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England vs. South Africa - 4th Test @ The Oval

Battle of the Egos

The old Wild West cliché goes “this town ain't big enough for the both of us”, and this probably best sums up the rivalry between Graeme Smith and Kevin Pietersen.

Both players are jostling for the title of the biggest ego in world cricket, and the scene is set for what is bound to be a charged dead rubber. Pietersen's ego will no doubt have been boosted hugely by his bold appointment as captain while his counterpart will surely want to nail down a psychological advantage over a player who defected from South Africa to England as a youngster, disillusioned with the quota system.

The two captains are definitely the best of enemies, with both players giving each other a fair bit of lip - both on and off the field. Their rivalry has often threatened to boil over, but Smith now seems experienced and calculated enough to manipulate the situation to his advantage, whereas with Pietersen there always seems to be a lingering doubt as to whether he will keep his head or not - exemplified by his rush of blood to the head when well-set on 94 in the third test at Edgbaston.

Pietersen's ego got the better of him on that occasion, and I am sure that Smith will enjoy toying with Pietersen. The already fractious relationship between the two captains is sure to be under the microscope during this final test as well as the subsequent ODI series, and I suspect that this may well become a perfect case study for budding psychologists around the world!

With scores of 14, 158, 0, 96, 41, 101 at The Oval, Pietersen has two hundreds in three matches at this ground, and we feel that the captaincy will give him the perfect added motivation to perform against the country of his birth. As England's top-scorer in the series so far with one century at Lord's (and 94 at Edgbaston), we are more than happy to back England's in-form batsman to continue his good record at The Oval. Odds of 3.0 for Pietersen to score a century in either innings has fantastic appeal and is certainly a good value bet.

Some punters may look to the man of the match market for a punt on KP at 8.0, but we're happy to keep our powder dry, considering that Graeme Smith and Jacques Kallis both looked in great touch in the last test.

For the match odds market, we're struggling to find a value bet for the moment. England have failed to take twenty wickets so far in the series, whereas South Africa have won the last two tests in a row and are clearly the form team. The ground's history is certainly draw-friendly, and although generally speaking I am a staunch advocate of the pre-match draw lay when it is trading so short, it's hard to argue with the odds on offer. I will see how the match pans out for the first couple of days and then post an in-play update if there are any worthwhile opportunities. For trading purposes, I would certainly recommend against going heavy red on the draw for the first couple of days.

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NJ's Bets:

Back Kevin Pietersen to score a century in the match - 2.5pts @ 3.0 (Betdirect, StanJames)