Saturday Night NBA

By Divol

Los Angeles Lakers v Oklahoma City Thunder



25th April 02:35 GMT
ESPN (02:30-05:00)

I will be on three bets for this game and start with the smallest play and that is yet again, Under 13.5 points for Jeff Green from Oklahoma. I took this bet for Game 3 and to be honest, when he scored the first seven points for the Thunder, I wasn't too sure if the bet would win. But after scoring 7 points in two minutes, he scored only 3 points the rest of the game. I do agree with Green backers that the feeling is that he is "due" for a good game. Still, it's wrong to place such high odds on him failing to do so. He is yet to score 14+ points in this series and managed to do that only once in four games against Lakers in the regular season. 1 of 7 success rate and people still insist on him?

The problem with Green is his position. Westbrook is having a monster series and Durant is the star of the team so both positions of guard are occupied. In the paint, Thunder play most of the time with two big men - Ibaka, Krstic or Collison (two from the three). So most that leaves Green, Harden and Sefolosha to compete for that one open spot on the floor and pick up small minutes with Green as the second big man and while Durant gets some rest (Maynor and Westbrook cover 48 minutes for the PG position). So Green is not only getting small minutes, but he also suffers each time that one of his rivals has a big game. Sefolosha is the best Kobe defender (other than Durant) and Harden is the best scoring option from the three. So even when Green started the game scoring all 7 first points by the Thunder, he still played a bit less than 28 minutes, watching Harden getting 32 minutes and scoring 18 points. He is usually a 37+ minute’s player in regular season but his minutes can easily decline as I mentioned. He may finally prove me wrong today, but I will continue to fade him till he proves otherwise.

The two bigger bets are Over 9.5 points for Odom and Lakers to win. Odom is crucial to the Lakers’ team. He is the only guy on the floor that can take over the game other than Kobe of course. He can score from any range, has good passing abilities, can even play PG. Phil called him out after Game 3 and Lamar promised to finally appear for Game 4. I have little doubt that we will see all three Lakers big man, Gasol, Odom and Bynum scoring in double digits today and lead Lakers to the victory and that brings me to the second bet. I agree with Phil defending Kobe after Game 3 or more accurate, blame his team mates. It's really so easy to hide behind Kobe and let him win or lose the game, that team mates simply back down and give him the ball he demands so much.  Phil wants his players to be able to say no to Kobe and I'm not talking about Farmar/ Brown/ Sasha that rather jack up another three pointer, but about his big men. They need to come to Kobe in TO or during one of games pauses and tell him to start passing.

Kobe admitted he was surprised at Durant's defence and it's easy to understand why. Durant's arm size means that Kobe has to shoot as if he is shooting over a 7 footer while when he puts the ball on the floor; he faces not a 7 footer slow big man, but a quick guard that can move as fast as him and probably even faster. Kobe has never been about focusing the game on himself. He has no problem giving someone else to be "the man" in the final moments. He is all about getting that W.  Thunder won their first ever playoff game and after such an achievement the team feels that they did their thing. Don't let anyone tell you different. That doesn't mean they will give the game away and they can win tonight as well, but still, the feeling that they did what they needed, is a feeling that is almost impossible to get rid of. Today we will see Lakers dominant in the paint. I wanted to take it for bigger units, but to be honest, I didn't like the way Lakers handled the 4th quarter of Game 3.



So three bets today:

Under 13.5 points for Jeff Green - 2.16 odds - 2 units play - Pinnacle

Over 9.5 points for Odom - 1.85 odds - 2.5 units play - Bwin

Lakers to win - 2.06 odds - 3.5 units play - Pinnacle


Charlotte Bobcats  v Orlando Magic



24th April 19:05 GMT

Two players props I like today, on top of the Charlotte bet and they are Diaw Over 9.5 points and Lewis Under 14.5 points. Diaw's bet is a very simple one. 12 points average at home, 12.8 points against Orlando in the regular season and I do think that there is a little over reaction to two poor games by Diaw in Orlando. That was a different game. In Orlando in Game 2, the Cats were held to 3 points only after the first 6 minutes, something I doubt will happen tonight. Diaw is a player that shoots many mid range jumpers and he is crucial for the team that is trying to win Orlando and Howard's presence in the paint.

The second one is Lewis Under 14.5 points. Lewis scored 14.1 points in regular season overall, 13.9 points on the road, 12.6 points in games that Magic lost and 10.3 points in the three games he played against the Cats in regular season. In the playoffs he had a game of 19 points and a game of 13 points. How did one game of 19 points translate to 14.5 points total? I don't know. I think that 13 points is the right total and while 1.5 points isn't that much of a difference, I do feel that Orlando should struggle tonight and that tonight, it should be Howard's and Carter's time to try and bail out the Magic and not the other players.



Picks:

Diaw Over 9.5 points - 1.85 odds - 1.5 units play - Bwin

Rashard Lewis Under 14.5 points - 1.85 odds - 1.5 units play - Bwin


Milwaukee Bucks v Atlanta Hawks



25th April 00:05 GMT

I'm still waiting for a truly big game from John Salmons. He has 25.8 points average against the Hawks and in the three games in regular season scored 32, 32 and 28 points. Today for Bucks to have a chance, he must give another big game, simple as that.

As for the other bet, I will take Under on Josh Smith. As I said already, his numbers are lying. He explodes on in a while and suddenly his statistics tell a whole different story than they should. According to the statistics, Smith has 15 points average against the Bucks. But, he gave two nice games scoring 22 and 21 games, settling in the other three for 11, 9 and 12 points. With Hawks playing at least two more times against the Bucks, I'm very confident he won't score more than 15 points twice and there is a decent chance he won't score 15+ points even once.



Picks:

Salmons to score Over 20 points - 1.85 odds - 3 units play - Unibet

Josh Smith to score Under 16 points - 1.85 odds - 3 units play - Triobet


Portland Trail Blazers v Phoenix Suns



24th April 21:35 GMT

I believe that today's game should be much closer and Portland has even slightly better chance to win it. But, for this one, I rather take a bet on Miller to deliver better stats than Steve Nash with +3.5 handicap in favour of Miller So far playing each other this season, Nash won only once this matchup with this handicap. Today, for Portland to have a chance, Miller simply must deliver.



Pick: Miller +3.5 points + rebounds against Nash, 1.85 - 2.5 units play - Betsson

Divol