Aintree Day One

By Profit Swing

Cheltenham seems like only yesterday does it not where we hit more crossbars than the winner of Soccer AM' S popular crossbar challenge.

Profit Swing remains unbowed as we enter the best four days sport in the whole year. Aintree in the afternoon followed by Augusta National in the evenings. It is time for all distractions to be ignored, all pressing engagements to be placed on hold and anything in a brown envelope to remain unopened (always a good idea as its never good news)

Aintree is a festival that gets better and better each year in terms of prize money and quality of racing. It provides us with one major question that could determine how we do over the next three days that is do we back horses that ran at Cheltenham? My answer is no in most cases but not the dogmatic no that can be heard in all betting shops in the land. Cheltenham is the supreme test and can take the edge off all but a few horses. We certainly will not back anything under 11.0 that ran at Cheltenham. Big Bucks and Imperial Commander may well win at odds on today. Fine but they will not carry our finances. Desert Orchid, Master Minded and Istabraq all got turned over here after winning at Cheltenham and they were all stones clear on form!

The way to win at Aintree is to spot the horses that may well have had a chance at Cheltenham but were saved for today and were doing light work whilst others were running their hearts out round Prestbury Park.

14:00 3m 0f 110yrds Class 1 Bgc Partners Liverpool Hurdle (grade 1) (4yo plus)

Just as I cannot give Big Bucks as a selection I cannot give anything to beat him either so we will give this one a miss I'm afraid. Kayf Aramis may run well but he had a hard race at Cheltenham so no bet.

14:35 2m 0f 110yrds Class 1 Matalan Anniversary 4-y-o Novices' Hurdle (grade 1)

A tough race but one where we have a stand out selection in the Nick Williams trained Me Voici who skipped Cheltenham to wait for this and has his preferred soft ground. He won a grade one at Chepstow in the style of a real mudlark and I take him to win this. Nick Williams is becoming a man to have on your side in the big races and the bookmakers have not quite latched on to him just yet at the festivals.

Pick: Me Voici 1.5 points EW 1/5 1,2,3 8.5 Stan James (Best odds guaranteed)

15:10 3m 1f Class 1 Totesport Bowl Chase (grade 1) (5yo plus)

The big race of the day with a small field but bags of pace as Carruthers and Naccarat will go off like scalded cats. Both horses have a history of sulking if they cannot lead so this could be some spectacle over the first circuit but it will probably ruin both horses chance of winning. Calgary Bay is not good enough so that leaves us with Imperial Commander and What a Friend. Imperial Commander has never run two good races in a row for three years now that is a fact whatever the Trainer and jockey say plus this race is an afterthought and a bonus so I do not like him at the price.

What a Friend on the other hand has been aimed at this and his owner Sir Alex Ferguson took a lot of persuading to pull him out of the Gold Cup. His last run was a win in the Lexus Chase on ground similar to today and that is strong form as is his Hennesey second to the mighty Denman. I think he might outstay the Commander today and rates a good bet.

Pick: What a Friend 3 points Win 4.3 Bet365 (Best odds guaranteed)

15:45 2m 5f 110yrds Class 2 John Smith's Fox Hunters' Chase (national Course) (6yo plus)

Well here we go over the big fences for the first time this year and I wonder how long it will be before Richard Pitman tells us " I hope the jocks don't go too fast to the first Scu it could be carnage" as though the experienced amateurs have never seen the course before and think its a five furlong sprint at Epsom.

It’s as tough as ever and you have to be prepared for bad luck in running just as in the National itself. That said there are two horses at value prices who will give us a good run for our money. Baby Run will be a popular favourite but I am not sure his style of jumping will suit here plus he had a hard race to win the Foxhunters.

The two I like are Having a Cut and Whizzarr and we will take them each way against the field. Having a Cut was third last year when he should have gone on earlier and Whizzarr really impressed when winning at Hereford last time out. Both horses have been aimed at this race too.

Picks:

Having a Cut 1.5 points EW 1/4 1,2,3  12.0 Bet365 (Best odds guaranteed)

Whizzarr 1 point EW 1/5 1,2,3,4 26.0 Sportingbet

16:20 2m 0f Class 1 Alder Hey Imagine Appeal Red Rum Handicap Chase (grade 3) (5yo plus)

Two mile handicap chases round Aintree are always a spectacle and this should be just that. Last year’s second Lord Jay Jay has left Venetia Williams and joined David Evans but that does not put me off one bit. Evans has booked Liam Treadwell who knows the horse inside out and I think he can lead them a merry dance off this mark. The trainer reports him very well at home and yet again today has been his target!

Pick: 1 point EW 1/4 1,2,3,4 Lord Jay Jay 17.0 Bet365 (Best odds guaranteed)

16:55 2m 4f Class 1 Totepool Manifesto Novices' Chase (grade 2) (5yo plus)

The Nightingale scored very impressively last time out and jumped quickly out of bad ground. Both Nicholls and Walsh immediately targeted this race and I think they will be proved correct to have done so. Henrietta Knight said earlier in the season that Sommersby needed time between races so I am surprised to see him line up and Mad Max has made bad mistakes on his last two runs and like Cheltenham you don't get away with that round here.

Pick: The Nightingale 3 points Win 3.75 Bet365 (Best odds guaranteed)

17:30 2m 4f Class 1 Silver Cross Handicap Hurdle (listed) (4yo plus)

How about a nice big field handicap hurdle to finish. Goon then I hear you cry from behind the sofa but seriously I have been informed of one expected to run a huge race at a big price. Sir Tantalus Hawk won at Haydock last time in the style of an improved horse and the Swinbank yard feel that this step up in trip will bring about more improvement. He is a classy flat horse with a high cruising speed and is well overpriced this morning. I expect this horse to be heavily supported this afternoon so we need to take a price this morning.

Pick: Sir Tantallus Hawk 1 point EW 1/4 1,2,3,4 26.0 Bet365 (Best odds guaranteed)

Have a great first day with hopefully a few winners in the bag!

Profit Swing