Monday Night NBA

By Divol

I will go against the odds movement on both of today's games, not because of the movement but it just happens to be that way.

Utah Jazz v Los Angeles Lakers



11th may 03:35 GMT

I have Lakers to win the series 4 - 1 with 4 - 0 meaning money back, so I feel that taking a bet today on the Lakers overall and especially for those that took the series correct score bet as well has good value. First of all, Utah look broken. There are a lot of tickets available and the arena should really be far from full and players themselves speak about this series as over and about this game as the last of the season. Second and maybe more important, Lakers want to win this one. It's true they will lose 1.5 million if they win tonight but first of all, as Kobe said it, you don't want any more games since it creates a chance for unnecessary injury. More than that, as it looks right now Lakers should win tonight and then, given the fact that the series between Cleveland and Boston will have at least 6 games and I doubt that the series against the Magic will take less, Lakers can have a week of rest until the Finals and that is huge for Lakers that isn’t a young team, but also carries a lot of small and mediocre injuries.  This week of rest can be the difference between a repeat and a loss in the Finals.



Pick: Lakers to win, 2.45 odds - 2.5 units play - Pinnacle


Atlanta Hawks v Orlando Magic



11th May 01:05 GMT

I really think that the only two bets that have got value here are Magic -6 and Hawks to win but the bigger value by far is with the Hawks to win. First of all, the odds on the Magic. 1.33 odds. That means that if Magic wins three out of four such matches, 3 out of 4 I repeat, you will be in a the minus. That is crazy. I believe that the right line is 1.6 - 2.4 or 1.55 - 2.55, but not the odds given here. Hawks have a shot at this game. They played on even terms at home against all the teams in this league in the regular season, so while Magic are favourites, Hawks win shouldn't knock anyone out of their seats as the odds suggest. I'm not a conspiracy theories believer, but I also might add that with the Lakers - Utah series ending tonight there’s little problem, since Suns ended theirs  as well and the Conference Finals can begin, but it will be pretty boring in the East and one more game will be fun for everybody.



Pick: Hawks to win, 3.66 - 1.25 units play - Pinnacle

Divol