Finals Series Play

By Divol

Los Angeles Lakers v Boston Celtics



I have been thinking about this series from the moment both teams got to 2 - 0 leads in the Conference Finals. In the beginning of the year, Boston and Spurs were the two teams that worried me as a Lakers fan the most. They are veteran teams with proven winners on their rosters, good coaches and know how to win a playoff series and how to play playoff defence, something that I couldn't say about Denver, Orlando and Cleveland (the other contenders at the time).

As the season continued, Boston and Spurs looked bad. I think that Utah sweeping the series against Spurs and 3 home losses in a row were the rock bottom for the Spurs and Boston had many bad moments, like the 20 points defeat at home to Cleveland followed by the home loss to the Nets, three home losses in a row in the last month of the season and many other moments. Both surged back in the playoffs, but I do feel that Boston got lucky. While Spurs after beating Dallas (2nd seed at the West) got the Suns, a team they have abused over the years, Boston got higher challenges one after another. Miami, then Cleveland, the team that many thought to be the main candidates, then Orlando, the same team that eliminated them in Game 7 in Boston last year. They had to remain focused all the time and that is what probably helped them to keep the momentum going. Lakers had many ups and downs as well this year, especially as far as the way team played on the road. Too many times they found themselves incapable of motivating themselves against weak opponents or been just outplayed by second rank of teams such as Charlotte, Miami, Memphis etc... But, I think that while Boston and Lakers played well without their injured players, Lakers played too much with injured Kobe and it's important to remember when we look at their performance. Since Kobe had his knee drained after Lakers came back to LA with the series tied 2 - 2 against the Thunder, it's been a different Lakers team and a different Kobe.

As for the series before us, Lakers have the clear advantage. First of all, the revenge factor is huge here. In the Magic - Bird era, if I remember correctly my NBA history, Boston won the first Finals and Lakers won the next one between them. Kobe, Gasol and the rest of the Lakers remember the humiliation in Game 4, when they lost a 20+ points lead, the 39 points blowout in Game 6, the greeting by Celtics fans when Lakers bus was trying to leave Boston.  The same reason Suns swept the Spurs, the same reason why Boston made 3 - 0 against the Magic. When you got the right team, the revenge factor can carry you over the top and you will find suddenly that killer instinct that you need in the Finals, the same one that Lakers lacked in Game 4 in 2008.

The second point is that while Celtics are the same, only weaker from 2008 and losing Posey and Powe was a big loss, Lakers are different. Bynum, even injured, will add a lot to a bit soft frontcourt by the Lakers and Artest is a huge defensive boost over Radmanovich. But the second point wasn’t that Lakers are better and Celtics are worse than 2008 (that will be the third point), the point here is that Lakers know what to expect. Gasol knows what KG and Perkins will bring with them. He felt them every second of the 2008 Finals and will come ready. He probably won’t give the same series that he gave against Utah, but to expect him to be as inefficient as he was in 2008 will be wrong. Kobe knows how Boston defence traps him. They suck him in to a trap and then close on him with three – four players with Posey/ Pierce behind him and KG – Perkins wall in front of him. Lakers know exactly what to expect, while Boston just can’t say the same. I can add that usually, losers of series learn much better lesson than the winning team.

Now the third point is that in 2008, Boston had the HCA and still, Lakers could have gotten back to Boston leading 3 – 2 if not the really rare 20+ points comeback. Besides Game 6, the series was really close and since then the teams have changed. Tony Allen, Cassel, Brown, Powe, House, Glenn Davis and Posey as Boston bench in 2008 and Sheed, Glenn Davis, Tony Allen, Finley, Nate Robinson and Daniels as bench in 2010. I think you will agree that the 2008 bench was better by far. Now many will claim and be right that Rondo of 2008 wasn’t near to Rondo of 2010. But I think that Allen, KG and Pierce are on the decline and KG is really declining fast and just not as aggressive in 2010, not nearly even to his obsession to get the title in 2008. I think that things more or less even out. Lakers on the other hand, instead of having Odom and Radmanovich as starters in 2008 and have bench of Mihm, Farmar, Sasha, Walton and Turiaf, will have Artest and Bynum as starters and an asset as Odom on the bench instead of Mihm and that says it all as far as first sub for big guys goes.

The fourth point here is injuries. I read on forums many talks about Rondo and wonder if they work on the Boston medical staff. Rondo of the last two games against Orlando was the shadow of himself. He is injured and though no doubt he will play, I doubt, unless he will heal completely, he will be able to produce another series as he did against Cleveland. He is all about explosiveness so each injury is major for him, unlike players like Allen, Kobe, Pierce and many others that have their shot to fall back on. Second issue is Perkins. He is really hurt. He can hardly do anything other than foul and give his presence in the paint. People talk about Bynum’s injury, but Perkins injury is a lot worse than his. Bynum btw had his knee drained and if he will have the same resurrection as Kobe had after his knee was drained, Celtics are in trouble.

The fifth point is the HCA advantage. It is huge in the Finals format and there is a reason why the records are so one sided lately for teams that have the HCA advantage in the Finals and that lead 1 – 0, not to mention 2 – 0 in the series. Only one team managed to win all three home games without HCA and it was Detroit and that brings me to one play I have for the series.

Its Lakers to win 4 – 2. No, I’m not sure they will win 4 – 2, but it will give me really big room to manoeuvre during the series itself. As I see it, worst case for the Lakers is to head to Boston tied 1 – 1 and heading to 5th game tied 2 – 2. I believe that there is a good chance that Lakers will lead 3 – 1 or be tied 2 – 2 after the first 4 games. If it’s tied 2 – 2, we will simply have really big odds on Lakers winning Game 5 and worst case scenario lose, but will have the great odds. On the other hand, if Lakers win Game 5, they will be big favourites for Game 6 and we can easily put a bet on Celtics to win and green out. We can even bet on Boston in Game 5 and Boston in Game 6 and still get value actually. Now if Lakers will lead 3 – 1 before game 5, even greater. Lakers will be dogs, so a small bet on Lakers in Game 5 and if needed, on Boston in Game 6 will allow us to green out without hardly losing odds.

I think that this is a great starting point for the series and we will how things will play out as the series progresses.

Pick: Lakers to win the series 4 – 2 – 4 units play – 4.8 odds - Bluesq

Divol