Friday Night NBA

By Divol

Utah Jazz v Denver Nuggets



1st May 03:05 GMT

I was on Denver with the line in Game 5 and even won, but I was hugely disappointed with how Denver played. Lakers, Dallas, Suns - all came home to game 5 and didn't leave the opponent any chance. Denver was trailing at HT. It took Korver finishing the game with zero points (9 points average until then) and zero points overall from the bench besides Millsap. On the other side it required JR Smith shooting 4 from 4 until garbage minute (finished with 4 from 5) and still, despite it all, Utah was in the picture until the final two minutes.

Denver won twice in Utah in the last 10 visits there and four wins in the last 30 games, going 15 years back. I know that it's hard to judge this team based on the 1995 season, but still you get the picture that Nuggets struggle in Utah. Denver have also lost Nene for this game. Now he is their best big man. Dantley has had a hard time coaching this team and reacted poorly to K-Mart's injury and this is a much bigger injury, especially since both Birdman and K-Mart carry small injuries as well. I believe that tonight, Korver + Miles + Mathews will score better 2 from 10 from the 3 point line and that Denver won't shoot 52% from three point line as well.

Utah know they have got to close this one without leaving a chance for Denver, since it won't be easy for them to win two road games in this series.



Picks:

Utah -4.5, 1.91 odds - 2 units play - Paddy Power

Denver Under 106.5 points, 1.9 odds - 1.5 units play - Expekt /


Oklahoma City Thunder v Los Angeles Lakers



1st May 02:35 GMT

My problem with this series is that it reminds me too much of the Houston series last season. If I'm right, Lakers will lose tonight and win by 10+ points in Game 7. The problem is that I don't think that Lakers are as strong as they were last season and they know it, so they really shouldn't take any chances tonight. That being said, I give credit to the Thunder. They can beat LA at home, even if Lakers play a mediocre game, so unless Lakers play well this is a game that the home team can win. But I still think that Lakers can win the 1st quarter and can still keep the Thunder Under 98 points. First of all, the 1st quarter bet. Lakers won 4 of the 5 1st quarters played so far in this series, secondly and more important, this is huge for the Lakers. We all saw how their strong start made the crowd silent and they will want to repeat it today. I don't like to go against the home team in the 1st quarter, but will try it for small units.

As for the Under points for the Thunder, this is simple. Thunder struggled to score in LA, but scored 101 and 110 points at their home in this series. Still, having said that in the regular season, Thunder scored 91 points in one game and 98 points in the other at home, but it was after OT (scored 90 in regulation). Despite stopping the Thunder on only 79 points in Game 1, I feel that Lakers best defensive effort was in Game 5, despite conceding 87 points in that game. Bryant on Westbrook was a great move by Phil and Kobe surely enjoyed stopping Thunder biggest X-factor of the series.

The third bet and a really small one is on Lakers to win. I think that Lakers are due for a good road game. They haven't had one in April, so they will gladly close the month with the road win in the most important road game this month. I think that if Lakers’ plan works and they stop Thunder on 88 - 94 points, they are more than capable of scoring 95+ points.

If Thunder get out of their game plan, the young coach and the young roster can definitely lose their head and lose this game. After all, if Lakers manage to at least partially stop Durant and Westbrook, they will need at least two of the Harden, Green and Krstic options to show up or have a great game from Collison/ Ibake to win it.



Picks:

Lakers +1 - 1.94 odds - 1 unit play - Pinnacle

Lakers to win - 2.0 odds - 1 units play - Pinnacle

Thunder Under 98 points - 1.90 odds - 2.5 units play - Expekt /


Milwaukee Bucks v Atlanta Hawks



1st May 00:05 GMT

Here I will take Hawks to score Over 95.5 points and to win the game. I firmly believe that Hawks are the better team. For me, the idea that Bucks beat them three times in a row is simply amazing but for them to win four in a row? I will take my hat off for the Bucks in that case but they will have to prove me first that they can do it. I think that we won't see Hawks scoring again in such a dreadful percentage and I believe that usually things balance so I would expect them to have an even above average night tonight. Johnson I also doubt will score as little and this is the first game that the pressure is on the Bucks and despite Jennings denying it; it won't be easy to finally feel themselves as favourites to win the series.



Picks:

Atlanta -1, 1.85 odds - 2 units play - Pinnacle

Atlanta to score Over 95.5 points - 1.90 odds - 2 units play Expekt  

Divol