This Week's Golf

By Profit Swing

The Dubai Desert Classic

This week sees the end of the Desert Swing and it has been a roller-coaster for us Paul Casey from leading going in to the last round barely scraped a place and was actually pathetic for someone with his experience and talent. When he dropped out of contention with six holes left he relaxed and came home in two under par!  So this was not a player out of form, I think we will give him a wide berth for a while.

I hope everyone got on the Martin Kaymer bet for the Masters because I believe after this week it will be long gone another reason I was so keen to get everybody on early in the week. Kaymer played poorly last week (as I predicted he would) but is very keen to win this week on a course his caddy believes is made for him. The par fives all set up for his swing and the greens are very similar to the Abu Dhabi course he triumphed on two weeks ago. This could be the year when Kaymer goes up to the next level and while his price may not seem anything to write home about with doubts about the other favourites I believe he is a good strong win bet this week.

Pick: Kaymer 2 points win 12.0 Bet365

Our second selection is Simon Dyson who played well in patches last week but was disappointed with his driving. The rest of his game is beginning to hit top gear though and he enjoys this course more than the other two on the Desert Swing so could very well contend this week.

Pick: Dyson 0.5 points EW 67.0 1/4 1,2,3,4,5 Sportingbet

Our final two bets are two players who I rate as 67 chances but are available at 200 and 300 they meet my criteria for this tournament in terms of their iron play and attacking styles. Now attacking styles can lead to high scores of course but both are showing good form after spells in the doldrums and are players who could step up and contend.

The first is Marc Warren who has rededicated himself to the game over the winter and has had two top thirty finishes in the last two tournaments. I understand he has practiced well and likes the course set up and his price is bigger than his chance, my essential criteria.

Pick: Warren 0.5 points EW 1/4 1,2,3,4,5 201.0 Totesport

And lastly Pablo Larrazabal, the temperamental but highly talented birdie machine. His long game went to pieces last year and he may well have enjoyed his French Open win a little too much! He claims to have worked harder than ever over the winter and his driving stats were greatly improved last week. This course will suit and this is a guy I have been waiting to show some form before following. We have to latch on to this return to form before the bookies do let’s hope we have this week.

Pick: Larrazabal 0.5 EW 1/4 1,2,3,4,5 201.0 Betfred

Finally I was asked for my views on Stenson the only printable one is he is lacking focus at the moment and has only taken the Driver twice in the last two tournaments!!

I also think Westwood was extremely agitated after having to swap his beloved driver and think it may be a while before he has full confidence in the new one. I think that young Rory is a talent but is being overhyped, Wayne Riley asking the other presenters if he will win as many majors as Tiger is slightly silly when he has only won twice on tour and seems overly aggressive in last rounds in my view. Anyway although the last two Sundays have gone against us they have been two great last days golf if somewhat frustrating for Profit Swing but remember when hitting the crossbar you have to keep shooting!!

The Northern Trust Open 

This week we make our first foray on to the US Tour as it hits one of the great US courses the Riviera Country Club for the Northern Trust open. Unlike the majority of courses length is no advantage at all and you have to think your way round.

Our main selection is little Tim Clark who could very well break his duck on this tour. Most weeks he must be so sickened as the big hitters hit wedges into greens as he hits a six iron. He is playing his way into form and this early part of the year up until and including the Masters is his best time of year as he is sharp after playing the winter in South Africa. He has been placed so many times in the states but claims to have a new mindset this season and despite not winning in the US has won many times on other tours. I really fancy his chances this week of a place at the least.

Pick: Clark 1 point EW 1/4 1,2,3,4,5 36.0 Boylesports

Another player who relies on accuracy is Luke Donald placed here in the past he has become the forgotten man of European golf after a nasty wrist injury eighteen months ago. He now says he came back too early and only in the last couple of months has his confidence returned. He has a new caddy after parting company with his brother (sorry Mum) and knows if he wants to play Ryder Cup he has to start contending. This is one of his favourite courses I suppose because he is not the longest hitter so his iron play can really count this week. I just hope he has the self-belief because he has the game to contend this week.

Pick: Donald 1 point EW 1/4 1,2,3,4,5 71.0 Sky Bet

Our last selection is the veteran who loves this course and is said to be confident going in to this week Freddie Couples he knows this is one of the only courses he can compete on these days. Make no mistake still one of the great shot makers on the tour he feels he has at least two wins left in him on the main tour. Freddie even more than Mickelson will get the royal treatment this week and if he get off to a good start may well contend. Remember this is a course that will catch out many of the big hitters, as they will find trouble off the tee and not the usual chip up to the green that you see on this tour.

Pick: Couples 0.5 EW 1/4 1,2,3,4,5 81.0 Boylesports

Of the favourites Stricker never makes me comfortable on Sundays and seems to fade when in the lead. Furyk has never done well here strangely because it should suit and Ernie well putting blindfold maybe the best option, its very sad because tee to green he is still majestic. And finally Lefty well, embroiled in legal action over alleged cheating he seemed more interested in that than playing last week so at 6.5 we can maybe leave him for now I think!!

Profit Swing