AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am

By Prifit Swing

Overnight two players are tied for the lead four strokes clear of the field. The calm conditions have made for low scoring and yesterday Dustin Johnson and Paul Goydos hit two sizzling 64's to make this into something of a duel and providing us with a major bet.

Lets make one thing clear another player could win this, players are often flat after a big round and the pressure of being out in the last pairing etc so this is not actually a Matchplay duel. JB Holmes is third favourite and is capable of going low but for me has serious temperament questions to answer and faded quickly last week when getting a sniff of the lead.

So though I say they can win from four back I think it is hugely unlikely as I believe Dustin Johnson is in the form of his life and as reigning champion will be able to draw on that during any last round wobbles. He will set a target of shooting 67/68 which would make someone from the pack need to shoot a course record to win the event (course records are rarely set in the pressure cooker of the last round).

Of course Dustin Johnson is only joint leader so on paper Paul Goydos has a major chance. however if we look at his last round record when in contention it makes for grim reading. Now it’s possible that he can buck that trend but I feel in golf patterns of behaviour repeat themselves.

I take Johnson to win this by three shots and have him a 1.33 shot on my tissue. Our top tip Tim Clark is Ten shots back but I hope could still sneak a place but today is all about Dustin Johnson

Pick: Dustin Johnson 5 points win 1.9 Paddy Power

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