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Article: Wimbledon Preview
Wimbledon Ladies' Singles - Living on past glories.
Maria Sharapova is a short-priced favourite @ 4.0, and on current form, we simply can't be having that. At face value, the belle of SW19 would seem to be in good form, with three singles titles under her belt so far this year, including the Australian Open in January. However, since her triumph down under, she has looked susceptible and we have seen precious little of her famous ruthless streak which stood her apart from her contemporaries for so long.
She has previously described herself as "a cow on ice" on clay, but that does not excuse some of her serving during the French Open, which is surely a concern for any outright backers. Her double fault count was ridiculous at times, and resulted in unconvincing wins against Evgeniya Rodina, Bethanie Mattek and Karin Knapp. In fact, Sharapova was two points from being knocked out of the whole competition in her first round match, underlining just how precariously poised she often was against players she should have usually won comfortably in straight sets.
Her conqueror in the fourth round of the French Open was compatriot Dinara Safina , and she has surely got to be a serious contender for the title, even if the odds don't suggest it.
After threatening to break into the top echelon of women's tennis for the past few years, Safina has burst into life in recent times, most notably at the French Open, where she came back from the dead to beat Sharapova and Elena Dementieva in consecutive matches. In the world of tennis betting, there's nothing more I love than a 1.01 gubbing on the exchanges, and when such a rarity occurs (ie a 99/1 shot is landed), it should be admired in all its glory. The fact that Safina managed to land two in-play 99/1 shots in consecutive matches against high quality opposition should not be under-estimated. In the WTA tour, it is often roulette to bank on any player showing the remotest signs of mental fragility or injury affecting their play, and so with question marks over the Williams sisters and Sharapova, Safina stands out as a good value bet. There were questions about her fiery temperament and ability to self-destruct, but she is high on confidence at the moment, having reached three finals in her last three tournaments. She definitely has the form and should be considered as a serious contender for the title.It would be folly to rule out the likes of the Williams sisters and Sharapova due to the fact that they are proven champions at this level, but we are prepared to look elsewhere.
Our second candidate will be another lady who is in top form coming into the grass court season. I make no bones about the fact that I am no great fan of Ana Ivanovic and her fist-pumping antics on court, which often seem aimed with the sole purpose of riling her opponents. However, on the back of winning the French Open, she is high on confidence and top seed for Wimbledon. Having reached the semi-finals last year, Ivanovic certainly has proven pedigree on grass. On the back of a Grand Slam win, she should look to progress far in this competition once again. However, instead of backing her at the rather skinny outright odds of 5.0, we will back her to win the first quarter of the draw @ 1.4. Considering that her only competition comes from players in no great form, she should breeze her quarter. With competition from the likes of Dominika Cibulkova, Patty Schnyder and Anna Chakvetadze in particular, Ivanovic should see past them comfortably enough and we are quite happy to take this price with a degree of confidence. Depending on the performance of the Williams sisters and Sharapova, we may look to back Ivanovic outright at a later stage.
Wimbledon Mens' Singles - Open/Shut case?
To the men, and there is a case for it being a reasonably open draw, full of contenders who have potential to cause serious upsets. However, the overwhelming feeling is that one of the 'Big Three' will win the title. Noval Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer are hot favourites to reach the semi-finals, and it's hard to disagree. Djokovic proved his class by winning the Australian Open this year, and Nadal confirmed his dominance on clay at the French Open, including a notable demolition of Roger Federer in the final. Despite an indifferent start to the season, 'R-Fed' is still the player to beat on grass. His style of play is perfectly suited to this surface, and he is now unbeaten in fifty nine games on grass after having retained his title in Halle. To defeat Federer at Wimbledon would take a phenomenal effort, and I feel that Nadal is the only player capable of challenging him, but I still feel that Federer would prevail over five sets. The last man to defeat Roger Federer at Wimbledon was Mario Ancic, and the likes of Ancic, Andy Roddick, Andy Murray have credentials to take sets off the "Big Three", but in reality, I can't see past Federer outright and is worth a small back to retain his title for the sixth consecutive year.
Elsewhere, Andy Roddick will look to a possible semi-final encounter with Rafael Nadal if all goes to plan. Having reached the semi-finals at Wimbledon twice before, A-Rod is not only adept on grass but he is in excellent form this year. He won titles in highly competitive fields in both Dubai and San Jose in the space of a few weeks earlier this year, defeating each of the "Big Three" along the way. He since suffered a shoulder injury, ruling him out of the French Open, but looked fully fit last week at Queen's Club, and so he should be backed with confidence to despatch most opposition here. Roddick also has arguably kindest quarter of the draw, virtue of the grass-loathing Nikolay Davydenko being seeded fourth. Back Roddick to win the third quarter with confidence.
NJ's Wimbledon Bets:
Back Dinara Safina to win outright - 2pts @ 35.0 (Betfair)
Back Ana Ivanovic to win first quarter - 3.5pts @ 1.4 (Generally Available)
Back Roger Federer to win outright - 1pt @ 2.2 (PaddyPower)
Back Andy Roddick to win 3rd quarter - 4pts @ 1.57 (Sky Bet)
Author: Nishant Joshi, Published 23 Jun 08


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