The NBA Playoffs

By Divol

Atlanta Hawks v Orlando Magic



8th May 22:05 GMT

I really like the Under bet for this game. I won't take it for maximum stakes although I am really tempted, but I will take it for high unit's stake. First of all, the last 7 games, there has been a clear difference in results playing in Orlando and in Atlanta. While having 194 points average in games held in Orlando, in Atlanta the average was ridiculously low and stands on 169.6 points. Today it can easily be within those ranges again. First of all, Orlando are not the same shooting team on the road. They have very gifted shooters and can catch a great day in any location, but still Atlanta caught a lot of heat for not playing any defence in the 2nd half, allowing 63 points from Orlando and I fully expect the Hawks to focus on the defensive end of the floor. That is what most of the media and Hawks players are talking about and it's clear that Hawks don't have the tools to outscore Orlando when they score 110+ points.

I expect the Magic to play better defence as well. I know it sounds weird to talk about better defence from a team that allowed their rivals 84.5 points in the first two games, but Orlando can give strong defensive performances and they know that this could be the key game of the series. Hawks can make a comeback to the series. One win when it counts will do wonders for their confidence and if the series will return to Orlando with 2 - 2, who knows what can happen. I have a hunch that Hawks will win today, but not enough to place any money on it. But I do believe we will see both teams giving their best on defence and neither team will reach 100 points. 91 - 88 is my projected score, almost 15 points below the total offered for today.



Pick: Under 195 points, 1.93 odds - 3.5 units play - Pinnacle


Utah Jazz v Los Angeles Lakers



9th May 01:00 GMT

So far we got two road wins in two series of the second round. I would be really surprised to see all three teams do a 3 - 0, but Suns was the hardest game on paper. The line can also be important today. In that the last 22 games between the teams and the roster remained similar more or less, Utah won only five times. They did it by 8 twice, 5, 4 and 2 points. I really think that to see Lakers as such clear dogs and give them almost 2 - 1 odds is just wrong. Jazz covered by Nails in Game 1 and almost covered Game 2, but Lakers were in total control of both games. Did anyone that watched the games have any doubt of a Lakers win, including the strong start by Utah in the second game or the late lead by the Jazz in the first game? Lakers are just toying with Utah, causing their backers heart attacks, but they got what it takes to win the Jazz and do it with ease.

Even in the games that Utah manage to win, they do it in single digits and a 4.5 point line can really help in such a situation. Last year in Game 3, Utah beat the Lakers 88 - 86, by 2 points only. Then the line was in Utah's favour, this time Lakers are given a big line and it's too good of a bet to pass, at least for me. I can add that any rest gives the advantage to the Lakers first of all. We have all seen Lakers with the extra day of rest in Game 5 and 6 against the Thunder. If I'm the Lakers, I use Game 3 and the extra rest they got to close the series and then return to LA for Game 5 just to make it official. Still, I would rate Utah's chances to win as at least 50%, probably even higher so can't take the 4.5 points line as too big of a bet.



Pick: Lakers +4.5, 1.94 odds - 3 units play - Pinnacle


Boston Celtics v Cleveland Cavaliers



9th May 20:30 GMT

I will take Boston for this game. I think that if there is one thing that Boston has is pride. I expect them to come back different for Game 4. I doubt they will get 124 points again from Cleveland at home. Game 3 was really amazing. 59.5% from the field, 41.7% from 3pt, 91.2% (!!!) from FT and LeBron finishing 1st quarter with 21 points. I admit I watched only the third quarter, but I do think that the ease that Cleveland scored was a bit too much and I don't expect to see it this time. I believe we will see a much lower score in Game 4. I believe there is a decent chance that Boston will score again 95 points, but this time win the game. So far, the games in Boston had pretty high scores, but this is the key game of the series. Boston's win and the pressure will be on Cleveland that are the clear favourites in the series. A loss by Boston and the series is over.



Picks:

Boston +1, 1.94 odds - 2.5 units play - Pinnacle

Under 196.5 points, 1.95 odds, 2 units play - Pinnacle


San Antonio Spurs v Phoenix Suns



10th May 01:05 GMT

The series is not as over as perhaps many think. Yes, Phoenix will probably (and hopefully) will go to the next round, but this is the first time I think that they become clear favourites, the worst position possible to come and play the Spurs. I have made several bets based on Spurs’ Texan pride; almost all of them backfired on me. Still, I just can't believe they will allow their fierce rivals to celebrate going to the Conference Finals and sweeping the Spurs on their home floor in front of their fans.  Spurs would have won Game 3 if not for the amazing performance by Dragic that simply came out of nowhere and won the game. Maybe Spurs are too old to fight for the series that probably is already lost, but I believe that backing them against the Suns, who might be caught for the first time in the series a bit over confident is the right bet here.



Pick: Spurs -2.5, 1.91 odds - 4 units play - Bwin

Divol