NJ's Premier League Preview - Part Three
By Nishant Joshi

The Race for Europe

Totesport have matched together West Ham, Sunderland, Fulham and Blackburn in another mini-league, and Fulham have to be the stand-out bet here @ 4.33 to top this group. After and outstanding season in 08/09, Roy Hodgson's side now have to combat the fatigue from a potentially arduous European campaign. However, having finished above all of these teams last season, Fulham should not be under-estimated and are worth a speculative punt to top the group. It

Coping With Fatigue Roy Hodgson

would be phenomenal if Fulham were able to repeat their success of last year, but more realistic is a top-half finish, which would still be classed as another success for Roy Hodgson.

Ahead of this pack of four are the likes of Aston Villa, Everton, Tottenham and Manchester City. City have spent a fortune on proven Premiership quality, and should have a better season than last. However, I think that Mark Hughes will struggle to produce a tight-knit side and once again they will endure a frustrating season in spite of their big name buys. The likes of Robinho, Bellamy and Adebayor have previous for being stroppy when things aren't going their way, and City will once again struggle to grind out away wins against the more physical teams.

Tottenham can only improve on last season's position, but still have plenty of dead weight in amongst the undoubted talent of Modric, Keane and Defoe. Their defence of Woodgate and King are more likely to keel over than Jordan on a night out, and this is the greatest concern for Spurs fans. Europe should be achieved comfortably enough, but their points tally has once again been over-estimated by the bookies.

Instead, the two less fashionable but more capable teams of the group continue to be under-rated. Aston Villa and Everton have been exceptionally consistent in the last two seasons, and as such they have been over-priced compared to the flashier Spurs and City sides. Although Everton haven't made any permanent signings during the transfer window, the Joleon Lescott situation will only serve to strengthen the side - if Lescott stays, then it shows Everton's bloody-minded commitment to keeping hold of their best players. If Lescott goes, then Moyes will have £20 million to splash out on a better player than Lescott. Incidentally, I do expect Lescott to leave, simply because you can't turn down £22 million for a player whom you bought for just £5 million just two years ago. No club in the world apart from City would be willing to fork out such silly money for a player not even first pick for England.

Crucially, Everton managed to land fifth spot last year, without the services of Tim Cahill, Yakubu and Mikel Arteta for most of the season. Cahill remains one of the most under-rated players in the country, and the return of the trio will essentially be like new signings. If Louis Saha can stay fit, then I am adamant that Everton are the dark horses in the top half, and they should be favourites for fifth place. They should be able to challenge Arsenal for fourth place.

Meanwhile, Aston Villa have lost the services of Gareth Barry to Man City and replaced him with Stewart Downing. However, Downing is likely to be out injured until Christmas, and it leaves Villa with a gaping hole in midfield. Habib Beye is a terrible signing to replace the retired Martin Laursen, and Villa may well struggle to keep up with City and Spurs this season.

NJ's Bets:

Fulham to win Group C - 3pts @ 4.33 - Totesport

Everton over 57.5pts - 5pts @ 1.83 - PaddyPower

Man City under 67.5pts - 5pts @ 1.83 - Sky Bet

Tottenham under 60.5pts - 5pts @ 1.83 - PaddyPower

Everton to beat Spurs season match bet - 5pts @ 2.1 - Victor Chandler

Everton to win the league with +26pts handicap - 4pts @ 16 (E/W, 1-5, 1/4) - Bet365

Everton win league without the Big 4 - 5pts @ 6.0 - (E/W, 1-5, 1/4) - Ladbrokes sportsbook