NBA Playoffs

By Divol

Los Angeles Lakers v Phoenix Suns



Lakers will win this series. The Suns had a nice run, but they beat so far the 6th and 7th seeds in the playoff with HCA, with Spurs being awful this season if we put aside the series they had against Dallas and with Portland being injured. I don't get people jumping on the Suns wagon, but I'm glad they do. It gives us simply incredible value on the Lakers series bet that we simply must take. My only worry is that just like against Utah, Lakers will sweep again and will limit our profit here, so this time I took the sweep as a real scenario.

But first, why Lakers should sweep or worst case, win 4 - 1? Better coach, better players, a better star player, more experience and winners mentality. Just before their toughest match ups in the paint this playoff (no matter Orlando or Boston), they get the easiest match ups in the paint possible. Amare is a joke on defence. Sad joke for Suns fans, but still a joke. Frye as a Center? Lakers can pound the ball in the paint and win without any problem. What about Kobe? Can Hill guard him? J-Rich? Dudley? The answer is they can guard him, but they will fail doing so. You need to be athletic, you need a shot blocking threat in the paint waiting for Kobe and you need to be fast and with a big arm swing to do so. Can Hill really defend Kobe tight knowing that Amare and Frye are behind him in case Kobe goes past him? Kobe will score mid range if given space and will drive past his defender if he guarded tight. Boston in the finals two years ago helped Posey and Pierce and every time he got past them, he hit the wall of Garnett and Perkins. Suns just don't have it. They have much much worse players than Boozer, Millsap, Koufos and Fesenko.

Suns will need to hit 55%+ from 3pt to have a chance to extend it to 6 - 7 games series and they don't have a chance at winning this one. Lakers can beat Suns on defence, on offense, in the paint, from mid range. They can give each game Gasol or Kobe a rest and still win the series. I know that when it comes from Lakers fan it sounds homerish, but here you don't have to be a fan to see that. You just need not to be blind, make the bets and take the money.

Picks:

Lakers to win the series 4 - 0 - 8.29 odds - 1.5 units play - Pinnacle

Lakers to win the series 4 - 1 - 3.79 odds - 4 units play - Pinnacle

Lakers to win the series 4 - 2 - 5.35 odds - 1.5 units play - Pinnacle


Orlando Magic v Boston Celtics



I have no idea who wins this series, but I just can't pass the Boston value here. Three main thoughts guide me here.

1) Boston is just what Cleveland wanted to be, but couldn't - great match up for the Magic. Sheed isn't what he was, but he had been the ultimate Howard defender and will give at least one good game in this series doing so. Add Perkins and Garnett (that missed last year's series between the teams) and Big Baby and you get the toughest possible rival for Magic in the paint.

2) Boston last year was the same as Magic this year (almost) and we all remember how it ended. Magic came to the series without HCA and most people were sure we will see Boston go on to get kicked by Cleveland. But Boston, just like Orlando, come from their favourite position, being an underdog. Some teams thrive as underdogs and fail to perform as favourites, some the opposite. Boston without a doubt in the first group.

3) While Boston started the playoffs, Orlando were still in regular season. They still didn't need to make adjustments (and what they tried to do against Charlotte failed, despite sweeping them), they still haven't felt the playoff tension, knowing that the season is on the line, coming to the final minute trailing and gather themselves to win. Orlando, as many teams that lost series as favourites, can choke at the first sign of problems, simply because they had the bad luck of getting too easy an opponent before.

I can also add that Lewis and Carter can be big miss matches, but both, despite having a few good games still can't say they have had a great playoff. Lewis is the biggest miss match and he can win this series, especially with Nelson being hot as he is and being able to counter Rondo as far as offense goes (on defence Rondo is better). Orlando can win the series, but it won't be as easy as odds suggest.

Picks:

Boston to win 4 - 2 - 6.8 odds - 1 units play - Pinnacle

Boston to win the series - 3.31 odds - 0.5 units play - Pinnacle

Divol