Free Agency Primer

By Giant_Causeway

The World Series may still be fresh in our minds but my attention has already turned to the free agent market. It would seem that this year's class doesn't quite look up to the standard of last year’s class when CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, AJ Burnett, Frankie Rodriguez, Bobby Abreu, Manny Ramirez, Adam Dunn and countless other big names were all freely available at the right price.

But nothing is that simple. GMs must also consider the Elias Rankings of free agent determining which free agents could result in high draft picks compensation for their former teams. Free agents are classed as Type A, Type B or unclassified. The compensation applies to free agents who must be offered salary arbitration by their former teams by a certain date (normally 1st December) or to those who sign before then. If a team signs a Type A player, its first round draft pick goes to that player’s former team unless that projected pick is in the top 15, in which case a second round pick goes to the former team. The former team also receive a “sandwich pick” between the first and second round of the draft. However, if a team loses a Type B free agent, it simply gets an extra sandwich pick with the signing team not losing anything. The types are calculated on statistics from the 08-09 seasons.

However there are already confusing rankings in this year’s class. For example how can the likes of Octavio Dotel, Kevin Gregg, John Grabow rank above Type B studs in Vladimir Guerrero, Carl Crawford (?!), Erik Bedard and Rich Harden??? This figures to be a hot topic at the next collective bargaining agreement. The impact, obviously, is that teams must really have to want a Type A player to sign him, because the loss of a high draft pick is not something to take lightly. Yes, the Diamondbacks cut Adam Dunn loose

A "fond farewell" Curt Schilling

last season without an offer of salary arbitration but their reasons were financial rather then baseball and plenty of teams will be pondering the financial risks of an unwanted player accepting salary arbitration.
 
Last off-season, we saw enduring stars in Curt Schilling, Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, Greg Maddux and Frank Thomas bade farewell to baseball, voluntarily or otherwise and plenty of older players struggling to attract teams who had shifted to youth in a bid to save money primarily but there is also the stigma of the steroid era attached to the older players. This is really a fascinating era in baseball from my point of view with the next generation of players all going through the process of establishing themselves. Jose Reyes, David Wright, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Ryan Braun and Felix Hernandez may not have the “name recognition” that the legends above enjoyed but they’re all in their twenties and should peak in the next few years.

With the global recession in mind and dwindling attendances, teams figure to either go through the trade route or play the patient game in a bid to find bargains. The legends of Tom Glavine, Randy Johnson, Jason Giambi, John Smoltz, Ivan Rodriguez, Gary Sheffield, Ken Griffey Jr., and possibly Pedro Martinez who were all elite players 10 years ago could either retire or be reduced to accepting a drastically reduced salary light years from their peak earnings. Last year’s top bargain was Bobby Abreu who signed with the Angels for just $5m and promptly put in a productive season leading to a 2 year extension.

We’ve seen a couple of trades already with the Brewers strangely trading JJ Hardy for a young centre-fielder in Carlos Gomez despite needing pitching and the Chicago White Sox trading for Mark Teahan despite his sub par defence at the hot corner with divisional rivals Kansas City Royals. Tim Hudson has agreed a contract extension with his home town club and already, there are plenty of trade chatters with Milton Bradley at the forefront given his strained relationship with the Cubs as well as plenty of proposed salary dumps. At this time of the year, teams will be tying up paperwork either by accepting contract options or buying out their players’ options and also going through the process of evaluating their rosters.

GMs will be looking to reduce payroll in all of MLB whilst also ensuring their targets are reasonably healthy to perform for the duration of the offered contract. As history tells us, there are plenty of bad contracts around with quite possibly the worst and priciest contract belonging to Vernon Wells who may have proven himself healthy, but with $98.5m due over the next 4 years, he is not performing anywhere near the levels of Alex Rodriguez or Mark Teixeira. With regards to pitching, teams are much more rigid in their pursuit of pitchers with the lessons of Mike Hampton primarily at the back of their minds.

The free agents, in the meantime must file for free agency with the average to slightly above average players hoping for nothing more then Type B status from the Elias Bureau given MLB teams’ emphasis on draft picks. But going on the last year, when plenty of free agents signed late, this could be the start of a new trend with late signings whilst GMs and free agents play their annual “blink first” game.

Labour movements elsewhere also figure to drive down market prices in certain positions as there are reportedly 87 players from Japan who filed for free agency! Though pitching and catching remains premium positions, the price for players overall should decrease. In this article, we take a look at the top free agents hoping to hit the jackpot and in the next few weeks, the possible bargains and the free agent minefields that GMs and fantasy gamers could do well to chance their arm on or avoid in the next few months. We start with an international flavour with two arms available on the open market and a trio of Canadians.

(Status or 2009 teams in parentheses)

Aroldis Chapman (Cuban Defector)

He first burst on the scene in the WBC tournament showing a triple digit fastball and a breaking ball clocked in the high 80s before defecting in the Netherlands. As a left-hander standing at 6ft 4” and given his young age (22), he should be at the centre of attention from most of the big market teams. Another Cuban defector, Jose Contreras was older when the Yankees won a bidding war going $32m over 4 years. Expect the price to go higher. However, there are recent reports suggesting his love of the nightlife allied to command issues means his market could be limited to solely the big market teams of New York, Boston and Los Angeles who could afford to “experiment” with Chapman in readiness for the big show. He’s still an exciting prospect and represents mystique as well as risk.

Ryota Igarishi (Japan)

A reliever who is widely credited with the fastest pitch by a Japanese pitcher when he recorded a figure of 98.5 mph in the Nippon Professional Baseball league. However, scouting reports suggest he has control issues and that presents a question mark of sorts. Kei Igawa anyone?! (Yankees) Or even Masahide Kobayashi?! (Indians) On the plus side, he is young at 30 yrs for a reliever and he’s made his intentions known from the previous year that he would like to try and succeed in MLB making money a secondary issue given he would likely command a closer’s salary if he had insisted on staying in Japan. The Red Sox would be an obvious destination given the Japanese contingent in Beantown. The Mariners and other West Coast clubs are often mooted as potential destinations for Japanese players given the closer proximity to home.

Jason Bay (Boston Red Sox)

This left fielder does not quite figure as an elite slugger given his offensive numbers and declining defensive skills but still, he figures to command a contract larger then the one offered by the Red Sox in the region of $60m over 4 years. Quite what he has done to warrant such a contract is a mystery as there are surely far cheaper and similar alternatives on the market or via trades who could offer similar offensive help. At 31 yr old, teams really should limit the dollars and years to a region of 3 yrs and $40m. The Yankees could get involved if they do not resign Damon but despite being younger, Damon should be the Yankees’ number choice. If Bay manages a contract north of $12m per season that only highlights the declining standards in hitting or quite possibly, the rising cost of an average slugger batting .280 for his career.

Erik Bedard (Seattle Mariners)

A couple of years ago, the Canadian had looked to be on his way to top money and elite status having toiled impressively in the stacked AL East. But then the Orioles traded him to the Mariners and almost immediately, he broke down with injuries. He’s still a very good pitcher and as a lefty, he figures to attract plenty of attention. However teams will be wary of his recent injury history and like Sheets and Harden, two other potentially elite pitchers, having only pitched 15 games in each of the previous two seasons, his contract will be severely diminished in this current climate having only totalled 81 and 83 innings respectively in the previous two seasons. He’s definitely worth a gamble if healthy and something like Andy Pettitte’s 2009 deal with the Yankees ($5.5m in base salary with $5m in performance bonuses) is a reasonable short term contract for both parties should Bedard pass clubs’ fitness tests.

Rich Harden (Chicago Cubs)

Rich Harden is another injury prone pitcher with arguably the best stuff in all of MLB. He’s struggled with injuries throughout his career but looked to enjoy an injury free season in 2009 pitching in 26 games but only logging 141 innings for the year. However, he had only pitched 25.2, 77 and 71 innings in 2006, 2007 and 2008 in injury shortened seasons. The question for suitors of which there will surely be plenty, how will the big jump from 71 innings in 2008 to 141 innings in 2009 affect Harden? He had adopted a new conditioning program last winter and I had hopes for a full season even if he was not back to his best. As quality pitching is in short supply, I would suggest Harden is well worth the gamble, like Erik Bedard for a single year with a similar contract to the one Andy Pettitte received this season.

Hideki Matsui (New York Yankees)

Coming of a World Series MVP performance and a World Series ring, he really should be coveted at first glance. However, his balky knees have severely limited his ability to play defence and only AL teams will consider employing Matsui as their DH. But with the current economic climate and the evolution of AL teams in using the DH slot to give defensive players a rest from the field, the market for Matsui figures to be limited. The Yankees and the Mariners are obvious destinations though he could command plenty of attention back home should he wish to end his career in Japan. The Yankees has already suggested they are looking to get younger and reduce payroll making a return to Yankee Stadium a long shot of sorts whilst the Mariners are just about mentioned as possible destinations for Japanese players. They have the money and the need for a DH but do they have serious ambitions of running with the Angels for the AL West?

Matt Holliday (St. Louis Cardinals)

This slugger had long been earmarked as this season’s top free agent. Having turned down multi-million dollars extension to stay in Colorado, he was promptly traded to the Athletics but flopped after some dubious advice from disgraced slugger, Mark McGwuire. With his trade and free agent value dwindling, the Cardinals made a deal with the Athletics and with the trade to the Cardinals came the return of Holliday’s famed leg kick and the return of his Colorado numbers. But there’s a subplot to Holliday. Whilst he has made public his desire to return to the Cardinals, the club must also negotiate with uber agent Scott Boras who has already stated he is looking for a similar contract given to Mark Teixeira last off-season! $181m over 8 years! Is he worth the money? Only one answer to that and that is a resounding NO! Would Holliday allow the Cardinals to offer a “hometown” discount the way Tim Hudson did with the Braves? Asides from the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets and Cardinals, the market for Holliday figures to be limited as it tends to be with elite Scott Boras clients. The only way he could get Teixeira money is if the Yankees and the Red Sox start a silly bidding war but that is highly unlikely with both sides holding plenty of options for the left field job. What’s he worth? As a left fielder at 30 yrs of age, teams should give a maximum of 6 years as a framework regarding length. The bottom line comes down to comparable left fielders with good contact rate, walk rate and above all, power. Manny Ramirez anyone??

That’s it for this week. Next week we will continue to look at the free agents widely regarded as the top tier of this year’s class.

Giant_Causeway