The Cheltenham Festival

By Profit Swing

Today we are going to play a system I use for Ante Post selections on the Cheltenham Festival. It is based around ground changes and has been and hopefully will continue to be lucrative. The basic premise is that the ground at the festival will be very different to what we have witnessed most of the season and more importantly the ground the bookies have set their prices on.

Cheltenham has the best drainage of any racecourse in Britain and the weather may even push above freezing point by Mid March giving us very different ground conditions hopefully. If it is heavy then these bets won't win. That is the inherent danger in the system but the odds are in our favour that the ground will be quicker.

The first race we are going to play in is the Arkle on day one. I feel that many of the Irish horses at the top of the market have been overrated by the bookies and the media creating a false market. They have been winning races on deep Irish winter ground against each other and I think are worth taking on with some high class good ground horses. For instance, I’m not sure Sizing Europe will fancy a battle up the hill or that Captain Cee Bee will even get round or is the most robust of horses.

Our first selection is Emma Lavelle's Kangaroo Court currently available at 51.0 with Sportingbet. This horse won at Cheltenham in an egg and spoon race in the autumn when ridden by AP McCoy who described it as high class afterwards. It has everything I look for in an Arkle horse. It jumps well and stays at least three furlongs further as this could turn into a furious gallop with so many front runners in the race. This horse was put away as soon as the bad ground started with Cheltenham and Aintree in mind and may go straight there however if he does have a prep run and wins we will lose the price so we need to get on at this price

Pick: Kangaroo Court 1.5pts ew – ¼ 1,2,3 - 51.0 Sportingbet

Our second Arkle selection is the Ferdy Murphy trained Bedlam Boy. This is another who has slipped under the radar somewhat. This horse was a useful hurdler but was always going to make a better chaser and again has been brought along quietly by his master trainer. I know having spoken to them they think this horse is only a couple of pounds behind last year’s second Kalahari King so there is a lot of confidence behind this horse. Again we must get in before the price goes

Pick: Bedlam boy 1pt ew - ¼ 1,2,3 – 41.0 Bet365

The second race that we are going to play in now is the Queen Mother Champion Chase on day two. We are influenced by the same system but also what I call the "Fave might not show" system. Clive Smith and Paul Nicholls have decided if they have any lingering doubts that Master Minded is not at his best he will be put away for next year and they will not mind leaving the decision until the day. I cannot have Twist Magic at Cheltenham as he appears to hate the course and it is not the sort of track horses suddenly start acting on so we will put a line through him. Petit Robin is not top class and might even run in the Ryanair which leaves us with the two we must get on today. They are last year’s Arkle winner and runner up Forpadydeplasterer and Kalahari King. We know that they both like the track and act on good ground. The reason we have not seen them is their trainers will not run them on bad ground but both are fit and well and can run well fresh but may have prep runs . They are too big in the market because most punters do not back horses without seeing them running. Markets usually shorten after races but the price on these two has remained static owing to their prolonged absence. Of the two I just prefer Kalahari King as I think he has more scope for improvement than Forpaddy but it is tight. What is for certain is both horses will be heavily backed in the build-up and on the day so let us get on now

Pick: Kalahari King 1.5pts ew – ¼ 1,2,3 - 11.0 Coral / William Hill / Stan James / Paddy Power

Pick: Forpadydeplasterer 1pt ew – ¼ 1,2,3 – 10.0 William Hill / Bet365 / Coral

These are the four standout Ante Post selections but if any more spring up we will be on, and if you see anyone doing a rain dance on the day you have my permission to shoot them!