NJ's Wednesday Premier League Preview

By Nishant Joshi

Arsenal vs Liverpool



10th February 19:45 GMT
Sky Sports 2 (19:00 onwards), Sky Sports HD2 (19:00 onwards)

Wednesday's flagship game should be an intriguing match, with both sides tending towards all-out attack rather than settling for a point here. Arsenal have been heavily criticised for their last two performances, against Manchester United and Chelsea, and justifiably so. They didn't come close to winning either match and what made things worse was that lessons have clearly not been learned.

I never thought I would say this, but Arsene Wenger looks tactically naive, and bereft of ideas. Incredibly, Arsenal were not at all dominated by either team in terms of sheer possession, and indeed they had plenty of the ball - and plenty of chances. But a reluctance to take chances, and the age-old Arsenal problem of taking an extra touch with the goal in sight came to the fore. The statistic which stood out for me is that between them, Chelsea and Man Utd only had 6 shots on target between them - and yet they managed to score five goals in the two matches.

Liverpool are hardly faring much better in terms of league position, but they have had a renaissance in early 2010 which will encourage supporters. Five clean sheets in their last six are part in thanks to new signing Kyrgiakos, who has already turned out to be one of the buys of the season at £2 million. Whether Liverpool have turned the corner enough to justify taking a chance on them here is another question. Something still clearly isn't quite right, and although they're getting back on track, I'd rather look elsewhere than match odds for value tonight. Arsenal will have their backers at 2.1, which might be a marginal value bet, but it certainly doesn't stand out.

Instead, with Arsenal's penchant for scoring goals at home, I'm quite happy to take a punt on Andrei Arshavin to score. The makeshift centre forward has had plenty of chances in recent weeks without finding the back of the net, but he should find it easier to get through Liverpool's defences tonight. Having scored four in one game against them last season, and playing the role of a lone striker at home, it would be rude not to indulge in Coral's 3.0 for the little Russian to score anytime.


West Ham vs Birmingham



10th February 19:45 GMT

It all got a bit uncomfortable yesterday as new West Ham chairman David Gold (or was it David Sullivan? Either way, they're like a non-cool, really annoying two-headed Hydra) announced that there would be further redundancies at the club, as well as the need for the wage bill to be cut by 25%. Manager Gianfranco Zola slammed the news as 'untimely', but then again, when is it ever a good time to hear that instead of buying a new Mercedes, you might just have to settle for an Audi this year. The poor bugger, it sounds like the little master could do with a whip round.

However, the most farcical news out of Upton Park this week was that Kieron Dyer - imagine Aaron Lennon, but 10 years older and 20lbs heavier - will cost the club a whopping £30 million by the time his contract runs out. He has made 5 starts for the club, making him probably the most expensive footballer in history. Scott Parker is reportedly on £65k a week, while poor Matthew Upson has to somehow survive on a paltry £60k a week. God knows how Mido is surviving - he is on £1,000 a week, which to be fair, is not far away from what they deserve to be paid.

Spare a thought for poor Mido, though. While the Upsons and Parkers are rolling into the training ground in their Bentleys and Range Rovers, the temperamental Egyptian is busy self-loathing on the Jubilee line. It must be embarrassing to roll into the club, texting on your non-customised iPhone, only to see your team mates lording it up with their diamond-encrusted versions. 'They' will use Armani aftershaves; Mido will settle for spraying some Lynx around. Such is life.

The east London side face Birmingham, who would be the mid-table side from hell, if they weren't actually a mid-table side. Although the quality at the 2nd tier of the Premiership has improved this season, with Man City, Tottenham and Aston Villa all threatening for 4th and 5th places, Birmingham remain the best of the rest. They did the business again for Priceform readers at the weekend as we backed them to beat Wolves, although at one point I feared that their fine run was coming to an abrupt and unlikely halt. 1-0 down after 80 minutes, super sub Kevin Phillips came on to score two poacher's goals, to our obvious delight. When Phillips scored his first, the whole atmosphere of the stadium changed and it was inevitable that a second would follow. The comeback simply underlined why Birmingham have been in such great form recently, with their resilience second to none in the league.

In terms of home vs away, West Ham are 3-4-4 at Upton Park, and Birmingham are 4-2-5 away from home. West Ham are winless in the league since a Boxing Day defeat of bottom side Portsmouth, which underlines why you wouldn't want to bet on The Hammers with Monopoly money right now.

With this in mind, if I told you that one team was 2.3 for the win, you'd get no prizes for guessing 'Birmingham'. In fact, you'd be utterly wrong - remarkably, West Ham are decent favourites for tonight, which is laughable. A club in turmoil and in the relegation zone, against a team with only one defeat in 18, and that against Chelsea no less. I am often prone to hyperbole, but when it comes to the business end of my previews, I try to keep things in perspective - sometimes we win bets, sometimes we lose.

However, I'll make a frank exception and tell you honestly that win or lose (still, I retain my right to a caveat!), Birmingham are nothing short of stonking value at 3.6 for the away win. This is sure to be a steamer in the morning, so if you're interested, don't wait until the 7:45pm kick-off. I expect West Ham to drift out past the 2.5 mark on the exchanges by match time.


Blackburn vs Hull



10th February 20:00 GMT

At first glance, this match didn't really look that much of an attractive viewing proposition, let alone a betting one. However, although just four points separate the two teams in the table, their respective home and away form demands that we take another look at the odds.

Blackburn's 6-4-2 home record is impressive for any team, whereas Hull are second bottom in terms of away form, with a 0-4-8 record. Crucially, Hull have only scored a paltry 7 goals in their 12 away matches, shipping an incredible 30!

Hull may have won for the first time in ten games against Manchester City, but with such dire away form, it would take a leap of faith to presume that they could pull off a repeat performance against a Blackburn side with solid home form. Sam Allardyce's side have won their last two home matches against Fulham and Wigan, and we should back them to do the same against a worse off side.

If my reading base is as large as I think it is (I have a big family), then I reckon we'll have a few dozen of my closest relatives each go into a betting shop today and ask for "a pound on the team that kid on Priceform tipped. You know, that kid who writes a lot. You know, for Priceform. On the IN-TER-NET."

Good luck to us all, and please feel free to make any comments on my message board. I look forward to hearing from you all!

NJ's Bets:

Andrei Arshavin to score anytime - 2.75pts @ 3.0 (Coral)

Birmingham to beat West Ham - 4.5pts @ 3.6 (VCBet)

Blackburn to beat Hull - 3.25pts @ 1.91 (Totesport)

Nishant Joshi