Win some wonga with Tsonga in Shanghai
9th-16th November



Jo Wilfried Tsonga was always going to be a star, but in a career riddled by injuries thus far, the Frenchman has failed to live up to his undoubted potential.
However, there is no denying that when he gets on a winning streak, there are few players tough enough to go 'toe to toe' with this beast of a man.

In fact, in my opinion, I feel that on hard courts, only Andy Murray and Roger Federer are capable of beating Tsonga when he is in the mood, and he should be
looking to make up for lost time in the year-end Masters Cup tournament in Shanghai. Unfortunately for Tsonga, the Shanghai draw has meant that he is likely to have to
defeat both players to win the cup!

The tournament is divided into two groups - Gold Group and Red Group. With four players in each section, there are three matches per group, in a round-robin format.
The two players with the best records in each group proceed to the semi-finals knock-out stage, and then the final.

Tsonga's Gold Group features Novak Djokovic, Juan Martin Del Potro and Nikolai Davydenko. Despite this being a line-up of quality players, Tsonga is certainly capable
of winning all three matches. He has already exorcised the ghosts of the Australian Open final this year, having beaten group jolly Novak Djokovic twice in recent weeks,
and will be favourite to beat both Del Potro and Davydenko. Djokovic certainly seems like a false favourite to me, in what seems to be a carbon copy of what happened
towards the end of last year - he played too many tournaments throughout the year, and had nothing left for the Masters Cup, crashing out at the first hurdle.

Fatigue will be a big issue for Djokovic, and I feel that the same will apply to Del Potro, who has had a sensational break-through season. However, the sole reason he is in this tournament is because of a 23 match winning streak, which consisted of very few players in the top echelon of the ATP - to put it into perspective, he only beat two players inside the top 30 in this streak. Although I am a huge fan of Del Potro, and he has the potential to be a Grand Slam winner, results would indicate that at the moment he is somewhat of a flat-track bully, and so we simply can't part with our hard-earned with him to beat any of the best players in the world.

Nikolai Davydenko completes the Gold Group, in customary dark horse fashion. After the betting and alleged non-trying scandals of last season, Davydenko has flirted
between the sublime and the ridiculous this year, but he is hitting decent form after a good showing in Paris. Davydenko is certainly a confidence player, and could
pose a serious threat if he is in the right frame of mind. Considering that Djokovic and Del Potro could fall by the wayside, 3.0 on Davydenko to qualify from the group
seems like immense value, particularly as he topped his group here two years ago. Together with that, we'll have Tsonga to win the group @ 3.25. Tsonga would have
been an incredibly tempting outright bet for us @ 10.0, but considering it is likely he will have to face both Andy Murray and Roger Federer in the semi-finals and finals (assuming that both players qualify from the Red Group), we'll have to pass.

Elsewhere, the Red Group consists of Roger Federer, Andy Murray, Andy Roddick and Gilles Simon, with the Frenchman coming in as a late alternate for the injured Rafael
Nadal. Although it is a shame to not be blessed with the presence of Nadal, Simon is a deserved competitor after a Del Potro-esque streak in the last month or so.
Federer heads the betting with Murray as second favourite, which is hard to disagree with. Federer is looking for his fifth Masters Cup title, whereas Murray has
arguably been the form player in the world over the past two months. Both outright prices are plenty short enough at around 2.5 and 4.0 respectively, and their
prices to win the Red Group don't do anything else for us either, so we'll keep this group as a watching brief for now.

NJ's Bets:

Tsonga to win Gold Group - 1.5pts @ 3.25 (Sportingbet)

Davydenko to qualify from Gold Group - 3pts @ 3.0 (Sky Bet)

Nishant Joshi