NJ's Wimbledon Mens' Semi-Finals

By Nishant Joshi

Tomas Berdych will take on Novak Djokovic after taking care of Roger Federer in the last round - if only we'd gone with our instincts and backed the Czech! Djokovic has had a relatively easy path to the semi-finals, with Rochus and Hewitt providing relatively tough matches for him. Meanwhile, Berdych has faced a few tough matches, notably against Istomin. He has spent plenty of time on court and I reckon that Djokovic will come into the match a lot fresher. Both are similar players in terms of style, with both players preferring to work from the baseline with huge groundstrokes.

Although Berdych will no doubt hit plenty of winners here, Federer's main error was trying to beat Berdych at his own game and match him stroke-for-stroke, assuming that whatever happened, he would still be the better player and win the match. Sadly, this brain-freeze led to his demise. What was curiously absent was the use of the slice backhand by Federer, which I mentioned in my preview would be crucial. In the end, I counted just five Federer slice backhands in the entire four sets, which all led to unforced errors from Berdych. If Djokovic uses this shot well, he will have a facile win.

The key stat here is Djokovic's record against similar players - 5-1 against Soderling, 3-0 against Cilic, 3-0 against Del Potro and 2-0 against Berdych himself! All of them are power-hitters from the baseline with a huge serve, and none of the relish coming into the net.

Djokovic has the experience here and is a maximum bet for us at 1.94.

Andy Murray takes on Rafael Nadal in the second match on centre court, and it is an incredibly tough match to call. I am looking for reasons not to back Murray here - in my opinion he's superior to Nadal in every department on hard courts and grass, and his recent results to Nadal are 3:1 on hard courts, with the sole loss coming in heavy wind in Indian Wells, conditions suiting Nadal perfectly. Having said that, for two of his defeats, Nadal was suffering varying degrees of injuries...so it's a bit tough to read into the recent head to head.

Nadal certainly has the experience and mental edge, but he has spent a lot of time on court during this tournament, while Murray has only dropped one set so far. Murray's price of 2.50 seems too good to be true in my opinion. I feel we'll get a better price if we take Murray in-running, but for pre-match purposes I recommend a tentative value bet on the Scot.

NJ's Bets:

Djokovic to beat Berdych - 5pts @ 1.94 (Betfair)

Murray to beat Nadal - 1pt @ 2.50  (Betfair)

By Nishant Joshi