Tuesday Night NBA

By Divol

Boston Celtics v Miami Heat



28th April 00:05 GMT

There are a number of bets I like here. Overall, I do believe that Boston will win, but I can see them winning by 30 points with Wade thinking of his future as a Heat in the 4th from the bench and I can see them sweating until the final second for the W, so I won't take the line, despite believing that Boston should win it in DD.

These bets I will take. I will start with the smallest play and that is Heat +2 in the 1st quarter. In the 7 games played between the teams so far, Boston won in 6 of them, trashed Miami easily in some of them but still won 1st quarter only once and even than only by 1 point. I wish I would have started taking this bet earlier in the series, but I'm not a quarter bettor and never was so it wasn't easy for me.

The second bet I like much more and that is Beasley to score Under 14.5 points. Beasley had two nice games in Miami. So what? He still has terrible ppg against Boston this season and he was poor this season on the road overall. I see no reason to believe he will wake up and deliver in money time.

The next bet is Under and that is again max stakes bet for me. I told you before the series that I like the Under bet, won it in Game 1 and lost three in a row since. Today we have got the highest total in the series and to cross it, you will need both teams to score 90+ points or to have one of the teams scoring 100+ points. Miami have yet to prove they can score 90+ points in Boston. I been thinking of taking Heat's TT Under, as the reason that the Under lost in Game 2 is 100+ points that Boston scored, but decided to go ahead and take the Under overall. Also a bet I really like is Under 47 in 2nd quarter. This is the quarter when the subs come out to play and In all four games so far in the playoffs and in 6 of the 7 games this season overall, there was an Under in the 2nd quarter and in all four games in the playoffs the Under was very easy and I see zero reason for it to change today.



Picks:

Miami +2 1st qtr, 2.05 odds - 2 units play - SBObet

Under 188 - 1.93 odds - 4 units play - Pinnacle

Beasley Under 14.5 points - 3 units play - 1.80 odds - Pinnacle

Pierce -4.5 points against Beasley - 2 units play - 1.85 odds - Expekt

Under 47 points in 2nd quarter, 1.90 odds - 4 units play - SBObet


Cleveland Cavaliers v Chicago Bulls



28th April 01:05 GMT
ESPN (01:00-03:30)

I believe that Cleveland will mostly toy with Chicago today. I can see them making an effort to win the first quarter and resting the rest of the game, but I would rather focus on Chicago's Under. Rose and Deng are banged up. I think they will play, but Rose is nothing without his explosiveness and it's hard to do with sprained ankle. I also think that Cleveland after showing their offensive arsenal in this series, will show the defensive arsenal that is almost just as rich.



Pick: Under 94 points for the Bulls, 1.90 odds - 2.5 units play - Expekt


Los Angeles Lakers v Oklahoma City Thunder



28th April 03:35 GMT
ESPN (03:30-06:00)

I do believe that Lakers will win but the odds are too low. As for the line, I believe that Lakers can cover, but they can lose the line as well. I believe that there is another bet that will almost certainly win if Lakers cover, but can and should win even if Thunder will manage to stay close and that is the Team Total Under for the Thunder.

Lakers desperately need a statement game. Having said that, I'm not sure if they can do that on offense. They can't connect from the three point line, Kobe is just not himself and I don't want to have my bet hanging on Odom and Artest to suddenly start playing offense. But on defence the Lakers can make a statement game and in practices and in talks with the media, they mostly talk about the defence. So far playing in LA, Thunder been struggling with scoring. Four trips to face the Lakers, scoring 85, 108, 79 and 92 points. So three of the four resulted in Team Total Under so far and I doubt the Under tendency will change tonight.

When Lakers want, they are the best defence team in the league. The stopped Denver and Phoenix at their home Under 100 points (a very tough mission) and Denver in LA on 89 points only. They stopped Spurs on 83 points in Texas and 89 in LA, Boston below 90 points in both games (despite losing one), stopped Utah and Portland at 82 points at their home and I can go on. They can really lock the defence, especially if they will be able to hold the ball and not turn it over and react better in transition defence, both areas that Phil focused the most preparing for this game.

I don't agree with those that say that Thunder proved they are the better team. I think that Phil outplayed Brooks so far. Lakers came to Oklahoma fired up and started with 10 - 0 to silence the crowd. Shooting can be good one day and bad, but I see no reason for Lakers to give anything but 110% on defence.

I also like three more bets for this game and they are Under 13.5 points for Green yet again for all the reasons I explained so far and with Green scoring much worse on the road and after he finally scored 15 points, he should cool off. Second bet is Bynum -7.5 points and rebounds against Krstic. I just can't get this bet. Bynum is one of the best if not the best Center in the West. Krstic is mediocre player at best. Bynum covered this line in 5 of the 6 times the two teams met, why would tonight be any different? Third bet is Lakers -2 at first quarter. Other than Game 4 blowout by the Thunder, Lakers did a great job in the 1st quarter. Today I doubt they will want Thunder to start feeling comfortable in Staples Center.



Picks:

Lakers -2 1st qtr, 1.91 odds - 2 units play - Boylesports

Thunder Under 94 points, 1.90 odds - 3 units play - Expekt

Bynum -7,5 points + rebounds against Krstic - 1.80 odds - 2.5 units play - Betsson

Green Under 13.5 points - 1.91 - 2.5 units play - Pinnacle


Dallas Mavericks v San Antonio Spurs



28th April 02:35 GMT

It's hard to pass the under bet tonight. I took the Under bet for the first two games, but since usually the result in SA a bit higher, avoided to play the Under in the last two games and each time regretted that. Now, with Dallas facing elimination, I will take the Under here without a doubt. I just can't see Dallas trying to play pretty basketball in such big game and I have yet to see Spurs playing pretty basketball. Spurs should have lost Game 4, but refs allowed them to do anything they wanted to Dallas players and threw out Najera for trying to fight back. Tonight I doubt refs will do the same to Dallas and Mavs have an open score to settle with Spurs not only basketball wise, but dirty fouls wise as well.

The line is high enough and hasn't moved almost in all the games, despite Under hitting over and over again and tonight we will see another dead Under I believe. I would like to take one Over bet here and that is Butler Over 15.5 points. Butler scored 22, 17, 2 and 17 points in four games. It's true that the average is 14.5 points, but I think you agree with me that average here doesn't do Butler justice.  He is an important puzzle of Mavs team and him getting such high odds to score Over 15.5 points just seems wrong to me.



Picks:

Butler Over 15.5 points, 2.08 odds - 1.5 units play - Pinnacle

Under 193 points, 1.95 odds - 5 units play - Pinnacle

Divol