The Rome Masters

By Nishant Joshi

Ernests Gulbis vs Filippo Volandri



29th April 13:30 GMT

I feel compelled to preface this article by saying I might fall flat on my arse on this one.

Readers will know that I tend to be aggressive with my staking when I see value, and on Thursday we will see such an opportunity. Ernests Gulbis is a tremendously hyped-up young man making his way back after a dreadful 2009 in which he couldn't buy a victory. Likewise, Filippo Volandri is making a comeback after a failed drugs test which saw him drop out of the world's top 100. In the previous round, Gulbis knocked out Roger Federer in the third, and so the market is understandably keen to get on his side here. Volandri battled past Peter Luczak in the first round and demolished Julien Benneteau in the second round, although the Frenchman did suffer a forearm injury in the second set.

Moreover, Volandri is looking in fantastic nick on his favoured clay, and he has professed his love for playing in this tournament, where as an Italian, he is given voracious support. Gulbis is an erratic player at the best of times and is currently priced at 1.38 on Betfair to beat Volandri. I was pretty shocked to see this price as on paper, Volandri is a nightmare match-up for Gulbis. A player who is fairly steady and consistent and aiming to hack it deep, against a player like Gulbis who will always have a high unforced errors count in his attempt to hit every ball for a winner.

I think the market is a country mile off here, and Volandri could well be a dark horse in this tournament as the market underrates him.

Hope I'm not barking up the wrong tree here!

NJ's Bet:

Lay Ernests Gulbis - 5pts liability @ 1.37 (Betfair)

Nishant Joshi