Spin It To Win It - A World T20 Addendum

By Nishant Joshi

Further to my previous article on Tuesday, we have now seen a few warm-up games involving all sides. No doubt a pinch of salt should be taken with the results, but there are undeniable trends. West Indies choking against New Zealand from 68/0 to 114 all out is a highlight, and one which should worry their outright backers. Moreover, the scores in the warm-up games have been stupidly low, with scores south of 140 being the norm. Zimbabwe have beaten both Australian and Pakistan with a slow-medium line-up which are easily under-rated and hard to get away on sticky wickets.

During the IPL, it's worth noting that 5 out of 8 of the top tournament bowlers were spinners, and I expect this trend to continue into the World T20. If we cast our mind back to Allen Stanford's T20 tournament in the Caribbean two or so years back, we should remember how spin was a huge factor. Suliemann Benn, Nikita Miller and other hodge-podge make-shift spinners did very well indeed, especially while opening the bowling.

At this point, I should reiterate my previous thoughts that Australia are a huge false favourite to win this tournament. They only have one frontline spinner in Nathan Hauritz, and a seam attack with no variety whatsoever. Steve Smith is a back-up leg-spinner but his bowling is as bland as his name, and I suspect that Australia will stubbornly stick with their pacers. I would have liked to have an outright lay on them at the 4.5 which was available last night, but since they have drifted out to 5.1 we can perhaps consider laying them on a game-by-game basis. Either way, there is no way they should be close to favourites here, and I would go so far as to say that they are even behind New Zealand and West Indies in my book. A lack of a T20 hero in their middle order, together with a rookie captain and a joke bowling line-up (no Bollinger must be the worst selection decision of the year), I strongly advise you all to lay Australia at low odds, in-play.

Now, we'll take a look at the top bowler markets once again. Spin has really been the key during the warm-up games, and after seeing the IPL stat for spinners, I feel it only makes sense to be backing spinners to be their sides' top bowler.

NJ's Bets:

Michael Yardy (ENG) - 4pts @ 13.0 @ Coral is an insane price. 6 wickets in two warm-up matches cements his place in the line-up. Should be vying for favourite in a just world; a double figure price is beyond what we could have ever hoped for.

Shakib Al-Hasan (BAN) - 3.25pts @ 5.5 Coral for the side's frontline spinner, a proven performer who will love these pitches.

Harbhajan Singh (IND) - 3.75pts @ 5.5 Sportingbet India's only frontline spinner.

Suliemann Benn (WI) - 4.5pts @ 5.0 Ladbrokes Likely to open the bowling for West Indies.

Nishant Joshi