Monday Night NBA

By Divol

Los Angeles Lakers v Phoenix Suns

18th May 02:00 GMT

First game of the series is rarely the right game to make a big play and most of the times a play at all. If we add the prolonged rest, it seems like an even worse idea. Still, we have a chance to take Lakers against the Suns with a very low line tonight. I think that 8 is the right line here.  Lakers always look at the first game of each series as the most important one. We all know the incredible record Phil Jackson has in series he won the first game in and winning Game 1 puts pressure on the opponents and helps Lakers of course. Also, Suns are 4 - 12 ATS in games that they lost as dogs and they failed to cover in all of their three losses to Lakers this season. So if you believe that Lakers will win tonight, no reason to think they will fail to cover.

I also believe that despite Lakers being the younger team, they needed the rest more than the Suns. The rest for Kobe and Bynum, Sasha and Odom as well can really bring the best out of them tonight. I wrote about the teams in the series bet, so won't repeat myself. 110 - 97 sounds about right as projected score, maybe 110 - 99 is even more accurate, but not too high. But still a Lakers DD win sounds about right for me tonight. The second bet is statistical only. Gasol has great average of 11.3 rebounds in the season and 13.1 rebounds in the playoffs. Still, against Phoenix Gasol recorded 5.66 rpg only this season and 7.5 rpg last year against them, despite averaging 9.6 rpg last year in general. I think that seeing such high odds for Under 11.5 rebounds is just wrong and 9.5 is the right total here.



Picks:

Lakers -6, 1.94 odds - 3.5 units play - Pinnacle

Gasol Under 11.5 rebounds, 2.13 odds - 1.5 units play - Pinnacle

Divol