T20 World Cup 2009 Preview - Part Deux

THE BETS

I teased you with foreplay in the last article: now for the money-makers!

Bangladesh to win Group A - a speculative bet, but its spectacular value in my book. Every once in a while, Bangladesh cause a shock to put the cats amongst the pigeons, and India are there for the taking if Bangladesh play to their potential. India lost their first warm-up match vs New Zealand while Bangladesh can take plenty of positive from defeats to Australia and Sri Lanka. With the Indians potentially taking their opening game against Bangladesh for granted, there is a shock on the cards. In the inaugural T20 World Cup, Bangladesh defeated West Indies and South Africa, and they also beat India in the ICC World Cup earlier that year, and they have a track record of shock wins in big tournaments. A win against Ireland should be a formality, and so odds of 10.0 are outstanding on the Bangers to win the group, especially considering that they are currently around 5.0 to win their match against India.

Sri Lanka to win Group C - in terms of Twenty20 pedigree, in my opinion they are significantly ahead of Australia and West Indies. Their main competition in this group will come from Australia, who are odds-on in places. I make it a lot closer than this, and VC are offering a stand-out price of 3.0.

Tillekaratne Dilshan to be top SL batsman - a stand-out performer for his sheer consistency during the IPL, Dilshan is likely open the batting for Sri Lanka and we should back him to continue his good form here.

Shane Watson to be top Aus batsman - another batsman who is likely to open for his side, he looks to be hitting form at the right time after a lengthy injury lay-off. A brilliant ODI series with the bat against Pakistan in Abu Dhabi should give plenty of confidence to IPL 2008's Player of the Tournament. 6.0 is simply far too big for Australia's in-form opener.

Shakib to be top Bang batsman - Shakib is Bangladesh's rising star of the past two years, having quietly risen to no. 1 in the ICC ODI all-rounder rankings earlier this year. He is Bangladesh's most consistent batsman and score his runs at a fair whack. He is certainly worth a bet to top their run charts here, especially as Ladbrokes dare to make him fourth favourite!

Dwayne Bravo to be top WI batsman - along with Chris Gayle, Bravo was the only West Indian batsman to play in this year's IPL. Having played in most of Mumbai Indians' matches and emerged with some form during the ODI series with England, he is another player who warrants a punt at the odds.

Owais Shah to be top England batsman - was a non-playing squad member for Delhi Daredevils, but he will be better for the experience. In my opinion he is England's best limited overs finisher, and he is certainly at home in this format, as showed by his match-winning 75 in last year's domestic T20 Final.

Johann Botha to be top SA bowler - I have already mentioned Botha as South Africa's trump bowler in this format, and although he is relatively defensive - and hence so economical - he is certainly worth a speculative punt at Ladbrokes's stand-out 7.0.

Mitchell Johnson and Brett Lee to be top Aus bowlers - both bowlers come into the tournament in red-hot form, while the usually reliably Nathan Bracken has been notably off-form for the past few months. If we dutch Johnson and Lee to be top Aussie wicket-taker, we get odds of about evens, which is cracking value considering Australia's lack of other wicket-taking options.

Highest tournament individual score - in 89 T20I's so far, there has only been one century - by Chris Gayle vs South Africa in 2007. Although the pitches in England should be conducive to big scores, with only one century so far in 89 matches, StanJames seem to be taking a big risk in assuming that centuries will be scored against minnows, even though we didn't see this in 2007. Even taking into the more difficult South African pitches in 2007, the high individual scores against the non-test nations didn't really threaten crossing the century mark, and so odds-against is a corking bet here. Also, it should be noted that this bet depends a lot on which teams bat first - if Ireland/Scotland/Holland bat first, it will be nigh on impossible to make a century, typically chasing scores under 150.

Albie Morkel to score most sixes in tournament - one of the most prolific six-hitters in the game, I'm choosing Morkel as his sole purpose while batting seems to be to hit the ball as far as he can. He relishes the big stage and as I expect SA to progress deep into the tournament, I am happy to take Morkel at a big price here. Ross Taylor and Brendon McCullum are also worthy contenders here, but its touch and go as to whether New Zealand will reach the semi-finals so their prices are both short enough. I would have also liked to back Suresh Raina, both in the top six-hitter and top batsman markets, but it seems that bookies have cottoned onto his excellent form and the prices on him aren't quite juicy enough to pile into.

Total tournament sixes - the warm-up games so far have not seen a tremendous amount of sixes, and although the three tournament grounds should each be conducive for six-hitting, Boylesports' line of under/over 243.5 seems very much on the optimistic side.

Total tournament maidens - Again, Boylesports' line for total maidens seems very optimistic. Once we get to the latter stages of the tournament, maidens should be extremely hard to come by, and it's hard to see where Boylesports think that more than 11 maidens will come from, on pitches tailor-made for batting.

Tournament highest team score - I am weary of taking on so many 1.83 'pick em' bets, but I am one to side more with statistics and history than speculation. 200+ scores are not entirely common in English domestic cricket, except on roads such as Taunton. The 230 mark has only rarely been threatened in England, let alone crossed - think Taunton, again! In international cricket, the 230 mark has only been crossed once (260 by SL vs Kenya in 2007), and in domestic cricket, out of Lord's/The Oval/Trent Bridge, the highest score in all matches at these grounds remains 218 by Surrey at Lord's.

NJ's Bets:

Bangladesh to win Group A - 3pts @ 10.0 (Betfred )

Sri Lanka to win Group C - 4pts @ 3.0 (Victor Chandler)

Dilshan top SL batsman - 1pt E/W (1, 2, 3, 1/4) @ 4.5 (Ladbrokes)

Watson top Aus batsman - 1.5pts E/W (1, 2, 3, 1/4) @ 6.0 (Totesport)

Shakib top Bang batsman 1.5pts E/W (1, 2, 3, 1/4) @ 6.5 (Boylesports )

Bravo top WI batsman - 1.5pts E/W (1, 2, 3, 1/4) @ 9.0 (Bet365)

Shah top Eng batsman - 1.5pts E/W (1, 2, 3, 1/4) @ 7.0 (Ladbrokes)

Botha top SA bowler - 1.5pts @ 7.0 (Ladbrokes)

Mitchell Johnson top Australian wicket-taker - 1.6pts @ 4.0 (Ladbrokes)

Brett Lee top Australian wicket-taker - 1.4pts @ 5.0 (Ladbrokes)

Top tournament individual score under 108 runs - 4pts @ 2.63 (StanJames)

Albie Morkel top tournament six-hitter - 1.5pts E/W (1, 2, 3, 1/4) @ 26.0 (Boylesports )

Total tournament sixes - under 243.5 sixes - 2.5pts @ 1.83 (Boylesports )

Total tournament maidens - under 11.5 maidens - 5pts @ 1.83 (Boylesports )

Highest tournament score under 229.5 - 4pts @ 1.83 (Boylesports )

All the best for a profitable and enjoyable tournament.

NJ.