Thursday Night NBA

By Divol

Chicago Bulls v Cleveland Cavaliers



23rd April 00:05 GMT

I have Chicago to lose 4 - 1 or 4 - 2, so I need them to win the game already and won't take them ML. I will take them with the line though. It's always dangerous to take a home team in a game that Brothers is a ref in, but still it's about time for Bulls to win or at least to put up a real fight to Cleveland. This is the same team that beat Cleveland twice in the regular season and the same team that did really nice results at home a few times over the season and this is one of those games that Cleveland can lose and still they won't get worried. I also believe that if Shaq can take 7 rebounds in 15 minutes in Game 2, he can do the same again tonight. With this game not being as important I can see Brown giving some more minutes to Shaq to take the rust of him and he can and should take 8+ rebounds and 12+ points.

Picks:

Chicago +4, 2.02 odds - 2.5 units play - Pinnacle

O'Neal to take Over 6.5 rebounds, 1.89 odds - 1.5 units play - Pinnacle

O'Neal to score Over 10.5 points, 1.89 odds - 1 units play - Pinnacle


Portland Trail Blazers v Phoenix Suns



23rd April 03:35 GMT

I still refuse to get in to the Blazers’ hype and the bookies agree with me. They still have Suns as the clear favourites to win the series. For them to do that, they must win one of the two next games that will be held in Portland. I think that taking Suns small today and double on them the next game if they lose today sounds like a good idea to me.  Batum's injury is a another heavy blow to Blazers’ desire to make it to the next round, since it forces Webster and Rudy to be solid today and if Batum will continue being out, it will force them to be solid in other games as well and that's too much for Blazers for me.

Pick: Suns -1, 1.95 odds - 1.5 units play - Pinnacle


Miami Heat v Boston Celtics



24th April 00:05 GMT

I will continue to take Under in this series and this time I will add a small play on the Heat and on Beasley. In the first two games, Heat scored 77 and 76 points. I do expect them to do better at home, but I think they will score no more than 90 points. Boston on the other hand know they won't score 100+ points again and will focus on defence as always. Boston should score 78 - 85 points and that leads me to the second bet. I fully believe that Boston will win this series, but this is the best chance for the Heat to win a game and they can even win it easily, around 91 - 77 points. Beasley has been poor in all the games but one against Boston this year, but he has to score 15+ points for Heat to have a chance and as I said, I do believe that they will win Game 3 and even cover it.

Picks:

Under 182 points, 1.95 - 3.5 units play - Pinnacle

Heat -4, 1.95 odds - 2.5 units play - Pinnacle

Beasley Over 13.5 points, 1.81 odds - 2 units play - Pinnacle


San Antonio Spurs v Dallas Mavericks



24th April 02:35 GMT

This is the type of series where it's almost always a good idea to back the dog and almost always a bad idea to back the favourite. I believe we can see at least two more road wins and at least one close game that will finish below the small line. I still have a lot of belief in Dallas. On the contrary, I waited for that home loss of the Mavs to start backing them. I believe they can come back home leading even 3 - 1, but at least 2 - 2. They are still the better team; they have been better on the road than at home all year and won many times in San Antonio before. If this bet loses, I will take Dallas again in Game 4 and this time I will take Dallas to win the series as well for nice odds.

Pick: Dallas +3, 2.01 odds - 3 units play - Pinnacle


Charlotte Bobcats  v Orlando Magic



24th April 19:05 GMT

This is truly the last chance for the Cats, one of the best home teams in the league to come back to the series. Both teams gave us the taste of what they can do. Each team made decent runs, but Magic been the first and the last ones to make the run and that what brought them two wins and split the ATS.  Still, we can see that Howard has trouble playing Cats and I believe that on the road the shots won't go as smooth as they did in the first two games at home. Cats on the other hand, can continue to produce the same defence, but with the percentage by Magic to drop and Cats should shoot better at home, they should be two points favourites, not 2 points dogs.

Pick: Charlotte +2, 1.95 odds - 4 units play - Pinnacle


Milwaukee Bucks v Atlanta Hawks



25th April 00:05 GMT

It's not easy to back the Bucks, but we could see that Bucks had the ability to make a comeback or to stay in the game. It can be a 4 - 0 sweep by the Hawks and they can head back to Atlanta tied 2 - 2, but somehow I got a feeling that Bucks will pull themselves together to win Game 3 and Hawks will do the job on Game 4 and come back to Atlanta to finish the deal.

Pick: Bucks -1, 1.94 odds - 2 units play - Pinnacle


Oklahoma City Thunder v Los Angeles Lakers



23rd April 02:35 GMT

Two bets I will take today and they are clearly value bets,  an area that I did a poor job this year (unlike usually) to be honest. I wouldn't have taken either bet with even money, but with those odds, I can't help to ask, what am I missing? Green scored below 14 points in 5 of the 6 games against Lakers. Now I agree that he was close in 4 of those 5 games and that he scores much better at home. But still, we see almost double chances for him to score more than 13.5 points than to score less. WHY? Second bet is Kobe against Durant. Kobe scored more than Kevin in 4 out of 6 games and lost only by 3 points one of the games. Kobe is hurt and Durant should explode at home I agree. But still, the line of point and a half in his favour already took care of that. Why do we see such a huge difference in odds? I believe that Kobe and Kevin would split in 10 games who will score more; maybe even Kobe will win 6 of the 10.

Picks:

Green Under 13.5 points, 2.18 - 2 units play - Pinnacle

Bryant +1.5 against Durant, 2.07 odds - 2 units play - Pinnacle

Divol