The speed chess version of cricket carries on in the IPL, and there have been checkmates on a daily basis.

Thursday sees the return of the longer form on the game and I believe this time there is unlikely to be a checkmate, more likely a boring stalemate instead.

Let’s look at the prices on the Exchanges:

England  1.74

New Zealand 8.0

Draw 3.25

In my opinion, only one price is right, the other two are woefully wrong.

New Zealand at 8.0 is about right, the England batting is extremely strong, especially with Ambrose and Broad in the lower order and I think the Kiwi bowling will struggle to force a win. However, we have seen England snatch defeat from the jaws of victory or draws in the past and so a Kiwi win cannot be completely ruled out, especially if they bat first and post an imposing total.

England at 1.74 is just plain WRONG !. Of course they can win, but anyone taking 1.7 on them is seriously cheating themselves and it’s almost a certainty that they will trade at long odds against in this test at some time. Yes they got the batsmen to post a big score, yes the Kiwi attack looks weak on paper, BUT, to win a test, it does not matter if you score 1000 runs, you need your bowlers to do the business.

I believe that on this Lord pitch, which has become a bit of a pudding in the last few years, it will take a monumental effort from the England bowlers to force a win and I feel they will fall short by a long way. Hoggard, if he plays, Sidebottom, Broad and Anderson all rely too much on helpful seaming conditions. The weather has been gorgeous in London in the last week and is set to continue this week and without any moisture or cloud cover this England bowling attack will struggle after the initial new ball period. Monty Panesar could be a threat, but he seems to have gone off the boil recently and the Lords pitch will not offer him much assistance till the second innings.

The Draw at 3.25 is undoubtedly the value price. Last four tests at Lords have been drawn and I am confident that this will go the same way. The main characteristic of Lords in recent years has been  that it becomes a batters dream in the 2^nd innings and I expect the same again.

The Kiwi batting, though not full of household names, is very capable of scoring enough runs on this pitch, against this bowling attack , in these weather conditions to score more then enough runs to at least ensure a draw.  Though they lack a superstar, they have enough talent in Ross Taylor, McCullum, Oram and Vettori to post big totals.

So, what is best betting strategy for this game?

In my opinion, the draw SHOULD be massively odds on, its not, lets not complain, lets take advantage!

If the pitch or the conditions turn out to be different from what I expect and it becomes a result match, then I see it as even stevens the two as far as the bowling is concerned and the Kiwis would be just as capable of winning on a result pitch as England so I feel it prudent to have a small saver on a Kiwi win too.

My Strong suggestion therefore is:

BACK the Draw @ 3.25 for 4 points (General)

BACK New Zealand @ 8.0 for 1 point (Betfair)

Join me, and though a stalemate could be boring, at least it will be  profitable.

Bigjoe.

Match 9 13/05/08

Test cricket is like long love ins. It’s for romantics who like to take their time, get to know their partners and slowly but surely seduce each other until a thrilling climax a few days later. Sometimes that thrilling climax never comes ( pun intended)!! Instead we end up with neither partner satisfied, but neither partner disappointed either.

Sometimes we get an earlier climax then expected, and like all premature climaxes, this leaves one of the partners bitterly disappointed and unsatisfied.

ODI cricket is more for those that prefer one night stands. A short period to get to know their partners, but pressure is on to get down to business quicker rather then later. These do reach a climax, sometime a thrilling one, sometimes not, but always one partner will be left satisfied, the other disappointed.

Then we have Twenty20 Cricket. This is defiantly for the “wham bam, thank you mam” merchants. No time for formalities, no time for introductions, no time for slow romantic seduction.. It’s straight down to business, no time to waste, it’s straight in, straight out.. No room here for subtlety or feelings, just pure lust.. The climax will be swift, but once again, only one partner will feel satisfied.

The love fest kicks off on Friday. Everyone that’s anyone will be there. The “long love in” types like Dravid and Kallis will mingle with the “one night stand” types like Ponting and Gayle and the “bam bam, thank you mam” types like Sehwag, Yuvraj and Afridi.

The format of this tournament has strict guidelines. Only 4 overseas franchised players will be allowed in each starting X1, and each squad must contain at least 4 young Indian players under the age of 22.

Big hitters will obviously be key in this event. But so will bowlers that have variety and can take the pace off the ball when required, and the calibre of the lesser known Indian players that will be in each teams line-up.

I believe the teams that have the best mixture of the above three elements will have the edge in this tournament and be the likely winners.

I have looked at each squad and have identified the following 2 teams that in my view meet the criteria. I believe both will do very well and I am reasonably confident the one of them will win it outright.

In my opinion, Kings X1 Punjab (Mohali) should be favourites for this tournament. They are not, they are currently trading at 7.4 on the exchanges and so represent great value.

They are captained by Yuvraj Singh, one of the stars of India’s recent world twenty20 winners. Also in the squad are the classy Sri Lankan pair Kumar Sangakarra and Mahela Jayawardne, the in form Ramnaresh Sarwan and big hitting Aussie Simon Katich.

The bowlers include pacers Brett Lee,  Sreesanth and Irfan Pathan, the man of the match in that world Twenty20 final a few months ago.

The spinning options are Chawla and Powar, both have effective in ODI series lately. The squad also includes exciting Indian youngsters Tanmay Srivastava, Uday Kaul and Ajitesh Argal.

Overall I think this team has all the ingredients required for this format of the game and they are outstanding value.

Delhi Daredevils ( Delhi )  is the other team that I feel represents great value at the current 9.8 on the exchanges.

Captained by the master blaster Virender Sehwag, the batting line-up also includes the explosive talents of AB de Villiers, Tillkeratne Dilshan, Gautam Ghambhir, Shoaib Malik and Dinesh Kartik.

All-rounders Farveez Maharoof and Manoj Tiwary make up an impressive batting lineup and with Mohammed Asif, Glenn McGrath and Daniel Vettori the three main bowlers, this squad has the balance and the experience to go far in this tournament.

Of course all the teams in this tournament can boast big names and all have a chance to win, but I feel balance is going to be the critical factor here, and I think in that department, these teams from Mohali and Delhi have the edge.

My suggested betting strategy is simple:

In the Outright Market:

BACK Kings X1 Punjab ( Mohali ) for 3 points @ 7.4 on Betfair

BACK Delhi Daredevils ( Delhi ) for 2 points @ 9.8 on Betfair

Futhermore:

Prematch, BACK both of these teams for 3 points a time in EACH of their games in this tournament, apart obviously from when they meet.

I am confident that following this simple strategy will result in a profit overall.

Join me and we could all be feeling very satisfied after six weeks of “ wham bam, thank you Mam”.

Bigjoe.