Final Round Golf Selections

By Profit Swing

Two fascinating final days on both tours and some real value to be had as both Tournaments in my mind have overpriced vulnerable favourites. I think we have a real chance of getting both beat and we are going to play the second favourite and a value outsider in each event.

Lets start in Spain where one shot leader Louis Oosthuizen trades heavily odds on and must be taken on as I am not sure about him as a front runner. We have supported him in the Middle East at big odds and he was placed for us but this is an entirely different challenge as he will be expected to outclass his playing partners today. One shot back is Robert Coles who played superbly yesterday and is a player going places; he also seems a very steady unflappable character which will help him today. I think he may well land his maiden tour win today and I think he is nearly double the price he should be. Lurking one shot further back is local hero Gabriel Canizares. He is in the second to last group and if he gets off to a flyer the crowd will become extremely partisan and this guy only knows one style of play and that is go for every flag. He too looks well overpriced and he will know this is a huge opportunity to win in his own country on the main Tour against a weak field.

Pick: 3 Points Win Robert Coles 6.5 Sky Bet

Pick: 1 Point EW 1/5 1,2,3 Gabriel Canizares 17.0 Totesport 

We now turn our attentions to Florida for the final round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational where Ernie Els leads by one from Ben Curtis. Els recently won at Doral and Sky were saying last night that he is back to his best but I am far from convinced. He certainly is playing well but is priced as though he is three clear not one. If we look at the last four tournaments where Els has led going in to the last round we see he has lost three times once blowing a two shot lead on the last hole. If you read that stat and still want to take 1.56 then be my guest. Remember too that this course has water and other dangers lurking and with last day pins on drying greens this tournament looks far from a done deal.

Ben Curtis looked superb last night until he dropped three shots in two holes on the back nine but what impressed me was the way he composed himself after that and finished well. He will not mind being one back and is putting as well as I have ever seen him. Curtis has long been mocked as the worst ever Major winner but he has three PGA Tour victories to his name and is not frightened to win when an opportunity comes his way. I think his putting may well win it for him today and he is amazing value to upset Ernie.

Eduardo Molinari is four back but only one back from third place yet you would not think that looking at his price this morning. Yesterday he went out with Mickelson and shot a lower score playing superb steady golf. All the hullabaloo surrounding Mickelson could easily have unsettled Molinari but he actually thrived. Let us not forget he is the reigning World Cup Champion along with his brother and I think he has a great chance of being placed at least.

Pick: 3 Points Win Ben Curtis  4.5 Sky Bet

Pick: 1 Point EW 1/5 1,2,3 Eduardo Molinari 29.0 Sky Bet  

Its going to be a fascinating days golf but that is not all for us as I have some strong news for today's racing at Doncaster that will be online by 12.30.

Good Luck   

Profit Swing