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2008/09 European League Preview (part three) - The Struggle for Europe

On paper, Everton to finish in the top six for the third consecutive season has excellent appeal at odds of 3.25. Everton have been a fairly unglamorous side over the past few years, but they have flourished under the shrewd stewardship of David Moyes. Solid if unspectacular, some may be concerned by their lack of signings this summer. To be precise, there have been none.

Worryingly, there have been very few transfer rumours, suggesting that there is little intent to add to the squad. Concerns over the lack of transfer funds and potential tension with chairman Bill Kenwright has seen Moyes' odds chopped for the sack. No doubt there would be a huge revolt from the fans if Moyes even came close to leaving Everton, for he has achieved an exceptional amount in trying circumstances.

There is no doubt that they have a strong squad, and with the likes of Joleon Lescott, Mikel Arteta and Yakubu, they have excellent balance in their team between resilience and flair. However, I am not entirely convinced that they can keep their impressive levels up for this season, although I expect them to continue to do relatively well for the resources they have been afforded. They should continue to perform respectably, but all teams around them have strengthened considerably, and this aspect should worry Everton fans.

Verdict: 8th place, but I wouldn't bet against them sneaking in the top six.

Ins: None.
Outs: Lee Carsley (Birmingham City, free), Stefan Wessels (VfL Osnabruck, free), Andrew Johnson (Fulham, undisclosed).

Manchester City are a team to watch out for this season, and early indications are that they are being under-rated by the bookies. In my opinion, it's inexplicable as to how they are rank outsiders in the ‘without big 4' market, behind the likes of Tottenham, Aston Villa and Everton.

Considering that Mark Hughes took Blackburn to seventh place in the league last year, it is fair to assume that he is capable of taking a club with a bigger budget much further. City finished ninth last year after an astonishingly good start to the season, but although Sven Goran Eriksson had the respect of the dressing room, he had no friends in the boardroom, and was sacked as they tailed off alarmingly in the second half of the season.

Hughes has refused the temptation to tinker too much with his squad, although he has added strength in depth by signing highly-rated Brazilian striker Jo from CSKA Moscow, along with Tal Ben Haim from Chelsea to bolster their defence. Martin Petrov was a revelation last season, and the blue half of Manchester have a team capable of pushing for Europe. One feels that the key to success is to get Elano firing on all cylinders once again, and reproduce the same form that saw him take the league by storm this time last year.

Verdict: 5th place, and a few shock wins along the way.

Ins: Jo (CSKA Moscow, £18m), Tal Ben Haim (Chelsea, undisclosed).

Outs: Georgios Samaras (Celtic, undisclosed), Andreas Isaksson (PSV Eindhoven, undisclosed), Geovanni (Hull, free), Emile Mpenza and Paul Dickov (both released), Sun Jihai (Sheffield United, free), Matthew Mills (Doncaster, £300,000).

Spurs flattered to deceive in the Premier League last season, and after a poor start under Martin Jol, they failed to improve significantly under Juande Ramos. Their defence was shocking, finishing with the fourth worst record in the league, conceding an incredible 61 goals.

In fairness, they looked a very solid unit when the reliable Ledley King and Jonathan Woodgate were playing, but without the pair marshalling the defence, they tended to fall apart completely. With constant injury doubts surrounding both players, we're keen to oppose Tottenham in the league this season, particularly when looking at some of the other transfers they have made so far.

Selling Robbie Keane to Liverpool was arguably a good business decision, but having been their most reliable striker over the past few seasons, he will be immensely tough to replace, particularly as they also offloaded Jermaine Defoe to Portsmouth in January. Granted, Spurs have made the most spectacular signings of the summer, but although the likes of David Bentley, Luka Modric and Giovanni dos Santos are remarkably talented, it seems a case of ‘too many cooks spoil the broth', and the team looks woefully imbalanced for Premier League purposes.

We also cannot expect what is essentially a brand new team to perform week-in, week-out, and there are bound to be some big teething problems. On paper, Spurs have an excellent side but there's no way we can back them with any confidence.  The bookies have set Spurs' season points at under/over 63.5 points, a mark which they have only cleared once in their Premiership history, during the 2005/06 season, where competition was far less fierce than it is now in the top half, and as such, this looks like a cracking opportunity.

Verdict: 9th would be a fair but disappointing result. Cup success looks to be their main chance of glory this season.

Portsmouth had a fantastic season last term, not only lifting the 2008 FA Cup but also securing eighth place in the league. Had they not taken their foot off the gas towards the end of the season, sixth place would have been a given.

This time round, Sulley Muntari has departed to Inter Milan, but they have acquired the services of Peter Crouch, who will form a remarkable ‘little and large' partnership with Jermaine Defoe. Crouch is a quality striker and will relish the opportunity of a near-guaranteed starting place at Pompey. Defoe has always been naturally gifted and the pair can propel Portsmouth higher than they've ever been in the Premiership.

Portsmouth are solid at the heart of defence, with the imposing trio of David James, Sol Campbell and Sylvain Distin creating a formidable fortress in front of goal. The only possible weak point at the moment is the midfield, which looks slightly lightweight in the absence of Muntari. However, Harry Redknapp is no mug, and his wheeling and dealing should see some more new arrivals before the end of the transfer window.

Verdict: 6th place, and Milan Mandaric is quietly seething.

Ins: Peter Crouch (Liverpool, £11m), Ben Sahar (Chelsea, loan), Glen Little (Reading, free), Omar Alieu Koroma (Banjul Hawks, undisclosed).

Outs: Sulley Muntari (Inter Milan, £12.7m), Omar Alieu Koroma (Norwich, loan), Joel Ward (Bournamouth, loan), Asmir Begovic (Yeovil, loan).

Aston Villa look another team who look well-placed to build on last season's efforts. The duo of Gabriel Agbonlahor and Ashley Young took the league by storm with their searing pace, and their combined ability down the wings was instrumental in Villa's success. With big Norweigan John Carew as their target man, the game plan is relatively simple but exceptionally effective.

All this being said, Aston Villa will probably be a side for us to avoid at the beginning of the season, with the club in the midst of an epic transfer struggle with Liverpool over the sale of Gareth Barry. As their captain and best player, Barry is central to Villa's aspirations. If he stays, then it will have unsettled the whole squad for a short time at least, and if he goes then it leaves little time to find a worthy replacement, and leaves a gaping hole in midfield.

Verdict: 7th place, another solid season.

Ins: Steve Sidwell (Chelsea, £5m), Curtis Davies (West Brom, undisclosed), Brad Friedel (Blackburn, £2m), Nicky Shorey (Reading, undisclosed), .

Outs: Thomas Sorensen (released), Patrik Berger (Sparta Prague, free), Luke Moore (West Brom, £3m).


NJ's Bets:

Double - Manchester City/Portsmouth to finish in top half - 5pts @ 2.87  (Ladbrokes)

Manchester City to win league w/o Big 4 - 1.5pts @ 9.0 (E/W, 1, 2, 3, ¼) (Bet365)

Manchester City to beat Newcastle (season match bet) - 5pts @ 1.57 (Coral)

Portsmouth to beat Newcastle (season match bet) - 5pts @ 1.67 (Bluesq, Bet365)

Aston Villa to beat Spurs (season match bet) - 3pts @ 2.75 (Ladbrokes)

Spurs under 63.5pts in the season - 5pts @ 1.8 (PaddyPower)