T20 World Cup 2009 Preview - Part One

After being locked in a basement á la Hostel/OldBoy for the past six months, I have managed to emerge from the murky depths of nothingness (East London) relatively unharmed. I walked out onto the streets of Romford, expecting to be blinded by the glorious summer sunshine, but I was left more underwhelmed than a Newcastle fan at his 'are we still a big club, like?' AGM. It was murky, rainy; smelling of BO and kebabs; although the BO/kebab flavour seems to be the East Londoner's nearest relative to eau de cologne. I do not like to judge people on such banalities, but I am only human.

More to the point, the Twenty20 World Cup is coming to England, and as long as the weather holds up, we're in for a spectacular summer of cricket, especially considering we have the Ashes on the horizon. Touch wood, we'll be able to spot some top value throughout the summer of 09 to build on our Priceform profits.

GROUPS

Group A: India, Bangladesh, Ireland
Group B: Pakistan, England, Netherlands
Group C: Australia, Sri Lanka, West Indies
Group D: New Zealand, South Africa, Scotland

The top two teams from each group will progress to Groups E and F respectively, followed by the semi-finals and final at Lord's on Sunday 21st June.

As there are so many permutations and random results likely to be thrown up, I believe that in terms of predicting an outright winner, it is futile to map a team's path to the final due to the sheer potential randomness of results. At best, I think it is fair enough to predict that the bottom seeds in each preliminary group should drop out without causing too much trouble to the seeded teams. Obviously West Indies are the liveliest of the lowest seeds, but given their terrible recent form and clear lack of direction and leadership, they should be seen off by the more clinical and focused Sri Lankans and Australians.

SPIN IS KING:

Please forgive me if I sound pretentious, but I feel that my Twenty20 theory should at least be listened to by the big-wigs at the ECB. As an aside, I would also be interested in working for Kings XI Punjab - as long as my fee would be based on an 'Indecent Proposal' salary involving Preity Zinta and a long weekend.

In my humble opinion, some teams simply haven't grasped the concept of Twenty20 cricket yet. Time and time again, we see spinners putting the brakes on and blocking momentum, yet we see teams consistently scared of picking too many spinners for fear of them getting smashed out of the park. But the fact remains that the best teams are those with threatening spinners. The psychological effect of having a world-class spinner in your side is tangible, particularly when defending a low score. The likes of Warne, Muralitharan et al. have proven this time and time again during the recent IPL, as inexperienced batsmen 'panic slog' in what is still a relatively new format. At the same time, the likes of Shahid Afridi, Daniel Vettori and Harbhajan Singh have proved to be fantastic at keeping the pressure up at one end.

Batsmen become weary of having to face a wicket-taking spinner, and taking the pace off the ball is definitely the way to go. The only exceptions are out-and-out quick bowlers, notably those with slingy actions - note the recent success of Lasith Malinga and Fidel Edwards in the IPL. They are two bowlers who have low trajectories and have the ability to deliver searing yorkers. Although they are often wayward in the longer forms of the game, it was incredible - and curious - to see them both perform so well in the format where they would be expected to be expensive.

Also, I like to see a team with a defined strategy in this form of the game - there is no shame in being obvious, so long as the logic is sound. For example, Umar Gul worked fantastically well for Pakistan in the inaugural T20 World Cup in 2007, when he was typically brought on in around the 12th over, and he would bowl a four over spell on the trot, typically bowling 90% full balls and yorkers with a hint of reverse swing, whilst also chucking in the odd bouncer for good measure. There was little subtlety or surprise about the strategy, but the fact is that quality batsmen had no answer to Gul's reverse swing.

We also saw during the IPL that even part-time spinners can be particularly effective, with Yuvraj Singh, Rohit Sharma and Suresh Raina putting in excellent performances. Crucially, they picked up wickets with ease, whilst also managing to keep their economy rates down with the best in the competition.

In terms of batting, I feel that this aspect of the T20 game is over-rated, especially at international level. Once you get to the heights of international cricket, most teams seem to have a few big hitters and are packed with quality. There is precious little to choose from between the top sides in terms of batting. Ignore the hype about Sehwag and listen to the hype about the likes of Suresh Raina, Owais Shah and AB de Villiers, who are able to merge the firepower of a Sehwag with the temperament and consistency of a Michael Bevan. Therefore, it is my strong argument that it's irrelevant as to whether your side is packed with players who can clear the ropes; it is the teams with in-form players who will not crack under pressure who will thrive.

MY CONTENDERS:

India

As reigning T20 World Cup champs, Dhoni's embarrassingly talented young Indian side justifiably begin the tournament as favourites, with their side packed with all-round talent and match-winning capabilities. Their bench strength is such that they are able to leave out the likes of Sachin Tendulkar from the squad, without a one-billion strong clamour for his inclusion. However, I have a few doubts about the Indian team going into the tournament. Their bowling is potent on its day, but I feel that the younger pacers seem to inevitably bowl far too many freebies if spearhead Zaheer Khan has an off day. Nearly 12 months ago, I predicted that Sehwag/Gambhir would grow to become the most formidable opening pair in world cricket since Greenidge/Haynes. However, both players were very much below-par when batting together for Delhi Daredevils during the IPL, and so they don't come into this tournament in great nick.

Finally, I feel that India are bound to suffer a bout of fatigue and over-confidence - I like to call this 'The Meh Syndrome', where players are well within their comfort zone and suffer from a lack of motivation to kill off matches in a clinical fashion. Coach Gary Kirsten mentioned that fatigue was his biggest concern, and after a month of non-stop Twenty20 cricket in the IPL, with a settled side where most players' places are already cemented, I am certain that there will be a degree of indifference within the ranks. I feel that the likes of Dhoni may just be getting a bit fed-up with living out of a suitcase at the moment and the whole side will be gagging for a break. With Dhoni out of nick, I feel that India also lack a reliable, consistent finisher. Yousuf Pathan and Yuvraj Singh can win matches single-handedly but the former is inconsistent at the best of times, with the latter living off a dream tournament in 2007. Man-for-man, India are probably the most potent side in the competition but I just feel that they lack some of the 'X-Factor' with which they won the inaugural tournament.

South Africa

Along with India, the South Africans who have chosen not to 'Go Kolpak' are the form side of the past year. Led by Graeme Smith, SA are a formidable side, full of confidence. The most interesting aspect of the side is their spin department, which has traditionally been seen as a weakness. However, with the emergence of Johann Botha as a bona fide world-class limited overs spinner - perhaps the most under-rated limited overs bowler going at the moment - and the recent displays of Roelof van der Merwe, South Africa can suddenly boast eight overs of economical spin bowling during the middle overs. Along with JP Duminy, who boasted a golden arm during the IPL, South Africa's spin department is their most under-stated strength. The likes of Duminy and AB de Villiers were among the top performers during the IPL, and it will be an awesome sight to watch two of the world's most exciting young prospects in full flow. Along with Albie Morkel and Mark Boucher, South Africa showcase a confident middle order with a clinical ability to finish off matches.

Sri Lanka

My dark horses for the tournament, I feel that Sri Lanka have an impressive side. Although a little light in middle order batting, their top order is experienced and classy. However, their bowling is their undeniable strength, with Malinga, Kulasekara, Thushara, Muralitharan, and Mendis available as front-line bowlers. This is quite exciting considering that Jayasuriya and Maharoof are also available as back-up. With two world-class spin options - although I do feel that Mendis is short on T20 experience - and the unorthodox but deadly Malinga able to fire in searing yorkers at the death, I am confident that Sri Lanka are the type of team that will be formidable to beat once they get some momentum. Under new captain Kumar Sangakkarra, and in their first tournament after the Lahore terrorist attacks, the Sri Lankans should come back to the international fold with renewed vigour, team spirit and purpose.

Best of the rest

Pakistan should never be under-estimated, and I would rate their bowling line-up as second best in the tournament after Sri Lanka. Although I feel that bowling is more important than batting in this format, since the 2007 T20 World Cup, Pakistan have lost the likes of Imran Nazir to the ICL (although he may return, it will not be in time for this competition). Their top order remains woefully inconsistent and so they are a nightmare to rely on from a betting perspective. Barring Kamran Akmal, Younis Khan, Shoaib Malik and Misbah-Ul-Haq, their batting is just too amateur and so they are unfortunately a swerve for us. However, watch out for Tanvir/Gul/Ajmal/Afridi, just about as good a bowling line-up as you can get in this format - Afridi's bowling has improved to the extent that he is now essentially a specialist bowler, and the unheralded Saeed Ajmal made life so difficult for the Aussies in their recent ODI series that they had the nerve to report him for chucking. Just the typical sour grapes from the Aussies, then.

Australia have an excellent T20 side on paper, but I feel that their absence from the recent IPL - some injuries, the clashing tour of Pakistan (ironically in Abu Dhabi), and the withdrawals of Ponting/Clarke/Johnson from the tournament altogether - means that they will be a tad short of sharpness and Twenty20 rhythm. The likes of Ponting and Clarke also pose a dilemma in the batting order, as neither player has yet proven themselves in this format, yet they take up crucial positions in the line-up. The withdrawals of three of their key players from the IPL would also hint that their focus lies away from this format. Finally, Australia lack a quality spin option, and apart from Johnson/Lee, the medium-pacers look very vulnerable indeed. Simply amazed that people can back Australia at prices as short as 6.0 on this evidence. The likes of Sri Lanka offer far better value, at better prices...

Although my strongest fancies for the tournament are Sri Lanka and South Africa, I cannot bring myself to back either teams at current prices. Although I feel that both teams will go far, backing each team to win their individual matches in-running is likely to yield a greater profit than backing outright. Gun to the head, I would back South Africa @ 5.0 to win the tournament, but I will resist.

But fear not, as tomorrow I will return with no less than 15 ante-post bets!

Until tomorrow

NJ