Baseball - Understanding Statistics


Baseball, in my opinion, of all sports is the best sport to bet on. With so many games on a daily basis throughout the season, there is every opportunity to win. Of course there is every opportunity to lose but how you strategise your betting is the key to betting baseball or any other sports for that matter. It can be a daily grind but if like me, you learn to love the game, it is a labour of love. Like most American sports, there are two possible outcomes. In event of a tie in regulation time or innings, they play on until there is a clear winner. Unlike most sports apart from horse-racing, there is a clear reliance on statistics/form to form a reference point. The time spent researching a viewpoint is the key.

To fully understand baseball is to devote yourself to the sport 24/7 every single day, year in, year out. That may sound daunting to a novice or even the occasional bettor. The baseball season is long with a team playing 162 games in the regular season and many more if that team makes the playoffs. It stretches from April to September with the playoffs taking place in October. Considering Spring training starts from mid February and the nature of the movement of baseball personnel (trades/free agency), it is easy to understand how the fantasy world and the internet media can easily generate enough reading material to overwhelm even the most rabid of baseball fans. There are plenty of opinions but as we all know, opinions are subjective.

This is why baseball uses statistics to evaluate their players. Their reasoning: the numbers do not lie. One thing that may surprise you is how much statistical data there is on every MLB player. Given the large sample size available and the individualistic nature of baseball, it is a scientific way of evaluating players and their performances. There are basic statistics that gain immediate attention such as ERA (Earned Run Average), batting average, HR (home runs) and the recent trend in applying more advanced statistics (sabermetrics) in an attempt to fully understand a player’s complete performance.

There are sabermetricians who devise formulas in an attempt to delve deep into a player’s true ability and there are plenty of “stats-geek” or “anoraks” that devises their own formulas to add to the continued development of sabermetrics. Bill James is the most famous sabermetrician whose use of statistical data has helped spawn a new generation of GMs, general managers with no professional experience of the game but they possess the Ivy-League ability to delve through a range of statistics to mould a ball-club. For example, Oakland As GM Billy Beane’s Moneyball philosophy emphasised patience and a high OBP (On base percentage) and OPS (OBP + Slugging average) and he has moulded his club in recent years to adhere to those parameters, thus redefining the As offence away from traditional measures of perceived abilities. Never mind, if a player has a low average, it’s his OBP and OPS that fully defines his offensive contribution to the side. The Oakland Athletics’ Jack Cust is one such player who does not fit the mould of an everyday player but the As chose to value his OBP and OPS despite his low average and high strikeout tendencies and subpar defence. The statistics also help forecast player performance and it also helps GMs make an informed decision whether to sign a player, whether in a draft or via free agency.

There is also a sub-industry in the shape of the Minor Leagues where each MLB teams has affiliates (feeder clubs). Each affiliation plays in leagues that are ranked by standards. Generally the younger a player, the more likely he is set to start at the lowest. Should he prove himself at that level, he’ll be promoted to the next level and so on. Even at high school and college level, statistics are kept religiously. All players in the minors and college/high school are also subject to the same level of statistical scrutiny as a major league player.

How we interpret those statistical data form the reference point of baseball betting. Personally, a big part of baseball betting is the time taken to research those views. BUT we also form opinions on sports betting using our personal judgement of the participants as well as statistical data. Statistical data may not lie but they do not include the human element, hence baseball’s desire to fully understand the continued development of sabermetrics. They also do not tell us about the quality of the pitches, whether they throw 96 mph or 89 mph. That is true of horse racing where we attempt to decipher the form to pick our perceived winners. But form alone does not accurately gauge a true measure of a horse’s chance to win a particular race. The trainers’ quotes, the gallops report all help to form an accurate picture of a horse’s ability and readiness to win the race. In football, the reliance on statistical data is mainly limited to the corners/goals markets and the recent form and the league table. When betting sides in football, we use our perception of a team’s ability rather then glance through a multitude of Opta statistics to determine a winner or a draw.

A fine case in point is Michael Owen. Despite media clamour for the inclusion of Michael Owen on the basis of his goals record in Capello’s England squad, he has steadfastly stood firm in excluding him citing his overall contribution to the team and fitness concerns as the main factors. So statistical data vs personal judgement? Does Capello rely on his Opta statistics as the basis for omitting Owen from his England squad? I’d wager not. The point is, statistical data is all well and good in creating a viewpoint but using your eyes is as good as any reference point.

In baseball, the reference points from statistics are from a sample size much larger then you could fathom. Every player who has played the game from the minors to the majors are under a microscope. Every meaningful act they do in the game is recorded and updated to the database. An error, a passed ball, flyouts, and even manager ejections are all recorded. Even umpire statistics are recorded for those who like to factor in the umpire’s strike zone or home bias when betting totals.

Those types of statistics can be found on many American sites such as Yahoo, MSN and ESPN who all possess a statistical library of all MLB players. There are so many variables you can use to form your reference point. There are career year statistics, split stats with many variables from night/day, left/right, ballpark, monthly performances, and we also have a comprehensive run down of every pitching matchup against every batters. Other sites such as the Hardball times possess more in-depth data. We will discuss those in future articles.

Throughout the season, I will be covering the primary use of statistics and other advanced sabermetrics.

We start with the Box Score. The Box score can be found on all American media outlets such as ESPN, MSN and Yahoo as well as MLB.com. The information does not just tell us what the score is in the game, but what actually happened play by play. Below is an example of a box score from Yahoo.

(10-17)	Final   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   R   H   E       Cleveland 0 2 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 6 13 0       Toronto 0 1 0 0 0 2 7 0 X 10 12 1     WP: B. Wolfe (1-0) LP: V. Chulk (0-1)	(19-10)

Scoring Summary

Top 2nd: Cleveland

- B. Francisco singled to left, M. LaPorta to second, M. LaPorta scored, B. Francisco to second on left fielder T. Snider's fielding error

- G. Sizemore grounded into fielder's choice, B. Francisco scored, K. Shoppach out at second

Bot 2nd: Toronto

- L. Overbay doubled to deep center, A. Lind scored

Bot 6th: Toronto

- A. Lind singled to center, M. Scutaro and T. Snider scored, V. Wells to third

Top 7th: Cleveland

- V. Martinez singled to left, K. Shoppach scored, G. Sizemore to third, A. Cabrera to second

- A. Cabrera scored, V. Martinez to third, M. DeRosa to second on wild pitch

- J. Peralta singled to center, V. Martinez and M. DeRosa scored, S. Choo to second

Bot 7th: Toronto

- A. Hill singled to center, R. Chavez and T. Snider scored, M. Scutaro to second

- A. Rios singled to center, M. Scutaro scored, A. Hill to second

- A. Lind homered to deep right, A. Rios and A. Hill scored

- S. Rolen homered to deep left

Cleveland
	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	LOB	Season Avg
G. Sizemore cf	5	0	1	1	0	2	2	.241
A. Cabrera 2b	5	1	2	0	0	0	2	.319
V. Martinez 1b	5	1	3	1	0	0	1	.389
M. DeRosa 3b	5	1	1	0	0	2	3	.239
S. Choo dh	3	0	0	0	1	2	3	.253
R. Garko ph	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	.297
J. Peralta ss	5	0	3	2	0	2	1	.219
M. LaPorta rf	3	1	0	0	0	1	4	.100
B. Francisco lf	4	1	2	0	0	0	1	.250
K. Shoppach c	2	1	1	0	0	1	1	.234
Totals	38	6	13	4	1	10	18

Batting 2B - J Peralta (6, B Cecil).   RBI - G Sizemore (22), V Martinez (15), J Peralta 2 (10).   2-out RBI - J Peralta 2.   Runners left in scoring position, 2 out - V Martinez 1, J Peralta 1, S Choo 1, M LaPorta 2.   GIDP - S Choo.   Team LOB - 9.

Base Running SB - B Francisco (4, 3rd base off B Cecil/R Chavez).   CS - G Sizemore (4, 2nd base by B Cecil/R Chavez).    Fielding DP - 1 (K Shoppach-A Cabrera).

Toronto
	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	LOB	Season Avg
M. Scutaro ss	4	2	2	0	1	0	0	.270
A. Hill 2b	4	1	1	2	0	1	3	.357
A. Rios rf	4	1	1	1	0	2	1	.266
V. Wells cf	3	0	0	0	1	0	2	.281
A. Lind dh	4	2	3	5	0	0	0	.333
S. Rolen 3b	4	1	1	1	0	1	3	.309
L. Overbay 1b	4	0	1	1	0	1	0	.239
R. Chavez c	4	1	1	0	0	0	1	.263
T. Snider lf	4	2	2	0	0	1	0	.234
Totals	35	10	12	10	2	6	10

Batting 2B - L Overbay (7, An Reyes).   HR - A Lind (6, 7th inning off T Sipp 2 on, 2 Out), S Rolen (3, 7th inning off T Sipp 0 on, 2 Out).   RBI - L Overbay (12), A Lind 5 (29), A Hill 2 (24), A Rios (14), S Rolen (10).   2-out RBI - L Overbay, A Lind 5, S Rolen.   Runners left in scoring position, 2 out - R Chavez 1, S Rolen 1.   Team LOB - 3.

Base Running CS - M Scutaro (1, 2nd base by An Reyes/K Shoppach).    Fielding E - T Snider (1, bobble).   DP - 1 (A Hill-M Scutaro-L Overbay).

Cleveland
	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	Season ERA
A. Reyes	6.0	6	3	3	1	5	0	6.84
R. Perez (H, 4)	0.1	2	2	2	0	0	0	15.19
V. Chulk (L, 0-1)	0.0	1	2	2	1	0	0	3.75
J. Lewis (BS, 4)	0.1	1	1	1	0	0	0	5.93
T. Sipp	0.1	2	2	2	0	0	2	3.60
M. Kobayashi	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3.72
Toronto
	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	Season ERA
B. Cecil	6.0	6	2	1	0	6	0	1.50
J. Frasor (H, 2)	0.1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0.79
J. Carlson (BS, 1)	0.1	3	3	3	1	0	0	3.00
B. Wolfe (W, 1-0)	0.2	2	0	0	0	1	0	0.00
S. Downs	1.2	1	0	0	0	3	0	0.59

WP - J Carlson.

HBP - M LaPorta (by B Cecil); K Shoppach 2 (by B Cecil 2).

Pitches-strikes - An Reyes 92-58; R Perez 11-6; V Chulk 8-4; J Lewis 9-6; T Sipp 15-10; M Kobayashi 9-8; B Cecil 96-61; J Frasor 9-5; J Carlson 24-14; B Wolfe 15-11; S Downs 16-13.

Ground balls-fly balls - An Reyes 4-8; R Perez 1-0; V Chulk 0-0; J Lewis 0-1; T Sipp 1-0; M Kobayashi 0-2; B Cecil 7-4; J Frasor 1-0; J Carlson 1-0; B Wolfe 0-1; S Downs 2-0.

Batters faced - An Reyes 24; R Perez 3; V Chulk 2; J Lewis 2; T Sipp 3; M Kobayashi 3; B Cecil 25; J Frasor 2; J Carlson 5; B Wolfe 4; S Downs 6.

Game Details

Umpires: HP--Tim Welke. 1B--Scott Barry. 2B--Angel Hernandez. 3B--Bill Welke. Time: 3:12. Attendance: 22,005. Weather: INDOORS

Below is a list of common statistics found in box scores dependant on which website you choose to use with their definitions.

Batting statistics

•    AB—At bat: Batting appearances, not including bases on balls, hit by pitch, sacrifices, interference, or obstruction.
•    H—Hits: times reached base because of a batted, fair ball without error by the defense
•    1B—Single: hits on which the batter reached first base safely without the contribution of a fielding error.
•    2B—Double: hits on which the batter reached second base safely without the contribution of a fielding error.
•    3B—Triple: hits on which the batter reached third base safely without the contribution of a fielding error.
•    BB—Base on balls (also called a "walk"): times receiving four balls and advancing to first base
•    BA—Batting average (also abbreviated AVG): hits divided by at bats.
•    HR—Home runs: hits on which the batter successfully touched all four bases, without the contribution of a fielding error.
•    BABIP Batting average on balls in play: frequency of which a batter reaches a base after putting the ball in the field of play. Also a pitching category.
•    BB/K—Walk-to-strikeout ratio: number of base on balls divided by number of strikeouts
•    XBH—Extra base hits: doubles plus triples plus home runs
•    FC—Fielder's choice: times reaching base when a fielder chose to try for an out on another runner
•    GO/AO—Ground ball fly ball ratio: number of ground ball outs divided by number of fly ball outs
•    GDP or GIDP—Ground into double play: number of ground balls hit that became double plays
•    GS—Grand Slam: a home run with the bases loaded, resulting in four runs scoring, and four RBI credited to the batter.
•    AB/HR At bats per home run: at bats divided by home runs.
•    HBP—Hit by pitch: times touched by a pitch and awarded first base as a result
•    IBB—Intentional base on balls: times awarded first base on balls (see BB above) deliberately thrown by the pitcher. Also known as IW (intentional walk).
•    K—Strike out (also abbreviated SO): number of times that strike three is taken or swung at and missed, or bunted foul
•    LOB—Left on base: number of runners not out nor scored at the end of an inning.
•    OBP—On base percentage: times reached base (H + BB + HBP) divided by at bats plus walks plus hit by pitch plus sacrifice flies (AB + BB + HBP + SF).
•    OPS—On-base plus slugging: on-base percentage plus slugging average
•    PA—Plate appearance: number of completed batting appearances 
•    RBI—Run batted in: number of runners who scored due to a batters' action, except when batter grounded into double play or reached on an error
•    RISP—Runner In Scoring Position: the batter's batting average with runners in scoring position
•    SB%—Stolen base percentage: the percent of bases stolen successfully. (SB) divided by (SBA).
•    SF—Sacrifice fly: number of fly ball outs to the outfield which allow a runner already on base to score
•    SH—Sacrifice hit: number of sacrifice bunts which allows another runner to advance on the basepaths or score
•    SLG—Slugging average: total bases divided by at-bats
•    TA—Total average: total bases, plus walks, plus hit by pitch, plus steals, minus caught stealing divided by at bats, minus hits, plus caught stealing, plus grounded into double play
•    TB—Total bases: one for each single, two for each double, three for each triple, and four for each home run
Baserunning statistics
•    CS—Caught stealing: times tagged out while attempting to steal a base
•    SB—Stolen base: number of bases advanced other than on batted balls, walks, or hits by pitch
o    DI—Defensive Indifference: if the catcher does not attempt to throw out a runner (usually because the run would be insignificant), the runner is not awarded a steal
•    R—Runs scored: times reached home base legally and safely
Pitching statistics
•    BB—Base on balls (also called a "walk"): times pitching four balls, allowing the batter-runner to advance to first base
•    BB/9: Base on balls times nine divided by innings pitched (Bases on balls per 9 innings pitched)
•    BF—Total batters faced: opponent's total plate appearances
•    BK—Balk: number of times pitcher commits an illegal pitching action or other illegal action while in contact with the pitching rubber, thus allowing baserunners to advance
•    BS—Blown save: number of times entering the game in a save situation, and being charged the run (earned or not) which eliminates his team's lead. Technically, a blown save is given as a “decision”. However, yahoo box scores may list several blown saves as early as the 6th innings but that blown save will not be included in that pitcher’s final line as the final decision will result in a Win and Loss, Save or Blown Save if applicable.
•    CG—Complete game: number of games where player was the only pitcher for his team
•    ER—Earned run: number of runs that did not occur as a result of errors or passed balls
•    ERA—Earned run average: total number of earned runs (see "ER" above), multiplied by 9, divided by innings pitched
•    G—Games (AKA "appearances"): number of times a pitcher pitches in a season
•    G/F—Ground ball fly ball ratio: ground balls allowed divided by fly balls allowed
•    GS—Starts: number of games pitched where player was the first pitcher for his team
•    H/9—Hits per nine innings: hits allowed times nine divided by innings pitched (also known as H/9IP—Hits allowed per 9 innings pitched)
•    H—Hits Allowed: total hits allowed
•    HB—Hit batsman: times hit a batter with pitch, allowing runner to advance to first base
•    HLD (or H)—Hold: number of games entered in a save situation, recorded at least one out, did not surrender the lead, and did not complete the game
•    HR—Home runs allowed: total home runs allowed
•    IBB: Intentional base on balls allowed
•    IP—Innings pitched: number of outs recorded while pitching divided by three
•    IP/GS: Average number of innings pitched per game
•    IR—Inherited runners: number of runners on base when the pitcher enters the game
•    K—Strikeout: number of batters who received strike three
•    K/9—Strikeouts per nine innings: strikeouts times nine divided by innings pitched (Strikeouts per 9 innings pitched)
•    K/BB—Strikeout-to-walk ratio: number of strikeouts divided by number of base on balls
•    L—Loss: number of games where pitcher was pitching while the opposing team took the lead, never lost the lead, and went on to win
•    OBA—Opponents batting average: hits allowed divided by at-bats faced (BAA)
•    PIT: Pitches thrown (Pitch count)
•    QS—Quality start: a game in which a starting pitcher completes at least six innings and permits no more than three runs
•    RA—Run average: number of runs allowed times nine divided by innings pitched 
•    SO: Strikeout Also may be notated as "K".
•    SV—Save: number of games where the pitcher enters a game led by the pitcher's team, finishes the game without surrendering the lead, is not the winning pitcher, and either (a) the lead was three runs or less when the pitcher entered the game; (b) the potential tying run was on base, at bat, or on deck; or (c) the pitcher pitched three or more innings
•    W—Win: number of games where pitcher was pitching while his team took the lead and went on to win
•    WHIP—Walks and hits per inning pitched: average number of walks and hits allowed by the pitcher per inning
•    WP—Wild pitches: charged when a pitch is too high, low, or wide of home plate for the catcher to field, thereby allowing one or more runners to advance or score
Fielding statistics
•    A—Assists: number of outs recorded on a play where a fielder touched the ball, except if such touching is the putout
•    CI—Catcher's Interference (e.g. catcher makes contact with bat)
•    DP—Double plays: one for each double play during which the fielder recorded a putout or an assist.
•    E—Errors: number of times a fielder fails to make a play he should have made with common effort, and the offense benefits as a result
•    FP—Fielding percentage: total plays (chances minus errors) divided by the number of total chances
•    INN—Innings: number of innings that a player is at one certain position
•    PB—Passed ball: charged to the catcher when the ball is dropped and one or more runners advance
•    PO—Putout: number of times the fielder tags, forces, or appeals a runner and he is called out as a result
•    TC—Total chances: assists plus putouts plus errors
•    TP—Triple play: one for each triple play during which the fielder recorded a putout or an assist
General statistics
•    G—Games played: number of games where the player played, in whole or in part
•    GB—Games behind: number of games a team is behind the division leader

It is worth familiarising yourselves with the relevant statistics and what they tell you in general.

Giant_Causway