Baseball - Understanding Statistics Part Six

In previous articles, it may appear that there is a heavy reliance on starting pitching statistics when handicapping games, but there are other factors to consider.

Though I noted the pitching statistics as a main reference point, looking at his profile as a whole and knowing his history is just as important. For example, Zack Greinke, Brad Penny and Javier Vasquez were three noted pitchers who went into many fantasy notebooks, not for their performances but their history and off-season moves.

Kansas City Royals' Pitcher Zack Greinke

Zack Greinke is the highly talented hurler who went through anxiety problems after making his MLB debut at just 20 years. He has always had tremendous stuff but lacked the command and maturity to fulfil his potential early in his career. He quit the game in his third season but came back after seeking help and at just 25 year old, he is coming into his prime with the tools, maturity and experience to become an elite pitcher. When the Braves tried to trade for him this past off-season, the Royals demanded four elite prospects or no deal giving notice of the regard they had for him. Not surprisingly, the Braves baulked at the thought of giving up Tommy Hanson and three other similarly elite prospects considering how the Mets practically gave up nothing to acquire Johan Santana. Earlier in the season, I had labelled him baseball’s best kept secret but after some dominating early starts, the bookies had overvalued him and he has predictably shown regression (it’s tough to pitch with no run support and keep an ERA at 0.50!)

Brad Penny and Javier Vazquez swopped leagues in the off-season, with Vazquez coming to the NL and Penny to the AL. There have been several pitchers who have swopped leagues in the past. As a rule the NL is perceived to be much easier to pitch in with no Designated Hitters and more teams applying small ball philosophy. The likes of Ted Lilly, Johan Santana, Tim Hudson, Derek Lowe, Dan Haren, Chris Carpenter, Rich Harden, Jamie Moyer, Bronson Arroyo, CC Sabathia and even Daniel Cabrera have all enjoyed improved numbers across the board when moving to the NL. But on the other hand, the likes of Joe Blanton, Mark Hendrikson, Mark Mulder, Barry Zito, have all regressed but their repertoire are distinctly average with no overpowering pitch. Vazquez’s been up and down but he’s pitched much better in the NL. His strikeout rate has been outstanding but as the league catches up with his stuff, he should not have too much potential for improvement.

Javier Vazquez

To the AL, with the notable exception of AJ Burnett, the likes of Javier Vazquez (Dbacks to White Sox), Randy Johnson (Dbacks to Yankees, though his age is a big factor), Josh Beckett, Vicente Padilla, Sean Gallagher (small sample size), and Dontrelle Willis (was already in steep decline) all showed significant regression of their number from the NL. Brad Penny has settled down after a shaky start and shown his liking for the big stage steadily improving and giving the Sox six innings. He won’t post numbers he achieved in his best NL years but like Pavano, another member of that talented Marlins rotation in 2003, he knows how to pitch.

Whilst Starting Pitching is rightly considered the main reference point in handicapping games, a starting pitcher will rarely pitch complete games. Given there is a MLB wide shift to youth with teams looking to manage their payroll by looking into their farm system for rotation help, the plethora of young pitchers learning their craft in the majors will place greater strain on the bullpens.

Why? Because of the general length of their starts. Young pitchers will struggle to manage their pitch count effectively as they learn their craft in the majors. They will struggle with their command and location of their pitches and experience growing pains with hard luck stories with one bad pitch deciding games, short outings, loss of command and control. It is worth keeping in mind that some managers are under strict orders from their GMs to watch Pitch Count especially in young pitchers. The Verducci Effect, as it is known, is to gradually introduce incremental increases in innings at the early stages of a young pitcher’s career on an annual basis. But it is not just young pitchers who are prone to short outings. There are plenty of veteran pitchers who cannot pitch deep into games as they rack up their pitch counts through walks, strikeouts and give up a multitude of hits. So we have to factor in the bullpens into our decision making.

Bullpen performance fluctuates from year to year. A bullpen generally consists of defined roles. The closer and a pair of setup men are generally used in close games and winning situations, The lefty and righty specialists are used when a matchup dictates the need of a left vs left or right vs right or even when a double play ball is needed. Then we have the longmen who can start games from time to time (spot start) or “take one for the team” by eating up innings after the starting pitcher left the game early (mop-up duty). They may only pitch 50-70 innings per season but they are involved in the game on a daily basis and still have to put their arms through the strain of bullpen sessions to warm up on the off chance they may be needed. Recent examples of bullpen stress are the Mets in 2008 when their starters did not pitch deep into games as a unit and stressed out a bullpen that had already shown signs of wear and tear in 2007. This season the Phillies have to be watched as their starters haven’t gone deep in game with the likes of Moyer and Blanton both prone to short outings.

Knowing your bullpens inside out is important. Not just the closers but the setup men and their career record against their opponents. With that knowledge in mind, you may opt to bet five innings to avoid having to trust a dodgy bullpen, making it essentially a clash of starting pitchers. Teams like the Nationals and Indians will always give opponents a chance of getting back into the game due to the bullpens. The Phillies have already overcome deficits against the Braves, Rockies, Nationals and the Marlins.

Big Lou Piniella

The Yankees scored ten against Detroit in one inning after a pitching duel!! But the Indians also scored nine in one innings against the Yankees in their new stadium’s first game.       

Equally as important, is the manager. Already this season, we have seen Big Lou Piniella and Trey Hillman mismanage their bullpens. It is patently obvious they do not trust certain pitchers and that does not fill pitchers with confidence. The fact they have shown signs of panic does not bode too well for the rest of the season. Despite the horrible performance of the Yankees bullpen so far, Joe Girardi has shown patience, understanding and a persistent belief in his relievers and given the likes of Veras, Ramirez are still young combined with Girardi’s talent of keeping his bullpen arms fresh, the Yankees will improve as the season wears on.

Bullpens also factors in when handicapping totals. You may be split in your projections for starting pitching and look to the bullpen for affirmation of your viewpoint. But at the end of the day, it comes down to how much you can trust a bullpen. Bullpen meltdowns tend to be random with no warning of things to come. Like poker, we get bad beats on a daily basis and rather then try to avoid them, we have to take a chance that bullpen will hold up on the night. Given starters generally pitch 5-6 innings before handing over to the pen, those 3-4 innings of work by the pen will decide whether you cash in or not.

Defence

Defence only comprises a tiny portion of our handicapping. They come into play when a certain pitcher with groundball tendencies such as Derek Lowe, Brett Anderson, AJ Burnett start the game but generally, catchers occupy the defensive side of the game. For example, Tim Wakefield generally needs a specialist catcher for his knuckleball as regular catcher Jason Varitek has shown he is uncomfortable in handling Wakefield’s pitches. Given catchers, like second basemen, are considered 2nd class hitters compared to corner outfielders and infielders, a slugging catcher like Ryan Doumit, Victor Martinez and Joe Mauer makes all the difference in the line-up, making it that much deeper and tougher to pitch to.

Some catchers also do not fare well against aggressive base running teams because they do not possess the arm to throw out a steal attempt. For example, last season, Yankees catcher Jorge Posada played hurt and teams took advantage of Posada’s inability to throw out base-stealers by running aggressively.

One thing that has magnified since writing for Priceform is the hard luck stories when betting totals. When a defence has cost you unearned runs thus bumping the score line over the total line, that is hard to swallow but it

A Liability? Manny Ramirez

is something you cannot legislate for. Defences will always fluctuate from game to game. A player may suddenly have a bad game and commit two errors.

When we hear about the likes of Manny Ramirez or Alfonso Soriano being a liability in the outfield, that is because there is always the possibility he will cost his pitcher extra runs, and as a consequence, extra outs and shorter outings with subpar fielding. Incorporating defensive factors into the overall picture is not a necessity but as in sports, the small details decide games. You may have a matchup of equal starters and bullpen with line-ups equally powerful or anaemic and no way of separating them. Of course you should walk away from that proposed bet but for those who thrives on challenges, defence may just sway that vote to a particular side!

Offence

Hitting is linked to pitching. That much is obvious. Like Yin to Yang, fire to water. If a pitcher has shown bad career numbers against a certain team, we check the pitcher vs hitters statistics and the seasonal numbers for an explanation. It could be skewed by one bad season where the pitcher battled injuries or just a quirk of numbers. Good offensive teams like Texas are well known and the bookies have adjusted the totals for them to at least ten in plenty of their home games. Despite their pitching, that offence will always give them a chance of winning the game. The main team variable is batting average against a certain team. Other numbers such as OBP and OPS are secondary statistics but equally as important when projecting runs or gaining a general picture of a team’s capabilities.

Like pitching, there are also similar variables such as home/road, night/day, seasonal and team splits. BUT at the end of the day, pitching is still king given the .300 benchmark in batting average. How much attention you give to the offence is invariably linked with starting pitching and the bullpen.

The other type of bet where offence is factored is the totals bet. Under or over? Check the pitching and offence. Very often, a pitcher looks to have bad numbers but the offence in question has simply not been hitting. This season, Boston and Minnesota scuffled in the early weeks despite facing some substandard pitching. Recently, the Diamondbacks have gone through offensive woes as well as the Braves. The likes of Seattle and San Diego just does not have the firepower in their line-up to consistently trouble bad pitching.

Weather conditions

Wrigley Field, the home of the Chicago Cubs is one of the most notorious ballpark where weather conditions can influence a ballgame. The wind factor is the main component where wind conditions can “blow in” or “blow out” of Wrigley Field, thus turning sure-fire home runs into flyballs and sure-fire flyouts into fielding errors or turning weak flyballs into home runs. That is why, bookies set the total for Cubs home games at the last minute to collate as much weather data they can gather. Playing in a dome can also affect pitching. Admittedly, Tim Wakefield is one of just two knuckleballers in MLB (Robin Dickey is the other) and his record when pitching indoors is impressive.

Team Line-up

Getaway days signifies the last game of the series on normally Thursdays and Sundays where a team may opt to bench a regular in favour of giving bench players playing time and at bats. Whilst that may only affect a small portion of handicapping on those days, a deep line-up may suddenly look lightweight with only 2-3 threats and it may be worth backing the unders in such circumstances. For example, in the Texas and Oakland matchup with Padilla and Braden as the starting pitchers, the bookies set the line at 9.5. Given Texas’ lines are set at 10, it is clear the bookies wanted to tempt over backers in setting the line at 9.5. As a rule I always try to leave it late as possible before betting as most line-ups are submitted an hour before game time at the earliest. This may affect whether I bet totals or whether a pitcher with an impossible looking task has had his task made a lot easier with the benching of regular position players. Yes I do have to submit most articles usually way before I know the teams but I do factor in

Are umpires Bias?

assumptions and as noted, decisions should be left until the last minute until you have every single shred of information at your disposal.

Umpire Bias

When betting totals, looking at umpire statistics can be a useful tool. Generally the strike zone has slight variation on size from umpire to umpire. But the statistics tells us whether there is a bias to under/over or home/road teams. When you watch baseball, you will notice some umpire have inconsistencies when calling strikes. A pitcher may throw two similar pitches in exactly the same location but one of them will be a strike and the other a ball. As a rule, I look at the pitchers first before looking to the umpire statistics before I lock any wager on totals. Pitching is still king!

Park Factor

Certain ballparks have bias towards either pitchers or hitters. The likes of Citizen Bank park (Phillies), US Cellular Field (White Sox), Great American ballpark (Reds), and Rangers ballpark (Rangers) are all noted hitters haven. On the other end of the scale, we have Dodgers Stadium (Dodgers), PNC Park (Pirates), PETCO Park (Padres) and the most extreme of all, Safeco Field (Mariners) who are all pitchers’ parks. There are fair ballparks like Busch Stadium (Cards), Turner Field (Braves) and Progressive Field (Indians) with no bias and other ballparks that split opinions such as Coors Field (Rockies) and Minute Maid Park (Astros). Both Coors and Minute Maid were generally grouped as hitters’ parks with the thin Denver air and the dimensions of Minute Maid thought to be amenable to hitting. However, despite the glut of home runs at Coors in the last decade, there has been a slight decline in run production. The way they store balls has changed and in Houston, unders have as good as chance as overs looking at statistics. With both New York teams playing in their new stadiums we already have some idea of how both park plays. Yankee Stadium already have more homers then any team and there are already reports of the front office looking to move the wall back at the end of the season. Citi Field has the tag of a pitchers park given the team’s struggles in home runs. Both David Wright and

The Home of the St Louis Cardinals Busch Stadium

Carlos Beltran has already voiced their frustrations at seeing what they feel are legitimate home runs in any other park turn simply into flyballs in the “cavernous” setting of Citi Field.

Combining all factors will give you every chance of analysing a game reasonably well. But it is important to note that statistics represent the mean. Just because a pitcher has a 4.50 ERA does not mean he will give up a run every two innings pitched. He will experience ups and downs. He may inexplicably have a bad outing but you may still be lucky enough to win your bet despite his performance.

We also have strategies to consider and the quirks of numbers. As you watch more baseball, you may notice some certain quirks and choose to base your strategy on them. They say never bet against the streak or always bet against the public. But I just prefer to believe in the numbers. Yes I may change the way I handicap games as I evolve as a person and as a handicapper. I may look to combine contrarian strategies with pragmatism but in the here and now, I still believe in the numbers. The numbers do not lie!

Analysis is only half the battle though and bet selection forms the other half. Looking at the markets could yield value plays previously not thought of. Some may call it over thinking but I believe in backing prices that provide the value. Some prices are just too big to ignore and are worth a play given some glimmer of hope. We can all pick Yankees every time and hit 60% for the season but they are the public play and invariably overvalued thus even a 60% strike-rate is no guarantee to a profit.

Kevin Pullein once remarked, “the more you bet, the more chance you have to win”. He wasn’t advocating increasing your stake but increasing the quantity of your bets. Personally I play around on average, 5-6 baseball plays a day. That may seem excessive but at value prices, a 3-3 record would yield a profit. If those prices are big, a 2-3 record could even yield a profit. The point is, baseball betting, like the game itself is a marathon. A baseball team play 162 games a year in the regular season and even if you restricted yourselves to two plays a day, you’d still be betting fourteen plays a week.

Despite the time spent in handicapping games, it is important to remember it is just a game and to coin a cliché, “there’s always tomorrow” is literally just that! Tomorrow brings another slate of games. The day I do not enjoy handicapping games is the day I stop betting baseball and enjoy the game in its purest form.

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