NJ's Australian Open 2010 Men's Preview

By Nishant Joshi

It can be said with some confidence that this will be the most open men's Grand Slam in recent history. With severe question marks hanging over many perennial front-runners, I feel that it may well be worth turning nocturnal for the next couple of weeks in order to truly enjoy this tournament.

In terms of recent history, the Australian Open always seems to bless us with some cracking five-setters - if you don't believe me, just have a look at this highlights reel from the Nadal vs Verdasco semi-final last year; the longest grand slam match in history at just over five hours long, and for my money, the greatest match I've ever had the privilege of witnessing.



In the last few years, Australia has always thrown up a fair few surprise packages. The likes of Clement, Johansson, Baghdatis, Gonzalez, Tsonga and Verdasco have come out of nowhere to remove top seeds at this tournament, and I'm sure that there will be another breakthrough player this year. As usual, the likes of Federer, Nadal, Murray et al. dominate the betting, but as mentioned previously, there are significant question marks hanging over each of them.

Federer has certainly lost his aura over the past 18 months, and in my opinion it's easy to explain why. Having suffered from glandular fever in early 2009 - an illness which usually takes six months to recover fully, during which low levels of physical activity are advised - his long-time girlfriend (and now wife) Mirka gave birth to twins last summer.

This would prove to have an understandably significant impact on his priorities, especially with his young family often travelling around the world with him. It was apparent that the ruthless focus is no longer there at critical times, and his forehand has started to leak an unprecedented amount of unforced errors. Most notably, he has also allowed the likes of Nikolay Davydenko, Andy Roddick and Robin Soderling to break winless streaks against him which have lasted for years. Extrabet offer 4.0 on Federer winning the title; a price which is sure to tempt punters purely by virtue of reputation, but one which I can pass on quite happily. Nevertheless, it should be noted that Federer always brings his best game to the biggest stage, having reached the semi-finals in Grand Slams on 22 consecutive occasions. After that stat, 4.0 could well seem tempting on the Swiss phenomenon, but there are enough dangers in his draw for me to swerve him for now.

Probably the biggest reason to avoid Federer would be his fallibility in losing matches from winning positions, something which was unheard of just two years ago. His capitulation against Del Potro in last September's US Open final bordered on tragic, yet during the post-match presentation and interviews he had lost the emotion that he had shown when losing last year's Australian Open final.

In a build-up interview, Federer said: "I feel my game's really where it's supposed to be, so I can only put in the best effort I can and hope that the results will follow." Two years ago, he would have said something to the effect of "Everybody else is turning up for second place." Let's not forget, this supposedly humble man once booked tickets to the final of the US Open for his good buddy and philanderer Tiger Woods, before the tournament had even started.

There is no questioning the talent of this great man, but I am forced to question his motivation if he ends up facing a revved-up player in hot form, such as...

Nikolay Davydenko is the main threat in Federer's quarter, and as the form player on tour he should be considered a serious chance for the title outright. The Russian has failed to replicate his season form on the biggest stage, and at the moment he would go down as one of the greatest players to never win a Grand Slam. However, having won the end-of-season ATP finals to cap off a phenomenal end to last season, he is in with an excellent chance here. Davydenko finally broke his duck against Federer in the ATP finals, and beat him in straight sets in an exhibition match in Doha two weeks ago - an event which he won after overturning a 6-0 first set deficit against Nadal in the final.

Federer's other main threat in the top half of the draw is no. 3 seed Novak Djokovic, who won his only major here in 2007. Djokovic enjoyed another solid year in 2009, with his greatest triumph being the Paris Masters indoor tournament towards the back end of the year. He is rather evenly matched with Davydenko at the moment, even though he leads the H2H 3-1, but the Serb remains the biggest 'clutch' player on tour along with Nadal. As such, he is a player who we have backed with much success in the past, and he certainly seems well-prepared for this tournament.

Having spent the past two weeks in Melbourne, he will be well acclimatised to the deadly heat and humidity, which goes some way towards alleviating my biggest concern about him, after he retired with 'heat exhaustion' against Roddick last year. He is also has a new coach this year in Todd Martin, whose professionalism has reflected well so far on his charge. After Djokovic won the Paris Masters in a final set tie-break against home favourite Gael Monfils, his sheer bloody-mindedness and determination were apparent for all to see. By watching this young man beating his chest and pumping his fists, it was palpably evident that Djokovic is a born winner, with unwavering self-belief.

In the bottom half of the draw, there are a lot more potential banana skins for the top seeds, with Del Potro, Roddick, Nadal, Murray all in the mix with the likes of Gonzalez, Cilic, Wawrinka, Stepanek and Berdych - players all with the potential to cause an upset.

British/Scottish/Star Wars fans' hope Andy Murray has dropped down to no. 5 seed for this tournament, meaning that he has a much tougher time with his draw. His form in 2009 was befitting of a top player, but his failure in Grand Slams was a great disappointment to his fans. His best performance was a semi-final appearance at Wimbledon, but somebody who has aspirations for the no. 1 slot should not be bombing out before the semi-finals to the likes of Verdasco (Aus Open), Gonzalez (French Open) and Cilic (US Open). The manner of those defeats was most disappointing, as he was completely swept off the court each time. Having shown little improvement in Grand Slams over the past year, in an open field and the more dangerous half of the draw, people backing Murray to win his first major at 6.5 are too optimistic for their own good.

Rafael Nadal endured a difficult 2009, having won the Australian Open but missing a large chunk of the season due to injury. When he returned in the hard court swing, he was clearly not himself, and was liable to getting blown away by the big hitters, with notable defeats coming against Djokovic, Cilic and Del Potro, amongst others. I have always maintained that Nadal's hard court game cannot be sustained over an entire career, and that any big hitter on his day should be able to beat him fairly comfortably. Rafa's strengths rely on his stamina, mental strength and grinding the opponent down. However, last season it became apparent that his knees would not survive more than a couple of years with his current style of play, and as a result it is reported that he has lost up to 12lbs of muscle in the past few months.

I feel that this will help him in the long run, and I am also of the opinion that 'body-builder' muscle is totally surplus to requirements in tennis anyway. Having huge biceps is great for the ego perhaps; but by and large it is unnecessary in terms of playing tennis, and only adds to the physical burden of being a 'grinder'. Therefore, I feel that a more streamlined Nadal will be able to enjoy a prolonged career, and scarily, become even quicker and more agile. However, the problem remains the same - over a best of five sets match, many in the top 15 are capable of beating him if they play aggressively and play to the best of their ability. There are simply too many players capable of dismantling Nadal on current form for us to consider backing him - having lost to del Potro in straight sets during the US Open, I'd be surprised if Nadal managed to avenge that defeat in particular.

Juan Martin del Potro was the surprise package in 2009 - although he had enjoyed a stellar 2008, most of his 20+ winning streak was compiled against lower-ranked players, and he showed impressive improvement during the year to climb even further up the rankings and win the US Open. His form tailed off towards the end of the year and his level is difficult to gauge at the moment. Moreover, having withdrawn from the Kooyong tournament last week with a wrist injury, there is enough doubt to avoid backing del Potro here. By the same token, I anticipate the Argentinean to have a tough time of it in 2010 - though incredibly gifted, I think that he will waver slightly and most likely will not push further up the rankings.

Marin Cilic is a player who I have admired for a while now, and I get the feeling that he might just be this year's wildcard. He beat Andy Murray at last year's US Open and has managed to become more consistent on his previously error-strewn forehand wing. He is in the same quarter as del Potro and Roddick, and I feel that he has an excellent chance of progressing. He has lost to del Potro in four sets both times they have played but having successfully defended his Chennai title last week, and with previous wins over Roddick, Nadal and Murray, there really is nothing for the young Croat to fear in his half of the draw. You can back him at 41.0 outright and with del Potro, Murray and Nadal all in single figures, Cilic is a great value bet as an outside prospect.

With question marks over Nadal and Murray in the 4th quarter, I think that it wouldn't be the worst idea to have a punt at opposing both of them early doors. Radek Stepanek is a player with all the shots in the book, but his Grand Slam record is awful for somebody of his talent - he has never reached the second week of the Australian Open. However, 2009 was an excellent year for the ugliest man in tennis, with his highlight being a record-breaking Davis Cup win over Ivo Karlovic, winning 16-14 in the fifth set (he faces Karlovic again in the first round). His confidence is as high as it's been in years, and having beaten Andy Murray in the Paris Masters, he finally managed to beat a player who had thrashed him in each previous meeting. The Czech has a 0-4 record against Nadal, although each meeting has been relatively close. Overall, with Nadal and Murray strong joint favourites to win the quarter, the bookies aren't giving a prayer to any other player - but as my esteemed colleague Big Joe would say, it would be rude not to back Stepanek to win the 4th quarter at a staggering 26.0.

Overall, I think that Cilic is the stand-out value play in terms of the outright market - he's in form, and most likely to cause a shock in a half where he can happily stand toe-to-toe with all his opponents. In the top half, the big dilemma is whether or not to back Davydenko. Slated to face Federer in the quarter-finals, should we back against the Swiss reaching 23 Grand Slam semi-finals in a row? Not just yet, in my opinion. Djokovic has the easier path to the semi-final, and with Davydenko now a relatively short price in the outright market, I'm quite happy to hold fire on the Russian just now.

NJ's Oz Open Bets:

Djokovic to win outright - 3pts E/W (1,2, 1/2) @ 8.0 (Sportingbet )

Marin Cilic to win outright - 2.25pts E/W (1,2, 1/2) @ 41.0 (Sportingbet )

Stepanek to win 4th quarter - 1.5pts @ 26.0 (Extrabet.com )