Australian Open - Andy Murray vs John Isner

By Nishant Joshi

John Isner faces Andy Murray in the opening game of Sunday morning's Australian Open fixtures, and he could well spring a surprise against the wily Scot.

It is apparent that Murray has the raw materials to be the best hard court player on tour - he has beaten all the top players in the world, and on enough occasions to prove that he belongs with the best. However, this raw talent has tellingly not yet been converted into winning a Grand Slam.

At the age of 22, Murray remains relatively young but he is no spring chicken either. He has won four Masters series titles on hard court, so it's bewildering and disappointing for his fans that he hasn't been able to translate this success onto the biggest stage. He has only reached one Grand Slam final (US Open 08) and one semi-final (Wimbledon 09) so far in his career, which remains distinctly underwhelming when compared to the likes of Nadal, Federer et al over the same time period.

One reason that I would put forward for this lack of success is his propensity to over-think opponents of a lesser stature than him. Murray is his best as a counter-attacking player who waits for an opportunity to hit

Every chance of upsetting the odds John Isner

winners down the line, but too often in Grand Slams he has reverted into his shell far too often against lesser players who decide to attack him. Instead of taking his chances, he starts to rely on his opponent making errors - and this is where Murray's problems lie. As a tennis player, 99% of the time you should be looking to play to your own strengths; not to your opponents' weaknesses.

Murray faces John Isner in the 4th round - the 6"9, the lanky American is only second in height to Ivo Karlovic on tour, and he has developed a canny and patient game which could cause Murray some problems. I was sceptical about Isner's game for a long time, but he has improved tremendously and is on the verge of becoming a solid top 20 player in 2010. Like Murray, Isner's game relies a lot on his opponent making errors, and this is where I feel he can frustrate Murray.

The American showcased his tremendous skill against compatriot and heavy favourite Andy Roddick at last year's US Open. Isner took a quick two set lead, before being taken to five sets by A-Rod. Roddick simply couldn't find a way through, and Isner blocked his way to a final set tie-break, which he won, to Roddick's obvious chagrin. It was a match notable for Isner's pure resilience and fitness against a player he had no right to beat - a previous US Open champion, Roddick is arguably a more experienced, more polished clone of the big-serving Isner.

Isner may be accused of being a one-dimensional big-server, but he has the bottle which players such as Ivo Karlovic seem to lack at crucial times, and he also has a solid gameplan which he puts to good use. Put simply, he gets the best out of the game and it would be no surprise to see him challenge for a space in the top 10 over the next two years.

Complacency often seems to creep into Murray's game at Grand Slams, with an uncanny knock of losing to lower-ranked players who play a great game against him. Losses to Tsonga (as 1.2 SP favourite) and Verdasco (1.23) at this tournament in the last two years are backed up by Grand Slam bust-outs to Gonzalez (1.94), Roddick (1.34) and Cilic (1.08!) where Murray has lost in the major tournaments to players he was expected to beat comfortably - and players who he himself must have been expecting to breeze past. Murray has been caught cold on each occasion and this is becoming a worrying trend in his otherwise promising career.

In terms of betting, Murray is unsurprisingly a 1.15 jolly here, but if Isner shows up, he should be able to frustrate the Scot in the sweltering midday heat. The match should be a lot closer than 1.15 suggests, and so I'm looking to oppose Murray here. We can lay Murray to win 3-0 at odds-on, which is a solid bet considering how many tie-breaks Isner plays - 32% of all his sets end in tie-breaks, of which he has won a whopping 73% in the last 12 months; Murray has won 57%.

Also, having thrashed Gael Monfils in the last round, and having picked up his maiden title at the Heineken Open last week, Isner is in excellent rhythm and it's fair to say he's in peak form and confidence at the moment. In an open half of the draw, I wonder if Isner could be another Australian Open underdog? We already have stakes on Cilic and Djokovic who have both advanced to the fourth round, but at a price of 280 and in the form of his life, I've seen worse ways to spend a fiver - however, for the sake of discipline, I shan't increase our exposure on Isner at the moment.

NJ's Bets:

Lay Andy Murray to win 3-0 - 4pts liability @ 1.93 (Betfair)

Back John Isner to beat Andy Murray - 1.5pts @ 7.2 (Betfair)