The Cheltenham Festival

By Profit Swing

At last the Bookmakers have gone non-runner no bet so we can now show our hand. This is the result of months of studying the form and gathering clues and information and I feel this could be a very profitable festival for us. Today I am putting up selections, which I feel, will be considerably shorter on the day. I do fancy other horses and there will be other bets and a full preview each day of the Festival but we need to get on these particular horses now.

The Byrne Group Festival Plate. Thursday March 18th 16:00 GMT

I have had a huge word for a Ferdy Murphy trained horse in this race who will go into the race carrying maximum confidence and it is felt that this horse could be considerably better than its Handicap mark.

Pick: Watch My Back 2.5 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4 11.0 VCBet

The Pertemps Final. Thursday March 18th14:05 GMT

We backed Triggerman last time out when he was given far too much to do by Richard Johnson and finished second. That is probably why he is so overpriced now as he has everything in his favour. With a strong pace guaranteed in what looks a poor renewal of this race Triggerman will be heavily backed on the day but we will already be on.

Pick: Triggerman 2.5 pts e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4 13.0 VCBet

The Jewson Novice Chase. Thursday March 18th 13:30 GMT

Gansey is a bold jumping front runner who is the apple of Sue Smiths eye and will be in the lead or near to it in what can be a rough race. He is the most impressive novice in terms of jumping I have seen for years and could go on to big things next year.

Pick: Gansey 1.5 pts e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4 21.0 William Hill

The Ryanair Chase. Thursday March 18th 14:40 GMT

This is my nap of the week Tranquil Sea a horse that will be smashed into by the Irish next week .It won the Paddy Power here in the Autumn over course and distance in a canter and had the speed to win a good race over two miles last time out. How Poquelin a horse it stuffed out of site last time they met can be favourite in some books is beyond me, must be the Nicholls factor however Tranquil Sea’s trainer Edward Ogrady knows how to train Festival winners.

Pick: Tranquil Sea 5 pts Win 5.5 Coral

The Gold Cup. Friday March 19th 15:20 GMT

All eyes will be on Kauto and Denman but we will hope to wrestle the prize from them both with Tricky Trickster who appears to be the forgotten horse of the race. He won the four miler at the festival last year before being sold to Paul Nicholls to be trained for the National but showed plenty of pace to win the Aon Chase last time after AP McCoy had called for a cab on Denman which of course was all the media talked about afterwards. This year’s race may not be the crawl that last year’s was and if as I fear Denman does not complete there is not much depth in the race a. Cooldine has not looked the same horse this year, Imperial Commander has stamina doubts and What a Friend does not act round Cheltenham and looks to be running at the owners insistence. Hedgehunter finished second in the Gold Cup a few seasons ago and this year I think we will see another stayer going very close.

Pick: Tricky Trickster 2.5 pts e/w 1/4 1,2,3 21.0 William Hill

The County Hurdle. Friday March 19th 14:05 GMT

I always preferred it when this race closed the whole Festival but it now is run early on the Friday so is no longer the get out stakes (thank you Rooster Booster). An Irish horse trained by Paul Nolan called Nobel Prince is the horse we are nailing our colours to. There was some confusion as to which race he was running in but as hoped Nolan has chosen the County Hurdle. A fast run two miles is ideal for this sound jumper who I am sure will be the subject of huge support as everyone I know in Ireland has told me this is their bet of the week. It is a highly progressive horse who they toyed with running in a championship race and was second last time out at Gowran to Luskas Lad who misses Cheltenham but was highly fancied for the Supreme Novices, that is rock solid form.

Pick: Nobel Prince 2.5 pts e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4 15.0 VCBet

The Royal and Sun Alliance Novice Chase. Wednesday March 17th 14:40 GMT

This is on paper a very competitive affair as you would expect but on closer inspection becomes a far easier puzzle to solve. All the media interest and chatroom talk has centred around three horses. They are the Nicky Henderson pair Long Run and Punchestowns and Diamond Harry and I believe there are solid grounds to oppose all three. Long Run has been backed for the Arkle heavily yesterday so he may not even line up. If he does run he has to jump round before we can see evidence of his talents. He has run twice in this country winning well but clobbering several fences on each occasion. They were at Warwick and Kempton; he will not get away with that at Cheltenham. The other Henderson horse is Punchestown who has survived an injury scare which is not ideal and nor was his jumping last time out at Sandown where he made a dreadful blunder that had Geraghty hanging round his neck. My concern with Diamond Harry is that he seems to need heavy ground to show his best which it is unlikely to be and even on heavy ground has kept coming on and off the bridle during his races. I am not convinced with his jumping either.

One horse who has no worries in the jumping department and has already shown a liking for Cheltenham and has no ground concerns is Weird Al. Last time out at Wetherby his jumping was sensational and his trainer Ian Williams reports him in even better form now he has to be the selection.

Pick: Weird Al 2.5 pts e/w 1/4 1,2,3 9.0 William Hill

These horses along with our earlier Ante Post Selections are our Cheltenham strike force. We have a really strong portfolio going into the Festival and rest assured I will be working tirelessly over the four days to get you the very best selections on the day. I don’t know about you but I am really looking forward to it!

Profit Swing