NJ's Twenty20 Finals Day Preview
By Nishant Joshi

Kent and Sussex head the outright betting here but I feel that the true value lies with third favourites Somerset. They are packed with aggressive batting with the likes of Trescothick, Kieswetter, Hildreth, Judas Langer and Trego all likely to flourish on a flat batting surface. However, they are generally available at 4.0 to win the tournament, but we should snap up Coral's offer on 'team to score most sixes' instead, as that's where the true value should lies.

Somerset top the sixes chart this season and the top five all have the potential to be murderous on their day. Somerset play Kent in their first match, which looks like a bit of a toss-up, but I strongly fancy Somerset to chase down any total, so the toss will be more crucial than normal. It's incredible to see Sussex topping the betting for most sixes, as they've scored precious few, with only Dwayne Smith making any mark in terms of

"In Form" Marcus Trescothick

clearing the rope. Although I fancy Somerset to win, the best value of the day is in them to score the most sixes at 3.5. If they reach the final, they should outscore the other teams in terms of sixes, even if they lose the final.

Boylesports have put their total finals day sixes line at 18.5, which seems enough on the short side to warrant a bet at 1.83. We should get a fair run for our money here, considering the sides raise their game for the finals and there were 22 sixes last year.

Coral have included Marcus Trescothick, Joe Denly, Murray Goodwin and Nicky Boje in a mini-group as to who will score most runs on the day. Trescothick is bang in form, having scored prolifically throughout the season and topped it off with an unbeaten and rapid half-century against Gloucestershire on Thursday. He rightly tops the group as favourite, and I strongly fancy him to do well again here. He is by far and away the most talented and experienced international player of the group, and is hitting the ball sweetly at the moment. I think that Somerset should reach the finals which automatically means this bet is in with a shout. Goodwin and Boje are middle order players and I think it's frankly ludicrous that Boje has been chosen for this group, and Denly is opener for Kent, who I feel will get knocked out at the first attempt by Somerset. We can get on Trescothick at juicy odds of 3.25.

Skybet are another bookie who seem to have over-rated Boje's abilities with the bat. He's certainly a handy batsman, but he really isn't one to be relied upon. Neither is Dwayne Smith of Sussex, but he is higher in the order than Boje and tops the Sussex batting charts with 277 runs in 11 games this season. In stark contrast, Boje has only scored 100 runs in eight innings this season, so there is plenty of reason to back Smith to score more than Boje in the Northamptonshire vs Sussex game.

Remember the name Craig Kieswetter - born a South African, but now apparently an Englishman by virtue of an English mother. He is a young, dynamic wicket-keeping batsman who has impressed me every time I've seen him. He is eligible to play for England next February and I would be appalled if he did not slot straight into the ODI squad. I am adamant that he will become a permanent fixture for England. Although his wicket-keeping is still a fair way behind that of the likes of Matt Prior, his batting record demands inclusion into the side, and I fully expect him to challenge the likes of Kevin Pietersen in terms of flair and sheer number of runs scored for England. He is in good nick and a big hitter, and I expect him to flourish on finals day.

Another Somerset player who I fancy to do well on the day is Peter Trego. Somewhat of a journeyman until now, he has on occasions provided breath-taking firepower this season, and is my wildcard selection to do well on the big stage. He is batting with more confidence than ever before, and it's likely that we see him promoted if the Cidermen are in need of quick runs.

Finally, Boylesports also offer the chance of a final day hat-trick at 17.0. Ryan McLaren of Kent already achieved this feat on a finals day just a couple of years back, and with the added intensity of the day, I would suggest that a hat-trick under pressured circumstances is more likely than usual. 17.0 would certainly be a cheeky back rather than a lay. If nothing else, it also means that with our sixes bet, we are in the happy position of wishing on both sixes and wickets!

NJ's Bets:

Somerset to score most sixes on the day - 4pts @ 3.5 - Coral

Over 18.5 sixes on the day - 4pts @ 1.83 - Boylesports

Trescothick to top mini-group of batsmen - 4pts @ 3.25 - Coral

Smith to score more runs than Boje - 5pts @ 1.91 - Sky Bet

Craig Kieswetter top batsman on finals day - 1pt @ 19.0 (EW 1/4 1,2,3,4) - Sky Bet

Peter Trego top batsman on finals day - 1pt @ 51.0 (EW 1/4 1,2,3,4) - Boylesports

Peter Trego most sixes on finals day - 1.5pts @ 17.0 (EW 1/4 1,2,3,4) - Boylesports

Hat-trick on the day - 1pt @ 17.0 - Boylesports