India vs England ODI Series




Game One: 03:30 GMT 14/11/2008
Game Two: 03:30 GMT 17/11/2008
Game Three: 03:30 GMT 20/11/2008
Game Four: 08:30 GMT 23/11/2008
Game Five: 08:30 GMT 26/11/2008
Game Six: 03:30 GMT 29/11/2008
Game Seven: 08:30 GMT 07/12/2008

Both sides come into this series in contrasting fashion, and we are witnessing two teams in a state of flux. But first, I'll start off with our bet of the series...

One player I fancy to have a decent series is Samit Patel. His left-arm spin has been a revelation in his short career so far, and I would go so far as to say that he will be a world-class ODI player for England. It is easy to dump him in the 'part-time spinner' category, but this would be a dangerous assumption. He has already taken eight wickets in the four ODI innings he has bowled in, at a strike rate of 25.2. Patel's impressive List A strike rate of 28.6 would indicate that his fledgling international stats are no fluke either. He'd do well to come close to maintaining these stats throughout his career, as a strike rate of under 30.0 for spinners in ODI's is almost unheard of.

However, Patel is willing to flight the ball more than most spinners, and as such he is a more aggressive bowler than most. It is a strategy which has reaped rewards in domestic cricket and is also working for him in international cricket so far. This is in sharp contrast to his team mate Graeme Swann and his ODI strike rate of 38.1 - his List A S/R of 37.1 highlights that he is more of a defensive spinner. The Indian pitches will be geared to suit Patel and Swann, and I feel that they will profit from the slower surfaces. Under Kevin Pietersen's captaincy, Patel has been used in the Power Plays and also towards the end of the innings. This show of confidence from the captain has proven instrumental in giving Patel a license to bowl attacking lines without fear. He is often bowling at times when batsmen are looking to accelerate, meaning that he is likely to pick up cheap wickets.

One factor going in Patel's favour is that his competition is not particularly strong - I have already touched on why his counterpart Swann is unlikely to prosper, but the pace bowlers are also likely to wilt on this tour. A seven-match ODI series in India is like hell for the fittest and most seasoned players, but for England's fast bowlers I reckon this will be their toughest challenge yet, and I can't see any of them enjoying it. During such a gruelling series, fitness and motivation issues are likely to build up, and judging how England's bowlers have dropped like flies in previous series due to niggling injuries, Delhi Belly and other assorted ailments, I would be surprised and impressed if any fast bowler manages to play in all seven ODI's. Even taking this into account, the pitches are generally going to be geared towards being entertaining run fests, and the English pacers may well fall flat on their faces. The likes of James Anderson, Steve Harmison and Andrew Flintoff have never been too far away from a niggling injury, whereas Stuart Broad should prove cannon fodder to all comers on flat pitches.

Therefore, I feel that Samit Patel is head and shoulders above the rest of the England bowlers in terms of wicket-taking potential here - but the bookies disagree to quite an extent! BetFred and Sporting Bet both have Patel down as fifth favourite to finish highest English wicket-taker, at stand-out odds of 8.0, and this is simply begging to be backed.
I had Patel down as favourite in this market and there is a potentially awesome haul waiting for us.

As for the series itself, England have been revolutionised under Pietersen with an unbelievable series whitewash at home to South Africa. At the same time, my gut feeling is that the Stanford humiliation will be fresh in their minds, and there will still be a lingering air of 'what if?' around the England camp. After another humiliation on Tuesday against what was effectively a Mumbai 3rd XI, it is now twice in two weeks that England have now been bowled out for less than 100. Most of the pitches in this series are likely to have par scores of 280+, and I feel that with Ian Bell and Matt Prior at the top of the order are doomed for failure, especially when chasing high targets. They will simply put too much pressure on the middle/lower order with their often selfish and sluggish play. In modern day cricket, career strike rates languishing in the 70's are unacceptable for opening batsmen and I am prepared to predict that the Bell/Prior partnership will be brought to an abrupt halt during or shortly after this series.

Man for man, India are quite clearly the better team here. In stark contrast to the Prior/Bell combo, Gambhir and Sehwag are the most lethal openers in world cricket. Anderson and Broad are far too inconsistent and will surely struggle physically during a punishing tour, whereas India possess Zaheer Khan and Ishant Sharma, a feisty opening pair who have been impressive over the past year. Elsewhere, the middle orders are more evenly matched, even though England lack outright strength in depth. The likes of Owais Shah and Kevin Pietersen are quality performers, and although it may be blasphemous in some parts of the world to even compare their effectiveness to the likes of Sachin Tendulkar, they certainly have the potential to win matches for England.

Therefore, I feel that India have the edge in terms of their opening partnerships, both with bat and ball. It is so crucial to get off to a good start in these matches, and poor starts in both disciplines are automatically going to put England on the back foot in this series. Slowish starts were permissible on home soil, where the bowlers' lengths were well-suited to the pitches, and the slow starts from Prior/Bell could be tolerated due to the profligacy of late innings South African bowling. However, when chasing 300+ - which is inevitability in at least a couple of matches this series - poor starts can simply not be allowed. With England's confidence fragile, I feel that they could get a hammering here. They may put up some good showings but ultimately I feel that they will pay for being slow starters.

India are a well-oiled unit thanks to the magnificent leadership of Mahendra Singh Dhoni, who would probably be elected President tomorrow if there was an election tomorrow and his name was on the ballot paper, such is his popularity both within the team, and with the public. Given his humble beginnings, he is an unlikely leader of men, but geez does he do it well!

Forget the recently retired Sourav Ganguly and notable others, there is no doubt in my mind that Dhoni will become India's most successful captain in history. The 1.53 offered by Blue Square on an Indian series win should be snapped up - England simply lack the stamina and mental preparation to compete in a best-of-seven series with India on their home turf.

NJ's Bets:

Back Samit Patel to be England's highest wicket-taker - 5pts @ 8.0 (Betfred)

India to win the series - 5pts @ 1.53 (Bluesq)

Nishant Joshi