Tuesday Night NBA

By Divol

Atlanta Hawks v Milwaukee Bucks



21st April 00:05 GMT

I liked five bets for this game but I will stop on only two and start with two of the three I passed. I like the Over bet for the game first of all. The teams have met four times this season and there was an Over in all four games. I think that the bookies usually set the total too low for two defensive teams, but without Bogut I believe that Bucks should be Over prone and Hawks are a team that can easily go on a high scoring game. Still, I don't like to take an Over after four Overs straight. Jennings has slightly injured his leg in the final minutes of the first game and if he can't run the floor like he usually does, the score can go down. Another bet I like is the Bucks, but the line is just too low to take. If it was 8 or 8.5 points, would have taken it without a doubt.

The two bets I do like, actually combine the two previous bets in them and they are Over plays for player's totals for Joe Johnson and John Salmons.

John Salmons comes off only 16 points in the first game, but he is the second if not the first option on offense for the Bucks and I doubt that Jennings will repeat his 34 points performance, so it will be up to Salmons to score 25+ points for Bucks to have a chance. Even with the 16 points from Game 1, Salmons still has 27 points average against the Hawks (in Bucks uniform) and I believe he will finish around this average, maybe even go on a 30+ points night.

With Johnson it's the same story more or less. He has average of 21.3 points, just like the total set for him. But, in the four games against the Bucks he scored 26 ppg and in all four games past the 21.5 points line. I believe that if Bucks will force a close game, Hawks will turn to their star and leader a bit more than in a blow out win and so, I fully expect him to score at least 24+ points. One more bet that I really like, but decided to pass is Josh Smith Under 14.5 points. In the four games against the Bucks, Smith scored 9, 11, 12 and 22 points. He isn't the type of player that will force the game on him and despite having 15 points average for the season, this average is combined with many low scoring games and few really high scoring, so to take Smith to score less than his total will usually bring money in the end of the season.



Picks:

Salmons to score Over 19.5 points, 1.93 odds - 3 units play – Pinnacle

Johnson to score Over 21.5 points, 1.84 odds - 2 units play - Pinnacle

Divol