Friday Night NBA

By Divol

Orlando Magic v Boston Celtics



29th May 01:30 GMT

Boston will win the series. Most are rooting for the Magic, including myself, but still, Boston will win the series, today or in Game 7.

Why? First of all, Magic has two soft spots - one is their three point shots. They need them in good percentage and it's hard to do that in four games in a row. Second is Howard and his foul trouble. It has been a great series to Dwight as far as staying away from foul trouble goes, with 5 games that he didn't get a 5th foul even. Still, Howard has been really playing with fire. I believe he is a fair player, but he injured both Davis and Daniels in Game 5, hurt Pierce in Game 4 and I wouldn't be surprised if the refs will be asked by the NBA to look closer to Dwight's elbows. I can add that Boston should come today fired up and really tough. I wouldn't be surprised to see some scores settled and to see some Magic players spending time on the ground and it can really hurt the ability of Carter and Lewis to stay focused on the game. I can also see refs give some break to Perkins, after the league admitted he got tossed from Game 5 for no reason and was in foul trouble for most of the series.
Boston have been really consistent on offense in this series. They scored 92, 95, 94, 92 (after OT) and again 92 points. The question is how much will they allow Orlando to score and I believe that this time it won't be much. Boston is just the team to make that extra effort on defence and numbers usually even up, so after 113 points from the Magic in Game 5 and 52% from the field and from 3pt, I believe the number will drop.

The last point is that like I said few times before. Both teams feel comfortable, at least in the matches between them, to come from the position of underdog and that is what Boston are right now, despite being marked as favourites for the game and for the series. Suddenly, all of the talk is about Orlando and how they will be the first team to come back trailing from 0 - 3 and Boston sure don't feel like the favourites right now and that is fine for them I believe. 95 - 88 is my projected score here. On top of that, I will take Under in the 2nd quarter. So far, this is the quarter of really low scores and only twice in 9 games this season the total went Over, once by 0.5 point and once by 1.5 points. I will take two players props as well - Howard Under 19,5 points - No need to explain - been taking it all series long and I believe as I said there is a good chance he will get in some foul trouble tonight.

The Carter Over play is mix of three thoughts - first of all, he is due to a good game after two really bad ones. He wasn't bad against Boston in the first games and should bounce back sooner or later. Also, the total got really low, 13.5 points is just wrong, even if he won't reach it again; it feels like the right bet. The third thought is that this is kind of insurance on Boston and Under play. Hard to believe that Orlando will manage to beat Boston three games in a row with Carter being so poor and that the game will go Over if Carter will fail to score yet again. On the other hand, both Under and Boston bets can win, even if Carter will score his points (as we saw in Game 1 - 3).



Picks:

Howard Under 20.5 points - 1.85 odds - 3 units play - Bwin

Carter Over 13.5 points - 1.69 odds - 2.5 units play - Pinnacle

Under 189 points -1.92 odds - 5 units play - Canbet

Under 47.5 points in 2nd quarter - 1.83 odds - 2 units play - Paddy Power

Boston -3, 1.91 odds - 2 units play - Bwin

Divol