Monday Night NBA

By Divol

Phoenix Suns v San Antonio Spurs



4th May 03:30 GMT

First game of the series is always the worst and the best time to make bets. It's much easier to see first the teams play, how players and coaches match up and then draw conclusions. But it's also the best time, since the lines and the odds are still not adjusted by the public and the bookies so you often may find great bets. I think that the public and bookies see this series too similar to Suns series against Portland and I think they couldn't have been more wrong.  In the regular season, Suns struggled against Portland, just as they had in the playoffs, losing the first game both in regular season and the playoffs. Just like the regular season, where the first game was a last minute Over and then followed by two Under, the series in the playoff went the same way, with the two first games finishing in a tough Over and followed by Under. Amare scored 18, 23 and 27 points in regular season against Portland and made similar numbers in the playoffs against them. As for the Suns - Spurs series, let’s look at the regular season. Suns easily won both home games by double digits including one that was really important to both teams one week before the playoffs. All three games this season resulted in Over and Amare averaged 32.6 points against the Spurs and 27.5 in both games played at home against them.



Picks:

Suns -3 - 1.89 odds - 4 units play - Pinnacle

Over 203 points - 1.93 - 2.5 units play - Pinnacle

Amare Over 22.5 points - 1.85 - 2.5 units play - Bwin


Orlando Magic v Atlanta Hawks



5th May 01:05 GMT

It must be hard for the bookies to come with the right total for this game. Hawks finished the series with three Under results in a row, while Magic's series against the Cats ended 3 - 1 in favour of the Under. If we add the fact that all four games this season between the teams ended with Under and the fact that this is playoff, the time when defence rules, how can you set a total that is high enough to make sense, but still low enough given all the facts mentioned. We will see the answers after the first two games and I like the Under in Atlanta much more, but still, it's hard not to take the Under for low units and see if we should raise it as the series goes. Hawks failed to score 90 points even once against the Hawks this season. 82.25 points is the average of points scored by the Hawks against the Magic. They also didn't do too well in the last three games against the Bucks on offense, despite winning two of them and it will be hard for the Hawks to change their mind to offensive oriented.

As for the game itself, I am just really having trouble seeing the Hawks give any fight to Orlando. Orlando can kill them driving to the basket, shooting three pointers or just feeding the paint. Howard should be really hungry and the beast needs to be fed so I really expect a big series from Superman while Orlando prepare for Cleveland in Conference Finals. 98 - 83 is my projected score for the first game of this series.



Picks:

Magic -8.5, 1.92 odds - 3 units play - Pinnacle

Under 192 points - 1.91 odds - 2 units play - Pinnacle

Divol