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Article: England v South Africa Test Series
England remains a fairly efficient team in the test arena, despite blundering their way through recent series away to New Zealand and Sri Lanka. However, South Africa will prove to be formidable opponents, fronted by a world-class pace attack.
Led by the world's no.2 bowler Dale Steyn, the South African bowling line-up is certainly to be respected. The lion-hearted Makhaya Ntini and fearsome Morne Morkel should combine to present a wicket-taking threat at every opportunity. Andre Nel will probably be on the bench to start off with but provides excellent strength in depth should he be needed. Paul Harris will be their lone spin option, and although he will be more of a holding spinner, the left-arm tweaker should not be under-estimated.
This should provide stark contrast to England's current batting line-up, which is fairly shambolic at the moment. During the ODI series against New Zealand, Ian Bell and Paul Collingwood - supposed stalwarts of the line-up - mustered a combined seventy seven runs from eight innings. Considering how tough they found New Zealand's pace attack, they will no doubt find it considerably harder against the confident and in-form South Africans.
This brings us to our first bet - Dale Steyn to be South Africa's leading wicket-taker in the series. Ntini's potency has decreased markedly since he last toured England, and at times his downfall has been painful to watch, simply because he is such an honest bowler who always tries his hardest. With Steyn having taken seventy eight test wickets in the last year, the English conditions should suit him well and we expect him to take a bagful. Steyn is unlike any other bowler in world cricket at the moment - he regularly clocks over 90mph, manages extravagant swing, and now exhibits good control as well. He has the potential to become an all-time great. Morne Morkel poses the biggest threat to the success of this bet, but it nevertheless represents stand-out value for the best pace bowler in the world right now.
England's recent test results stack up well with those of South Africa, but four test wins out of six against New Zealand shouldn't gloss over the fact that the victories weren't particularly convincing, and the wins more thanks to the inexperience of their opponents than their own collective excellence. Meanwhile, South Africa have won home series against both New Zealand and West Indies, while they also won in Pakistan and managed a commendable draw in their latest series, away to India. Throughout this time, they have experienced juicy green tops at home, lifeless pitches in some of the ‘bowlers' graveyard' pitches in Pakistan, and a bona-fide dust bowl in Kanpur. This experience of different pitches will stand them in excellent stead for this series.
England are a lost team at the moment, drifting from one match to another with no clear structure - it is quite obvious that side attractions such as the Stanford Twenty20 for 20 are distracting the players and disrupting team harmony. However, with talismanic all-rounder Andrew Flintoff back in the side for the second test onwards, England are likely to be much more threatening. Flintoff seems to be nearing full fitness, and his impressive all-round showing in Lancashire's Twenty20 quarter-final bodes well, although it's unlikely that he'll be bowling as many overs as he would have done a couple of years ago. His most significant contributions for England are often intangible, as he fills the team with confidence and self-belief.
If South Africa maintain their ruthless streak, England will seriously struggle to break them down. Quite comfortably, the Antipodeans are better than England in every department. On this basis, we feel that South Africa are the more likely victors at the end of the series. However, by the same token, we're weary of the Flintoff factor and so we'll take cover on the drawn series.
Tim Ambrose is the incumbent wicket-keeper for England, and looked to be absolutely hapless in the ODI series against New Zealand. He managed to drop a regulation ‘skyer' in embarrassing fashion in the final match, which topped off a shocking series with the bat - ten runs in five innings, at an average of 2.5 is a nightmare by even the most inept tail-ender's standards. Mark Boucher has not set the world on fire in recent times but remains as consistent as ever. His overall test average of 30.1 is identical to his test average against England, and so we think that the 1.83 offered by Skybet for Boucher to score more runs in the series than his counterpart is decent value. For this bet, we are banking on Ambrose to continue his poor run of form against the best pace attack he will have faced in his short career.
We also like the look of Andrew Strauss to score more than 300 runs in the series. After a prolonged lean spell, Strauss came back strongly towards the end of the tour of New Zealand. He was staring down the barrel with his place in the team once again under grave threat, after managing a duck in the third test at Napier. However, he showed excellent resolve to reply with a match-winning 177 in the second innings, under no little pressure. He followed this up with 266 runs @ 66.5 in the home series, and will relish the prospect of facing his country of birth. During the 2004-05 tour of South Africa , Strauss confirmed his class as a test batsman by scoring a record 656 runs in the five-test series, and we're backing him to continue his good form here.
Finally, Hashim Amla has promised big things for a long time, and he is finally beginning to fulfil his potential. He has averaged 55.1 in his last four test series and has cemented his place in the team with some big centuries. Similar to Strauss, we think that Amla is being over-looked in favour of his more renowned team-mates Jacques Kallis and Graeme Smith, and we can take advantage of a runs bet as he slips under the radar.
NJ's Bets:
Dale Steyn to be South Africa's leading wicket-taker in the series - 5pts @ 2.25 (Skybet )
Back South Africa (draw no bet) to win the series - 5pts @ 1.57 (Betfair)
Back Mark Boucher to score more runs than Tim Ambrose in the series - 4pts @ 1.67 (Totesport)
Back Andrew Strauss to score over 300.5 runs in the series - 4pts @ 1.83 (Skybet)
Back Hashim Amla to score over 315.5 runs in the series - 2pts @ 1.83 (Skybet)
Author: Nishant Joshi, Published 09 Jul 08


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