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2008/09 European League Preview (part one)

As another season dawns, we take an in-depth look at the likely movers and shakers this season, as we attempt to build another strong portfolio of season-long ante post bets.

Over the next few days, I'll bring you my tips for the forthcoming season.

Premier League top goal-scorer

Looking at the raw stats, only four players outside the Big 4 would have qualified for an each-way place (1, 2, 3, 4,) over the past three seasons, and once again the betting is dominated by the likes of Fernando Torres and Cristiano Ronaldo. However, we are going to start off by avoiding Torres as well as Emmanuel Adebayor, who scored 24 goals each last season in the league. They are both worthy candidates but we have good reason to feel they are plenty short enough at the moment.

Both players now have strike partners capable of equalling their tallies in the league, thus diminishing their own totals. Robbie Keane has moved to Liverpool, and being such a similar player to Torres, the goals are likely be shared fairly equally between the two. Likewise, Robin van Persie and Eduardo da Silva are to return from injury for Arsenal this season, and I can't see Adebayor being as prolific as he was last season.

With the uncertainty surrounding Ronaldo's future at Manchester United, he has been a drifter in this market and is now a best priced 8.0 with some of the bookies. However, having topped the charts with 31 goals in the PL last season, and with 17 goals the season before, Ronaldo is arguably the best player in the world and we are keen to keep him onside in this market. The odds reflect the chances of him leaving before the transfer window closes at the end of August, or possibly in the January transfer window.

However, if Ronaldo lasts the season at the Red Devils then there is little chance that he will finish outside of the places, and we feel that the bookies are taking a massive risk by dangling such tempting odds here. We're prepared to take a big gamble here, because without the transfer rumours he would be no more than 3.0 going on previous seasons and current form.

Elsewhere, we fancy three lively outsiders to vie for a place in this market. Roque Santa Cruz scored 19 goals in the PL last season, finishing fourth on the top-scorers list, and is surely too big at 34.0 to have another good season.

Dean Ashton has struggled with injuries since joining West Ham, but showed signs of improvement with a reasonably full season last term, scoring 10 goals in 31 PL games. At 67.0, he is an unlikely candidate but certainly has the potential to finish in the places.

Andy Johnson is arguably the least likely of our trio to finish in the places, but we are quite happy to take a punt on him at 81.0. Having only scored 17 goals in 61 games since moving to Everton, the Merseysiders are arguably lucky to be getting anywhere near the £8.6 million that they originally paid for him when he moved from Crystal Palace. However, we have good reason to believe that he will prosper at Fulham this season. He certainly has the pedigree for the top flight, having scored 21 goals for Crystal Palace in the 2004/05 season. The evidence suggests that Johnson enjoys being top dog, and Fulham are likely to be the perfect team for him to flourish.


NJ's Premier League Top-Scorer Bets:

Cristiano Ronaldo - 5pts @ 8.0 (E/W 1, 2, 3, 4, ¼) (Ladbrokes, Bet365)

Roque Santa Cruz - 1pt @ 34.0 (E/W 1, 2, 3, 4, ¼) (PaddyPower, Skybet, Ladbrokes, William Hill )

Dean Ashton - 0.5pts @ 67.0 (E/W 1, 2, 3, 4, ¼) (VC Bet)

Andy Johnson - 1pt @ 81.0 (E/W 1, 2, 3, 4, ¼) (PaddyPower, Bluesq, Extrabet )