Wednesday Night NBA

By Divol

Orlando Magic v Boston Celtics



27th May 01:30 GMT
ESPN (01:30-04:00)

Last game it was obvious that Boston either covers the line or loses the game. The second option happened and now the question is how both teams respond. So far, 3 of the 4 games in this series and 6 of the 8 games between the teams overall, resulted in road win. To even underline the road domination even more, I can point that the road team won ATS in 8 of the last 9 games between the teams.  Still, having said all that, I will back the Magic tonight and probably Boston in Game 6. It's hard to read the Magic team. They showed zero passion in Game 3 and went to trail 0 - 3 in the series, only to give a heroic performance in Game 4 and win when Boston made comeback after comeback and the easiest thing was to give up. Still, Magic fought their way to a win and in the end, as usually happens to the better teams, luck was on their side as well. To win Game 4, only to lose Game 5 in front of their fans would be a slap in their fans faces in my opinion. Anything but showing at least the same effort they gave in Game 4 would be simply disrespect for their fans that been there for them the entire season.

Magic realize that a win today will put enormous pressure on Boston, especially on their crowd in Game 6, the same crowd that probably saw another Boston team lose a 3 - 0 lead in the series this season already (in NHL). Boston are too veteran to begin to panic, but all Magic can do with their backs to the wall is win one game at a time and hope that confidence that they gain from win to win, together with pressure that Boston will start to feel, will allow Magic to do the unbelievable.  We need to remember that Magic won despite a terrible game from Carter - the worst he could possibly have. The bench are having their worst performance in the series, with Pietrus, Gortat and Williams remaining scoreless and shooting only 60% from FT line. There were many bright points as well of course, but the point is that it was far from being a perfect game from Orlando or anything like that.

Boston on the other hand didn't have that bad of a game. Wallace won't shoot 0 from 4 from behind the line or KG and Rondo finish the game with 23 points combined of course. But, Pierce with 32 points and some incredible baskets, Allen with 22 points and B2B three pointers that forced the OT are facts that you can't overlook as well. Another point that KG scored only 14 points, but it was his biggest number this series yet. So the trio gave a solid game and even great game, but still it wasn't enough. I think we will see Carter much more dominant tonight and I believe we will see Lewis going to work today. Howard probably won't repeat his 32 points performance, but the bench will be more productive.

As for Boston, there are number of concerns. Rondo is injured and it really starts to affect his game. Rondo without his explosiveness is just a guard that can't score in a team that is built on spacing the game. The fact that Tony Allen also carries an injury and that he and Finley don't give the production from the bench are big problems for Boston. Nate really should play today, but right now he is in the dog house for some reason. I might be wrong, but given the growing number of nagging injuries (Perkins injured as well), I can see Rivers giving up if Magic open a 10 - 15 points lead in the 2nd half and rather rest his stars and injured players to have them on top for Game 6.  Another bet that I like is Under for the game. So far, we really saw low scores and even Game 6, with the OT, finished with 188 points only. Both teams should come ready to give 120% of themselves and it should be mainly through defence. 89 - 78 is my predicted score and it's 20 points below the total for the game.



Picks:

Magic -4 - 1.99 - 2.5 units play - Pinnacle

Under 187 points, 1.91 odds - 4 units play - Betsafe

Howard Under 19.5 points - 2.1 odds - 2.5 units play - Bwin

Carter to score Over 15.5 points - 1.74 odds - 2.5 units play - Pinnacle

Lewis +4.5 points against Ray Allen - 1.90 odds - 3 units play - Gamebookers

Under 46.5 points in 3rd quarter - 1.94 odds - 2 units play - SBObet


Los Angeles Lakers v Phoenix Suns

28th May 01:05 GMT

It's time for me to decide if I believe in the Lakers or not. After taking them for the first two home games and easy wins, came two losses for them on the road and for me as a capper. The last play on them was a 9 units play, so if I believe in them, it should be a 10 units play so that is the play. First of all, I will return yet again to zone defence. This is not the reason they won the game. Lakers did a good job against it. It started with Kobe executing perfectly, passing the ball and making assists and not points and continued with his top scoring performance. Gasol played terrible, but in the end he also learned how to drive to the paint against zone. The reason for a loss is a coin toss/ home court advantage/ form (you name it). In the beginning of the 4th quarter, the teams shot 5 three pointers - 3 by the Suns, two of them contested and two by the Lakers that were completely open shots - that was in three attacks in a row. Result, a 9 - 0 run for the Suns. It could have easily been 6 - 0 run by the Lakers as well.

Another reason for the win is that Suns wanted it more. Suns got really fuelled by the home crowd and when you see Dudley taking offensive rebound jumping with Gasol and Odom, you know what team wanted it more. Key word here is "home", at least for me. Dudley shot 5 from 5 from the three point line in Game 2, but Suns failed to transfer it to real momentum and gain any lead. I also just doubt that Lakers will continue to shoot that poorly from the 3 point line. No question that Suns are the better shooting team. But still, Fisher, Odom and Artest are better than the 2 from 10 they shot in Game 4 from behind the arc, especially given the fact that many of those shots were completely open shots. I think that Lakers will win this one with ease, as they will come out really focused.



Picks:

Lakers -7, 1.90 - 5 units play - Pinnacle

Gasol Under 10.5 rebounds - 1.92 odds - 3 units play - Pinnacle

Divol