Premiership Opening Weekend 2008

Firstly, I won't start off with a clichéd blurb about how this is the perfect set of fixtures to get the season off to a mouth-watering start. Not many of the games this weekend make for appealing viewing, and it's a pretty disappointing set of matches to start off with.

I’m not entirely sure which genius dreamed up Bolton vs. Stoke as a game for the neutrals, but I can assure you that I certainly won’t be rushing to watch Match of the Day. All due respect to the teams involved, but West Ham vs. Wigan and Hull vs. Fulham are probably not going to be the hot topics at pubs across the country on Saturday night.

From a betting point of view, opening weekends can be dicey, and so I’m reluctant to get heavily involved in most markets until we’re a few weeks into the season.

Therefore, we should be very much interested in SkyBet’s specials market “Total goals scored by new faces on opening weekend?”

How many goals will be scored Aug 16/17 by these players debuting for new club?

Players: Nasri, Keane, Crouch, Modric, Zamora, Diouf, Elmander, Kitson & King.

SkyBet have the bar set at over/under 4.5 goals, which seems a touch high. Nasri, Modric and Diouf are all midfielders, whereas the rest are out-and-out strikers. However, out of this selection, only Robbie Keane plays for a team truly renowned for consistent goal scoring, and even Liverpool will find it tough to bang in the goals against Sunderland. Given that this weekend generally features fairly evenly matched sides, I would be surprised if we had goal fests across the board, and even more so if these players managed to clear the five goal barrier needed for this bet to cop.

Gareth Barry has excellent appeal in the ‘to score’ market as Manchester City travel to Aston Villa. Both teams are being tipped to have strong seasons, but they are both coming off midweek UEFA Cup fixtures. Manchester City were embarrassed at home, while Aston Villa managed a fairly convincing win in Iceland, although they looks immensely shaky in defence. After a long summer transfer debacle, Gareth Barry will surely be looking to win over the Villa Park crowd in the first home league match of the season, and 5.0 for him to score is simply too big.

Elsewhere, Sunderland look good for a draw against Liverpool. The Reds are coming into this game on the back of a goalless draw against Standard Liege, and we don’t fancy their chances against an organised Sunderland side who will be difficult to beat at home this season. 

Chelsea are unbeaten at home in the Premier League for over four years, and they face a Portsmouth side who have never beaten them in the league. However, Portsmouth are one of the toughest sides to beat in the league, and I reckon that there is value to be had in backing the draw as Chelsea may well struggle to cope with Portsmouth’s physical nature, particularly without the injured Didier Drogba.

Newcastle will be reluctant travellers to Old Trafford, keeping in mind the 6-0 stuffing they suffered at the hands of Manchester United soon after Kevin Keegan took over. Even without Cristiano Ronaldo in their ranks, Newcastle should be seen off comfortably, although I’m keen on dabbling in the HT/FT market in case United get off to a slow start.

NJ’s Bets:

Under 4.5 debutant goals on the weekend - 5pts @ 1.83 (SkyBet)

Gareth Barry to score anytime for Aston Villa vs. Man City - 2.5pts @ 5.0 (Coral)

Chelsea to draw with Portsmouth - 2.5pts @ 5.0 (StanJames)

Man Utd to beat Newcastle -1.5 Asian Handicap - 4pts @ 2.08 (VC Bet)

HT/FT Draw/Manchester United - 1.5pts @ 5.0 (SkyBet)