Super Rugby - Week 17 Part 2

By Gethin Palmer

Ouch that was a tough loss to take this morning; 36 pts scored with nearly 20 mins still left on the clock, one more score would have been enough....that's the fine margins we play. It seems the last few Super bets have fallen the wrong side of those fine margins (too many to the TMO in the last minute!) but I was take confidence from these type of losses. Knowing you are on the right lines and playing the value is what will keep you in the black rather than the red.

Crusaders v Blues



11th June 08:35GMT - Sky Sports 3

Crunch time for these two teams - the Crusaders have been there and delivered on the big occasion in the past while it has been a long time since the Blues were among silverware. With top spot in the NZ conference on the line and also the potential of controlling their destiny in the final week, one thing is for sure; both teams will be gunning for the win.

I simply can’t look past the Crusaders, although not at full strength I still feel they will have enough to beat a Blues side that seems to be playing in reverse. The decision to play Payne at 15 and Stanley at 13 to combat the Crusaders offence is negative and will cost them. Payne has been Mr. consistent and has been a great option for McAllister at 12; sadly Stanley doesn’t offer the same kind of outlet. I am less worried about losing McCaw (I think Todd was amazing in the first half of the season) than I am about the absentees in the backline but with the pack close to full strength and Ellis & DC back together, I feel the Crusaders have this.

I am tempted by the handicap but given the need for the Blues to finish within 7 and gain a bonus point makes the spread tricky but I have full confidence in a ‘Saders win.

Waratahs v Highlanders



11th June 10:40GMT - Sky Sports 3

If there is one thing Super rugby has proved this season (and every other season for that matter) it’s that there is no such thing as a straight forward victory. Saying that, with Waugh back in the ‘Tahs line up and Beale back at 15 against a Highlanders team that have very much fallen off the boil - chalk this up for a home win.

Waratahs have lost out to the Reds in the Australian conference and therefore their only chance of making the play off is to finish in the top 6 - presently they are 7th. However, both the Bulls & Sharks have tough games this weekend before facing each other next weekend whilst the ‘Tahs are home to the Brumbies. One win probably will be enough but that has to be this weekend so they can know relax a bit more next weekend. I think the boys from NSW will nab this win.

Highlanders started the season on fire and for me it’s a shame that their victories away to the Bulls & the Crusaders are likely to count for little come the end of season but it seems injuries at the wrong time, shuddered the momentum and now they look to be out of the running. Of course a win tomorrow will keep them in the hunt but I think they are running close to empty and a promising start will give them something to build on next year.

Force v Reds



11th June 13:05GMT - Sky Sports 3

In the reverse fixture in week 1, the Reds committed daylight robbery by snatching an undeserved win in the last minute. However, the Reds have kicked on a lot since then and have been mightily impressive in sowing up the Aus conference with weeks to spare. Play offs are guaranteed and although they will want to win the regular season and keep the momentum going they will also be conscious of keeping plenty in the tank for the matches that really matter. Last week against the Brumbies they look tired and injuries have certainly played there part this week.

The Force are growing year by year and with the news James O’Connor is likely to stay they have someone to build a franchise around. Despite being out of contention for some time their victory last week away to the Highlanders shows how much desire is in this team to win. Stannard looks very good at 10, the pack is back to full strength and O’Connor is back at 15 - Aus rugby wants him to start playing at 10 & 12 I guess as they seem him as a long term replacement to Giteau but for me, like Beale, he is most deadly at 15.

I fancy the Force at home, I think they will actually want this more and you can’t help but feel that the Reds have one eye on the finals and player conservation given their current injury concerns.

Stormers v Bulls



11th June 17:10GMT - Sky Sports 3

Every time the Stormers have played the big boys of SA rugby, i.e. the Bulls & the Sharks, they have come up trumps. They have just beaten their opponents; they have stuffed them in honesty. In previous years they used to get bullied by the bigger boys they are deservedly claiming bragging rights in SA.

The Bulls of late have started to put a run together and seem to be playing well when it matters, the form of the pack has improved immensely and Matfield is in white hot form - leading by example. I think the Bulls might just sneak into the playoffs, not sure how, probably by hook or by crook but I don’t think they will get their much needed victory this weekend.

The Stormers defence has been so impressive and shows no signs of letting up, they are very likely to win the SA conference but won’t be taking any chances. They will want to book their play off place by signing off with a win at home and not risk a tricky away fixture to the dangerous Cheetahs next week. Jaque Fourie is in sublime form and Burger has got his pack well marshaled, sorry Bulls fans, I see the Stormers being top dog again.

PICKS:

5pts DOUBLE - Crusaders & Waratahs both to win at 1.91, Stan James

3pts Force +5 to bt Reds at 1.91, Sky Bet

1pt Force to bt Reds by 1-12pts at 3.50, Stan James

2.5pts Stormers to bt Bulls by 1-12pts at 2.95, Bwin


Gethin Palmer