Sony Ericsson Championships - Doha 2009
By Nishant Joshi

Last year I tipped Venus Williams to win this event at 6.5, reasoning that it was a two-horse race between the Williams sisters - and she duly hosed home. Not much has changed a year on - when they play to their potential, the Williams sisters are clearly the best in the field by quite a distance. This year, Serena has the added incentive of the chance to re-gain the coveted year-end no. 1 world ranking which she has so clearly craved.

White Group:

Dinara Safina
Caroline Wozniacki
Victoria Azarenka
Jelena Jankovic

Here are the H2H stats for each player vs their group: Safina is 8-4; Wozniacki is 1-5; Azarenka is 4-8 and Jankovic is 8-4.

This is most certainly the weaker group and all four would fancy their chances to progress to the semi-finals. World no. 1 Dinara Safina has suffered another poor end to the year after starting with so much promise, and struggled with her infamous double-faultitis during the US Open last month before being dumped out unceremoniously. Wozniacki and Azarenka have both blazed a trail this year, while Jankovic has been relatively consistent - but the problem here is that all four players have recently thrown in the odd shocker. However, in a group where each player has a fair shout of finishing top, Wozniacki surely has to be worth an interest at odds of 6.0 with Coral. She reached the US Open final and although she retired ***SUSPICIOUSLY*** while a set and 5-0 up last week, if she plays all three matches then she has an even chance of qualifying and a fair chance of finishing first in a jaded line-up.

Maroon Group:

Serena Williams
Svetlana Kuznetsova
Elena Dementieva
Venus Williams

Having won the Australian Open and Wimbledon this year, Serena is 22-16; French Open champ Kuznetsova is 12-12; Dementieva is a woeful 10-21 and Venus is 22-17. However, it should be noted that the sisters have played 22 matches between them, with Serena leading the H2H 12-10.

The main difference from this year and last year is that Serena comes in with clear motivation, with the aim of overtaking Safina as world no. 1. Also she should be relatively fresh after another year where she seems to have been on more shopping trips than played in tournaments. However, she is a generally available at about 3.5, which might seem a fair price in theory - but in reality you would have to feel that Venus must be the play at 8.0 outright. Having won the tournament last year, she should be marginal second favourite behind her sister, and the discrepancy in prices is too vast to ignore.

As long as Venus beats Kuznetsova and Dementieva then she won't have to face Serena in the semi-final, and so she represents excellent E/W value here. The 12-10 H2H in favour of Serena indicates how close the rivalry of the sisters is and so I'm erring on the side of caution and not going all in on the outright win.

NJ's Bets:

Caroline Wozniacki to win White Group - 1pt @ 6.0 (Coral)

Venus Williams to win tournament - 3pts @ 8.0 (E/W, 1,2, 1/3 - Bluesq , 888sport)