Friday Night NBA

By Divol

Utah Jazz v Denver Nuggets



24th April 03:35 GMT

Two player props I like today and they are Boozer Under 20.5 points and Billups Over 18.5 points. First of all, I really like the Under points prop on Boozer. He scored 19 and 20 against Denver in the series. He had a 16.8 ppg in the 4 games against Denver in the regular season. He has 19.5 ppg during the season and 20.6 ppg at home. How from all that people draw that Boozer has much better chance to score more than 20.5 points than not? Btw, Boozer scores 21 points in wins and 16.8 points in losses. Looking at the series odds, bookies are convinced (and so is the public) that Denver will win at least one road game. I believe that taking Under today and if it losses, to correct it in Game 4 is too good of a chance to pass.

The second bet is Over for Billups. While scoring only 18.4 points at home, he averages 20.8 points on the road, where usually Smith's three pointers often can't connect with the basket. He scored only 15 and 17 points in the two first games against Utah, but has season average of 27 points in the four games against Utah in the regular season. I doubt that the series will return to Denver without Billups scoring at least in one game 20+ points. So just like in Boozer's case, will take the bet and if it losses, will take it again in Game 4.

Both bets are available in many places, but I will take a bit better combination of both bets that gives 1 more point of confidence, but takes away the chance to split the bets.



Pick: Billups +3.5 points against Boozer - 1.85 odds - 2.5 units play - Gamebookers


Miami Heat v Boston Celtics



24th April 00:05 GMT
ESPN (00:00-02:30)

Rondo scored so far 8 and 10 points only in this series, but he was sick and questionable for the 1st game and I believe that now he should be in full condition. More important, Boston won both games and played them at home and today they play on the road and I believe they will lose. Rondo scores 14 points on the road while only 13.4 at home and scores better in games Boston losses than the ones they win. Mostly because when Boston plays poorly, he takes more on himself and when they play better, he focused on finding his team mates (as you can see in the fact that he passes 1.5 assists more in games Boston wins). In the three games against Miami in regular season he averaged 20 points, scoring 25 and 13 points in the games played in Miami. Today I believe he will score 14+ points.



Pick: Rondo Over 13.5 points, 2.12 odds - 2 units play - Pinnacle

Divol