Wimbledon Week One - Favourites dropping like flies!

The first week of Wimbledon has lived up to expectations and there have been some fantastic matches interspersed with the odd shock result. It is all building up nicely and all bodes well for an exciting second week.

Women, eh?

The shock sof the tournament so far have been in the ladies' draw, where the strongly fancied third seed Maria Sharapova was dumped out in the second round by Alla Kudryavtseva, the world no 154, and Ana Ivanovic being dumped out in straight sets by Jie Zheng. In fact, it may have been a shock to some, but as previously picked up in this column, we always thought that Sharapova was a false favourite and this result will hopefully ease the path for our Dinara Safina, our outright pick. Ivanovic's performance was more surprising and we have dropped a few points as a result.

Safina has won both her matches in straight sets, and I was particularly impressed by her second round performance against Su-Wei Hseih. On the face of it, it may not seem like a noteworthy match, but Hseih went out in a positive frame of mind and the Safina of a year ago may have dropped a set and struggled throughout the match. However, it is a testament to her newly-found self-belief and confidence that she dispatched her opponent in clinical fashion.

Instead of topping up on Safina in the outright market, I feel it would be more profitable to back her to win the third quarter of the draw @ 3.25. Now that Sharapova is out of the picture, this means that Safina has an even better chance of reaching the semi-finals. She faces Shahar Peer in the third round, before probably facing fellow Russian Elena Dementieva in the fourth round, and Victoria Azarenka in the quarter finals. Given that she has recently faced both Dementieva and Azarenka in recent months, winning against both players, I feel that 3.25 is a value bet for Safina to continue her good form.

Elsewhere, the unexpected departures of Sharapova and Ivanovic have had a huge impact on the outright market. The Williams sisters are currently short-priced joint favourites, and another Venus/Serena final is a strong possibility.

It is also worth keeping an eye on some of the lively outsiders in the ladies' draw. Tamarine Tanasugarn is an experienced player who seems to be relishing the grass court season, having picked up only her second ever WTA Tier 1 title at Nottingham a couple of weeks ago. She is playing some of the most solid tennis in the competition and knocked out the seeded Vera Zvonareva in her second round match. Nicole Vaidisova and Anna Chakvetadze have both been promising a lot on the WTA tour, and their half of the draw has opened up in dramatic fashion after the early exit of Ivanovic.

The mercurial Chakvetadze looks especially tempting at an outright price at upwards of 50.0 but we'd prefer to wait and see how her fourth round match against Vaidisova pans out. Given the number of shocks so far, we can't rule out Bethanie Mattek causing some more upsets on her Wimbledon journey. Mattek has been more well-known for her revealing, self-designed on-court outfits than her tennis, but she put in one of the most solid WTA performances of the year against Marion Bartoli, and was unflustered by her opponent's alleged time-wasting antics. At times it seemed impossible for Bartoli to win a single point; Mattek was lightning quick around the court and returned everything with interest. The adventurous bettors may fancy a punt on Mattek outright at upwards of 400's on Betfair, but we feel it's best to keep in mind that this is the first time that Mattek has reached so far in a Grand Slam. If Mattek continues her excellent form, she should certainly cause fellow American Serena Williams plenty of problems in their fourth round meeting. Betting against a 2-0 Serena whitewash would seem to be the value pick.

FedEx on course to deliver

To the men's draw, and there have been unexpected early exits for third seed Novak Djokovic and sixth seed Andy Roddick. Djokovic's conqueror was the enigmatic and eminently popular Russian, Marat Safin. Safin has a tough path to the semi-finals, but after watching his epic victory in the fading light against Andreas Seppi, we can see him continuing his fairytale renaissance. However, Safin is in the wrong half of the draw if he's thinking about winning the title - regardless of how well he performs, Roger Federer will surely prove to be the final stumbling block. Federer is yet to drop a set in three matches so far, and has looked totally comfortable on Centre Court.

In the fourth quarter, I am highly optimistic about Richard Gasquet's chances of progressing further. Long touted as the 'Baby Federer', Gasquet has had his fair share of problems in recent months. He looked a lost soul after suffering first round defeats in embarrassing fashion in Rome and Hamburg, and conceded that he needed a brief break from the game. He pulled out of the French Open with a left knee injury, although it is widely felt that his poor form was the primary factor for withdrawal. The Frenchman has played some excellent tennis so far, and seems back to somewhere near his best. His backhand looks in fantastic order, and having reached the semi-finals at SW19 just last year, Gasquet has what it takes to go deep into the tournament.

Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal will be the main threats to Gasquet's chances of further progress, but he should be confident in his chances. Murray will no doubt be a tough opponent to beat in front of his home crowd, but I feel that Nadal would certainly be vulnerable if Gasquet plays to his potential.

NJ's Picks:

Richard Gasquet to reach Wimbledon Final - 2.5pts @ 13.0 (extrabet )

Dinara Safina to win third quarter - 2pts @ 3.25 (VC Bet)

Saturday double: Tanasurgan to beat Erakovic & Gasquet to beat Simon - 2pts @ 2.1 (Ladbrokes)

Sunday WTA: Lay Serena Williams 2-0 vs Bethanie Mattek for 1pt liability @ 1.5 (Betfair)