Divol's Sunday Basketball

By Divol

Miami Heat v Boston Celtics



25th April 18:05 GMT

It could be the final game of the series, but somehow I do believe that most chances are that there will be a Game 5. It's obvious that Boston are the better team in this series. They won at home with a full squad and they easily won over the Heat in Game 2 without Garnett. They came to Miami and won with Pierce buzzer beater. Still, you would think that Heat has some pride left in them, not to allow Boston a sweep and easy advance to the next round. Boston in the last two years have hardly won any playoff games on the road in the entire playoffs. I don't think they beat in a sweep any team in the last two decades. Heat are not a team I trust, but it's simply fading Boston than taking the Heat.

That brings me to the second bet and that is the Under and it's the main bet of the day for me. Miami have realized (I hope) that Boston does a good job on defence against them. If they want to win, they must do the same and stop Boston at a maximum 90 points and if possible, even at 85 points. I do worry that Boston can produce a throw away game and allow Heat to go on a 100+ night, but in that case, there is a chance, Boston won't score even 85 points and we still get that Under. 94 - 81 is my projected score here, with a game that Heat should be more energized and we should see a quarter in which even 30 points will be a blessing in a way to an easy cover.

Picks:

Under 186 points, 1.96 odds - 5 units play - Pinnacle

Heat -2, 1.93 odds - 2 units play - Pinnacle


Hapoel Holon v Ramat Gan



25th April 18:55 GMT

I think that despite the great win by Ramat Gan over Galil and despite their few good performances over the last few rounds, Holon at home in a game that is a must win for them is still a team that should easily win by 15+ points today. If Holon loses this one, they can finish the season last in the league and maybe face Bney Ha Sharon, the toughest of all possible opponents and without home court advantage. A win and they can have home court advantage and play a much easier opponent in the relegation playoffs.  As I said before, despite breaking my own rule a few times and paying for that, take Holon at home and fade them on the road.

Pick: Holon -7.5, 1.94 odds - 3 units play - Pinnacle


Bney Hasharon v Ironi Nahariyya



25th April 18:55 GMT

I have written about Holon already. Now why the other two? Bney Ha Sharon are the better team and this is H2H battle. The winner plays in the playoff for the right to get to the Final 4 and play for the title. The loser will play in a relegation playoff and can lose his place in the league. Bney Ha Sharon are so talented that I really doubt they will lose tonight.

Hapoel Gilboa/Galil v Hapoel Afula



25th April 18:55 GMT

Galil are just a much better team and need to win or they can lose HCA or at best, finish 4th and even if they make it to Final 4, play Maccabi in the Semi Finals.

Pick: Galil, Bney Ha Sharon and Holon, 2.00 odds - 2.5 units play - Stan James

Divol