Thursday Night NBA

By Divol

Boston Celtics v Cleveland Cavaliers



14th May 01:05 GMT

Despite Kevin Garnett scoring 18 or 19 points in all 5 games so far, I have taken the Over on him only once and I really wish I did it few more times. I will try it today, although I expect a lower score than usual. That and the fact that Cleveland will try to focus a bit on him I think makes me take him for minimal units though. The main bet here is combined from a strong bet that I believe in and a feeling only that I'm afraid a bit to put money on and that is Under 97.5 points for Cleveland. I strongly believe in Under today. Why? Shaq talked about defence, Boston talked about defence. Cleveland can't be too pleased getting 120 points against Boston and will try to make keep them below 100 points. That means fewer minutes for Williams and Jamison, both holes in defence and more minutes for West and Hickson. That will probably mean fewer points on both ends of the floor. However, in the end if I had to pick, I would have taken Boston to win. Why? Just a feeling that the public are too confident that LeBron and Cleveland will suddenly appear in a series where besides Game 3, they played pretty bad, despite winning Game 1. This is why I would rather take Cleveland's Under only. My projected score here is 88 - 85 for Boston, but even if I'm wrong It's easier for me to see 101 - 95 for Boston and not 98 - 97 for Cleveland.

The last bet is also based on the assumption that Boston wins, but just like the first bet, even if Cleveland wins there is still a decent chance for the bet to win. Allen scored 18+ points in all three wins in the playoffs and scored 16 and 33 points in two regular season wins. The reason for that is that Boston needs Allen to perform well to have a chance since he is the best option to stretch the defence. Secondly, if Boston leads in the final minute, Cleveland will be looking to foul and Boston will try to have Allen with the ball as their best FT shooter.



Picks:

Kevin Garnett Over 16.5 points, 1.92 odds - 1 units play - Pinnacle

Cleveland Under 97.5 points, 1.90 odds - 4 units play - Expekt

Allen to score over 16.5 points - 1.85 odds - 2 units play - Triobet

Divol