England vs. South Africa - Third Test @ Edgbaston, 30th July 2008

Firstly, at the half-way stage of this series, let’s re-cap our series bets.

1. Dale Steyn to be leading South African wicket-taker - Steyn (8 wickets so far) is out injured for the third test, meaning that unless Morne Morkel (11 wickets so far) has a nightmare at Edgbaston or gets injured - and we’re certainly not in the business of wishing injuries on players! - then it looks like this bet is dead in the water.

2. South Africa (draw no bet) to win the series - South Africa are 1-0 up in the series with two tests to go, and so we should be confident of least getting our stake back here, at the time of writing this bet is trading as short as 1.04 with the bookies and it would take a tremendous turnaround for England to win the next two tests in a row.

3. Mark Boucher to score more runs than Tim Ambrose in the series - Boucher (38 runs) has only had two innings so far compared to three innings for Ambrose (52 runs). Both keepers have had quiet series so far, and hopefully Boucher will get some more time at the crease in the second half of the series.

4. Andrew Strauss to score over 300.5 runs in the series - with just 71 runs in three innings so far, realistically we need Strauss to deliver at least one century and a fifty to keep this bet alive.

5. Hashim Amla to score over 315.5 runs in the series - with an impressive unbeaten century at Lord’s, Amla has 148 runs under his belt so far this series, despite looking in cracking form at times. If he continues his good form then we expect him to be there or thereabouts.

Overall, the series bets are indifferent at best at this time, but we’ll remain optimistic with two tests to go. This brings us to the next test at Edgbaston, starting on Wednesday.

England have an overall record of 22-13-7 at Edgbaston, and are looking to come back from 1:0 down in the series. Steve Harmison and Paul Collingwood were recalled to the England squad at the expense of Stuart Broad and Darren Pattinson, but Harmison has since been released from the squad and England are going into the test with just four bowlers. This is a fairly big risk to take, considering that there are always fitness doubts over Andrew Flintoff, and Ryan Sidebottom is returning from injury.

For South Africa, Dale Steyn is out with a broken thumb and will be a massive loss, as now the South African attack now looks bereft of raw pace and hostility, although Andre Nel will no doubt always give 100% with his bizarre form of aggression and hostility. Worryingly, captain and opening batsman Graeme Smith is a doubt with a back injury, and will face a late fitness test. Fresh from a century in the last tour match, JP Duminy stands by for his test bow.

The forecast is not particularly good and England’s relatively defensive selection would indicate that there is an endemic lack of confidence within the ranks at the moment. Despite England’s good recent record at Edgbaston, we’re not happy to back them with any confidence. Although some punters may feel that England are the value option, we’re more interested in the draw lay. There looks to have been an over-reaction to weather forecasts in recent times, and the pitch has been geared for a result.

There have also been hints from head groundsman Steve Rouse that the pitch will deteriorate as the game goes on, which makes Monty Panesar a very tempting option as man of the match, particularly as he is well into double figures.

In an interview with BBC Radio 5 Live, Rouse said: "I don't think whacking it in half way down here will do you any good. It's always been a 'kiss the turf and get it to swing' wicket.”

This would indicate that Sidebottom and James Anderson would be interesting picks, but considering Sidebottom is returning from injury and Anderson has six wickets @ 41.66 this series, we’re keen to take Monty as the value option here.

NJ’s Bets:

Lay The Draw - 3.5pts liability @ 2.26 (Betfair)

Monty Panesar Man of the Match - 1pt @ 17.0 (Bluesq)