French Open Women's Final - Stosur vs Schiavone

By Nishant Joshi

One of the more random WTA finals in recent history will come to pass on Saturday afternoon, with Aussie Samantha Stosur taking on Italian Francesca Schiavone.

I have been a huge fan of Stosur for a few years now. As Jelena Jankovic commented after her semi-final defeat (bah for us!), "Stosur plays like a man."

Coming from a lady with masculine attributes to rival hookers in Bangkok, I guffawed.

However, JJ's point is valid - Stosur's serve is the fastest on tour, and she has huge power in her shots. She loves to serve/volley and quite frankly it's been a sad indictment of her previous mental fragility. She looks to have overcome such problems with wins against Henin and Serena Williams, followed by a crushing of Jankovic. However, the pressure of a maiden Grand Slam final as heavy favourite could weigh on her mind.

Schiavone has had the easiest ride to a Grand Slam final that I can remember. After beating a couple of unseeded players she came past Na Li, Kirilenko, and two players struggling with injury - Wozniacki and Dementieva (retired). However, she's a very capable player and loves playing on clay.

With Stosur's 4-1 H2H record, she is a worthy favourite here, but I think that it is quite remarkable to see her trading as low as 1.23 on the exchanges! Everything points towards Stosur, but I see her as very short and can't help myself in backing the Italian in some form.

The statistic which interests me most is that we have to go back 19 Grand Slam finals for a match NOT to be won in straight sets. The current stretch at Roland Garros goes back to 2002. It is an incredibly peculiar stat and one which would indicate that the final all comes down to who handles pressure the better. We have seen seasoned pro's crumble under the pressure of their maiden Grand Slam final, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the same here again. Backing Schiavone to win 2-0 @ 10.5 is an unlikely outcome but if she does win, it's the most likely scoreline.

Also, it should be noted that 6 of the last 7 WTA finals at Roland Garros have finished under 19.5 games. Backing this outcome at 1.9 hedges our previous bet on Schiavone in case Stosur really destroys her.

***DID YOU KNOW? - This is the first time in Grand Slam history that a first round match one year has been the final the next year.***

NJ's Bets:

Back Schiavone to win 2-0 - 1.75pts @ 10.5 (Betfair)

Back under 19.5 games - 3.6pts @ 2.0 (Betfred)

Nishant Joshi