Twenty20 Cup Finals Day

The Twenty20 Cup will culminate in what should be another cracking finals day, to be held at the Hampshire's Rose Bowl on Saturday.

There will be three matches on the day - two semi-finals followed by the final to be played under lights in the evening.

1st Semi-Final: Essex Eagles vs. Kent Spitfires

Essex are clearly a team to keep an eye on, and the spotlight will firmly be on Graham Napier, after the all-rounder smashed records with 152* earlier in the competition, and we fancy him to continue his good form on the big stage. He is 11.0 with Betdirect to finish top scorer at the end of the day, and we think this is cracking value with their each-way terms. One big innings should be enough to seal a place, and Napier should be in contention with his big-hitting prowess this season.

As a team, Essex seem a bit top heavy at first glance, relying on bit-part players to get them through. However, this has served them well enough during the group stages, and they should not be under-estimated with the likes of Danish Kaneria in their line-up. However, their pace bowling remains a concern, and we can see the likes of Napier and Ryan ten Doeschate going the distance if they come under pressure on what is bound to be a flat pitch.

Kent seem a well-balanced unit, and go into finals day as defending champions of the Twenty20 Cup. Their power-hitters are world-renowned, with Azhar Mahmood and Justin Kemp both having the capability to clear the ropes at will. However, although Kent seem a cracking unit on paper, they do have some notable shortcomings. Although Martin van Jaarsveld is the top scorer in the Friends Provident Trophy, he has failed to find form in the Twenty20 Cup, with just 124 runs @ 12.4. Kemp has fared little better, with just eight sixes in this format all season.

Joe Denly has been Kent's saviour in this form of the game, and with five fifties in just eleven innings, the England selectors will be watching him with an eager eye on finals day. Kent's fast bowlers are also worryingly expensive, with the likes of Simon Cook and Yasir Arafat averaging over eight an over this year.

Bearing the weaknesses of each side, it is tough to have a straight bet on this match with any confidence. Kent are touted as favourites for the game, and although on paper they are comfortably the better side, Graham Napier stands between them and a place in the finals. From a trading point of view, look to back Essex when Napier comes in, as the game is firmly dependent on him.

2nd Semi-Final: Durham Dynamos vs. Middlesex Crusaders

Durham are widely fancied to win the Twenty20 Cup this year, and on paper it's hard to disagree. Captained by Dale Benkenstein, Durham have quality and depth in their side, with the likes of Steve Harmison, Liam Plunkett and Shaun Pollock in the bowling line-up. Their top order is also excellent on paper, with Australian Michael di Venuto opening the batting with local boy Phil Mustard, and the likes of Shivnarine Chanderpaul and Paul Collingwood. Young gun Will Smith should also not be forgotten, having picked up 228 runs at 24.88 so far.

However, it should be noted that Durham have only managed three fifties in ten matches so far, which indicates that batsmen have not been valuing their wickets dearly enough, possibly brought about due to complacency because they bat so deep. However, they cannot afford this attitude against unfancied Middlesex, who have been the dark horses of this tournament with nine wins out of eleven.

Their bowling has been their strength, with the experienced Shaun Udal and Murali Kartik choking the flow of runs during the middle order, typically built on the opening salvos of South African pacers Dirk Nannes and Tyron Henderson. Henderson is the world's leading wicket-taker in Twenty20 cricket and has backed it up with 19 wickets @ 13.68 this season. But it is Nannes who has been the revelation, with 13 wickets @ 13.23, and has taken opposition batsmen by surprise with his pace and swing up front. Middlesex have fantastic variety in their bowling, and if they reach the final, the pitch should have worn out a bit after two semi-finals, and the spinners will be key.

Middlesex's batting is solid if unspectacular, with the likes of Owais Shah and Ed Joyce providing experience to the likes of youngsters Billy Godleman and the Dawid Malan. There is good balance to the batting with Tyron Henderson as the power hitter, as a strike rate of 175 this season would testify. If Middlesex beat Durham, I feel that their game plan would fair well against Kent/Essex in the final, and so Middlesex are a great value back to win outright.

We are also interested in the number of wides in the match, as several bookies have set the bar too high, and we are happy to take them on once again with the bet which has served us well on previous occasions. In 18 matches involving the two sides this season, only four matches have exceeded six wides, which makes 2.5 for six wides or under a stonking value bet.

Finally, I am not that great a fan of backing shorts odds, but when there is value to be had, we should not shy away from it. That is why we're slightly baffled by the compilers at sporting bet, who have chalked up 1.25 for ‘Both teams to score more than 100'. It takes an awful lot of bad luck and poor batting for a team to be dismissed for less than 100 in Twenty20, and this bet would have only lost once during the whole season so far. We are quite happy to take maximum bets on this, for both semi-finals.

NJ's Twenty20 Cup Finals Day Bets:

Graham Napier top run-scorer on finals day - 1pt @ 11.0, E/W 1, 2, 3, 1/4 (BetDirect)

Durham / Middlesex six wides or under - 5pts @ 2.5 (Sportingbet)

Durham / Middlesex both teams to score more than 100 - 5pts @ 1.25 Sportingbet)

Essex / Kent both teams to score more than 100 - 5pts @ 1.25 (Sportingbet)

Middlesex to lift the cup - 2.5pts @ 5.0 (Boylesports)

Coverage starts from 11am BST on Sky Sports 1 on Saturday, but the weather is set fair and at the time of writing, there are still tickets available from here - it is certainly worth a trip down south for those who can make it.